NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thunder vs. Spurs (Thursday)
There’s plenty of value for tonight’s Game 6 matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. Despite there being just one game in the NBA, the Market-based EV page has more than 10 valuable bets. I’ve shared my top NBA picks below.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Assists (+138 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +117
- Market EV: +10%
Devin Vassell has earned at least three assists in back-to-back games. He’s had 10 potential assists combined in the last two games and has played over 35 minutes a night during this series.
Vassell has hit this line in six of his last 10 games and has averaged 3.4 assists in his last 13 games against the Thunder.
Meanwhile, you can land Vassell to add at least three assists at +138 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is a 10% positive expected value play. The fair value for this prop is +117. This is the biggest play on the board right now.
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 Points (+130 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +113
- Market EV: +8%
Chet Holmgren scored 16 points in Game 5 after playing almost 30 minutes. He’s shot at least 50% in three of his last five games and has attempted almost 11 shots per game over the last 10 games.
You can find Chet Holmgren to add at least 15 points at +130 on BetMGM. After consulting all other sportsbooks, the fair value is +113, yielding a positive expected value of 8%. This is another huge bet on the board. If it’s still there, consider a wager on it as soon as possible.
Cason Wallace Under 2.5 Assists (-109 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -118
- Market EV: +4%
Cason Wallace finished with five assists in 31 minutes in Game 5. However, he’s averaged only 4.2 potential assists per game over his last 10 playoff games. Wallace has hit at least three assists in only 46% of games this season. In his last 20 games, he’s nailed this line in just 30% of games.
Wallace has had recent success, but we can’t get carried away over that. Let’s bet on him to go under 2.5 assists at -109 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The fair value is -118, and the market positive EV is currently 4%.