NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Sunday (5/3)
We nailed two of our top +EV NBA picks last night using the BettingPros MarketBased EV page for the NBA. Let’s keep that momentum going with today’s two-game slate in the NBA.
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Sunday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Jamal Cain Over 3.5 Rebounds (+125 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +6%
Jamal Cain has played at least 20 minutes in three consecutive games. During that stretch, he’s had at least eight rebound chances in all three of those games. In addition, he’s grabbed at least four rebounds in all three contests and has become a legitimate x-factor for the Orlando Magic in this series.
You can find this bet at +125 on BetMGM, despite the fair value sitting at just +112. That’s a 6% positive expected value play. Grab this line while it’s there.
Collin Murray-Boyles Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -104
- Market EV: +5%
Collin Murray-Boyles has added at least seven rebounds in four of his last five games. In Game 4, he had 27 rebound chances. In all but one game, he’s had at least 11 rebound chances against the Cavaliers in this series.
The Toronto rookie has averaged 7.4 rebounds per game over the last five games and will battle a Cavaliers team that is still below average in defensive rebounds allowed to power forwards.
At +105 odds, you can’t go wrong here. This bet has a fair value of -104, and a market EV of +5%. If you continue to place bets like this, the profit will start to show over the long term.
Evan Mobley Under 2.5 Assists (+118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +111
- Market EV: +3%
Evan Mobley has consistently hit this prop line, including four of his last six games. That said, he’s had only four potential assists in three games this season. Mobley has been a bit lucky with his teammates consistently hitting shots. But that might not happen in a Game 7, when you’d expect defenses to tighten up.
You can get the under on his assists prop today at +118 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, while his fair value is set at just +111. That’s another big-time play, especially with the market EV at +3%.