NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Spurs vs. Thunder (Tuesday)
The Eastern Conference is settled with the New York Knicks coming out on top. Now, we’ve got at least a couple of more games before we can decide the Western Conference champion. Here are a few Market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s Game 5 matchup between the Spurs and Thunder.
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Tuesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Luguentz Dort Over 0.5 Blocks (+340 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +268
- Market EV: +19%
Luguentz Dort hasn’t recorded a block since April 27th against the Phoenix Suns. He had at least one block in only 28% of games this season.
That said, there’s a ton of value at +340 odds on BetMGM for him to record a block today. The fair value is +268. That’s a 19% positive expected value. While not a likely outcome, it’s a value play. If you made this play many times throughout the season, you’d more than likely see a heavy profit.
Let’s side with the over here.
Alex Caruso Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-110 at Hard Rock)
- Fair Value: -123
- Market EV: +5%
Alex Caruso has hit at least three three-pointers in four of his last five games. However, the game in which he didn’t hit this line was Game 4. Caruso played just 14 minutes and couldn’t even get a three-point shot up.
The Spurs made adjustments, forcing Caruso to be less impactful. After a massive win in Game 4, the Spurs won’t change the game plan in Game 5. Caruso will likely be a non-factor. You can land Caruso to go under 1.5 made three-pointers at -110, when the fair value is set at -123. That’s a 5% positive expected value play.
Alex Caruso Under 2.5 Rebounds (+130 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +127
- Market EV: +1%
Alex Caruso also finished with just two rebounds in Game 4. Again, his minutes were down, his usage was down and his overall production was down as a result. Again, it seems the Spurs made an adjustment to disrupt Caruso’s rhythm, and it worked in Game 4. If Caruso isn’t making big shots and doing big things, he won’t play nearly as much as he was to begin the series.
That should help keep his rebounds down. Take the under on his rebounds prop, even if it’s just a 1% positive expected value play.