NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thunder vs. Spurs (Friday)
We’ve got a pivotal Game 3 in San Antonio tonight. The Spurs and Thunder are locked in a 1-1 tie in the Western Conference Finals. Whoever can pull out a win tonight will take the lead in the series. Here are a few Market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game. There’s a lot of value on the board.
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Friday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Assists (+138 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +128
- Market EV: +4%
Chet Holmgren finished Game 2 with two assists. He’s only hit this line in 35% of his last 20 games. But he’s averaged 1.9 assists in his last 11 games against the Spurs, adding at least two assists in seven of those games.
Despite this, you can bet on Holmgren to add at least two assists at +138 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s some really good value for a player who will likely go over 25 minutes tonight. Let’s ride his assists over as one of the top value plays on the board.
Luguentz Dort Over 6.5 Points (+125 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +2%
Luguentz Dort has scored at least seven points in 53% of his games this season. He’s hit this line in 50% of his last 20 games and has nailed this line in six of his last 11 games against the Spurs.
Dort played a playoff-low 16 minutes for the Thunder in Game 2, but still managed to score eight points. His usage rate was up to 15.5% during that game, and he even got to the foul line.
You can bet on Dort to go over 6.5 points at +125 odds on BetMGM, while his fair value is currently at +121. That’s a 2% positive expected value. While it doesn’t seem like much, if you stack these bets over the year, you should see long-term profit.
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals (+125 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +116
- Market EV: +4%
Cason Wallace has always been known for his defense, specifically in the steals department. Wallace gained four steals in Game 2 and earned another two steals in Game 1 of this series. He’s averaged 1.9 steals per game over his last 14 games against the Spurs, hitting this line in nine of those games.
You can bet on Wallace to go over 1.5 steals at +125 odds, while the fair value is +116. That’s another massive play on the Market-Based EV betting board. Grab it while you can.