NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Knicks vs. Cavaliers (Monday)
We might have a team in the NBA Finals by the end of tonight. The New York Knicks have been absolutely unstoppable over the last month. They’re on a 10-game winning streak and are up 3-0 against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. One more win and the New York Knicks are in. Here are a few Market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game that have a ton of value.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
James Harden Under 4.5 Rebounds (+110 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +101
- Market EV: +4%
James Harden has earned at least five rebounds in five of his last six games. But he’s only averaged 8.7 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games. He added six rebounds on seven chances in Game 2 of this series. That would be hard to sustain.
You can bet on him to go under 4.5 rebounds at +110 odds on BetMGM. The fair value is +101. That’s a 4% positive expected value play and a wager you’ll certainly want to lock in if you’re looking for some value in this game.
Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (-106 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -117
- Market EV: +5%
Evan Mobley has added at least two blocks in nine of his last 10 games. The one time he didn’t was in Game 3 of this series. Ultimately, Mobley added at least two blocks in 51% of his games this season and nailed this line in 55% of his last 20 games. He’s been consistent and is getting 37+ minutes a night in the playoffs.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Mobley to add at least two blocks at -106 odds. That’s way better than the fair value of -117. It’s a 5% market expected value play, which is one of the best plays you’ll see on the betting board today.
Get it while you can.
James Harden Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +1%
James Harden has only hit one three-pointer in two games this series against the Knicks. Still, he’s attempted seven or more threes in each of those games. Harden has just shot awfully from downtown in those games.
Yet, Harden has still hit over 36% from the field from deep throughout the season. He’s in a rough stretch, but in a must-win game for the Cavaliers, look for Harden to step up and hit some shots.
There’s a 1% play on Harden’s threes. You can add Harden to nail at least three three-pointers at +124 on FanDuel Sportsbook, when the fair value is at +121. It’s not a huge play, but it has legitimate value. Consider it while it’s available.