NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thunder vs. Spurs (Sunday)
There’s a pivotal Game 3 matchup on the horizon tonight in the NBA. The San Antonio Spurs will look to tie up the Western Conference Finals two apiece. If not, they’ll be in bad territory, down 3-1, and on the road in Game 5. That said, here are a few Market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game that you’ll want to check out.
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Sunday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated | Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jared McCain Under 2.5 Rebounds (+130)
- Fair Value: +118
- Market EV: +6%
Jared McCain has hauled in at least four rebounds in back-to-back games. But he’s still hit this line in only 35% of games this season and has added at least three rebounds in just three of his last 10 games.
McCain has averaged only 3.2 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games and has a fair value of +118 on his under 2.5 rebounds line. BetMGM is offering +130 odds, which is a 6% market expected value. That’s easily the best play on the board. Grab it if it’s still available.
Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Assists (-150)
- Fair Value: -162
- Market EV: +3%
Chet Holmgren has had no more than two potential assists in four of his last five games. He’s added at least two assists in just 35% of his last 20 games. He’s improved his assist numbers this season, but it’s still not great.
Anyway, you can bet he goes under 1.5 assists at -150 on BetMGM, when the fair market value is stuck at -162. That’s a 3% positive expected value play that you’ll absolutely want to add to your betting portfolio.
Jalen Williams Under 3.5 Rebounds (+105)
- Fair Value: +101
- Market EV: +2%
Jalen Williams finished Game 3 with only one rebound. He’s had two games with just one rebound in his last three outings. Williams has had games with a ton of rebound chances and others with very few. Meanwhile, he only played seven minutes in Game 3 for the Thunder.
At BetMGM, you can bet on Williams to go under 3.5 rebounds at +105. But the fair value across other sportsbooks is +101. That’s a 2% positive expected value play, and another opportunity to land a big play before the game begins.