NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Spurs vs. Thunder (Wednesday)
We’ve got two incredible matchups in the NBA Conference Finals. Both games went into overtime, including Game 1 of the Spurs-Thunder Western Conference Finals. Game 2 should be just as good. Here are a few Market Based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game. There’s plenty of value on the board, so let’s get cooking.
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Wednesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated | Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Alex Caruso Under 10.5 Points (+100)
- Fair Value: -109
- Market EV: +4%
Alex Caruso put on a show in Game 1, scoring 31 points in 32 minutes. He had a 33.1% usage rate and even reached the foul line, which is super rare for him.
Caruso lit it up. But the reality is that he’s scored at least 11 points in only 18% of games this season. The Spurs are typically much better defensively against shooting guards, ranking third in the NBA in points allowed to the position.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Thunder will need to be more aggressive and score more. The Thunder aren’t going to win many games if Alex Caruso is the team’s leading scorer.
Consider Carsuo to go under 10.5 points in Game 2 at +100 odds on BetMGM. The fair value here is -109, making this a 4% positive expected value play.
Victor Wembanyama Over 13.5 Rebounds (+100)
- Fair Value: -106
- Market EV: +3%
Victor Wembanyama is one of the best players in the NBA. He added 24 rebounds on 35 chances in Game 1. Of course, the game went to double overtime, but he still managed plenty of rebounds before the game launched into extra time.
Wembanyama has grabbed at least 14 rebounds in six of his last 10 games. He’s also hit this line in 60% of his last 20 games. Additionally, he’s averaged nearly 19 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games.
You can add Wembanyama to go over 13.5 rebounds at +100 odds on BetMGM, while his fair value market is -106. This is another top play on the board.
Cason Wallace Under 2.5 Rebounds (+125)
- Fair Value: +120
- Market EV: +2%
Some bettors will have some recency bias with Cason Wallace. He added six rebounds in Game 1 of this series on eight rebound chances. But he hauled in no more than two rebounds in three straight games before this one.
BetMGM has more value with this bet, offering Wallace to go under 2.5 rebounds at +125. The fair value is +120, giving this play a 2% positive expected value.
If you continue to add these types of bets to your portfolio, you’ll see plenty of success.