NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (11/7)
Last night brought some wild Emirates NBA Cup matchups. But despite yesterday’s many games, tonight’s slate is still strong. We even have a Nuggets-Pacers game in Mexico City. Anyway, check out the market-based +EV NBA picks for tonight’s games.
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Saturday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Scoot Henderson Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -175
- Market EV: +17%
Scoot Henderson hasn’t hit the over on this line this season. But with Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe out, Henderson’s minutes have increased. In a back-to-back, the Blazers could rest Damian Lillard and bench a couple of starters. Therefore, grabbing Henderson to hit the over on this combo prop looks to be the move.
This is a 17% market EV play. Ultimately, the fair value for Henderson’s over is -175. You can get this bet at -120 on Hard Rock Bet. That’s huge.
Jalen Green Under 15.5 Points (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -130
- Market EV: +9%
Jalen Green finished with just six points against Orlando last time out. He played 24 minutes but took only seven shots. His usage also dropped to 16.9% against Orlando.
Green’s under for this prop is -108 at DraftKings Spotbook, but the fair value is -130. This is a +9 % expected-value play. Only two of the last five shooting guards have hit their over against the Rockets. Even though he’s going up against his old team, I still don’t have enough confidence he’ll get to 16 points.
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-130 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -159
- Market EV: +9%
Over the last five games, Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 4.8 threes per game. He’s already had two games with just one three-pointer out of the last five.
Last night, without Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers held Joel Embiid to zero three-pointers. They also held Myles Turner to just one three-pointer a week ago. Towns has a similar game, even if he’s a better three-point shooter than both of them.
Towns nailed at least two threes in 42% of games last year. He’s also hit this line in just 20% of his last 10 games against the Cavaliers.
At -130 on Novig, you can bet on Towns to go under 1.5 made threes. It’s one of the best NBA plays on the board, with 9% positive expected value. Take it and enjoy your closing line value.