NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thursday (4/30)
I’ve been searching for the most valuable plays in the NBA tonight. With help from the BettingPros Market Based EV page, I’m feeling very confident with tonight’s NBA picks and prop bets.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
Gabe Vincent Over 3.5 Points (+115)
- Fair Value: -113
- Market EV: +14%
Gabe Vincent has scored at least five points in three consecutive games. Yet, BetMGM still carries a +115 line for Vincent to score over 3.5 points. He took seven three-point attempts in Game 5 and played nearly 24 minutes with a 14% usage rate.
That volume alone makes me feel good about Vincent scoring at least four points. He’s hit two foul shots in at least two of his last three games and has attempted six or more shots in back-to-back games.
With the market EV at 14%, this is a top play on the board.
Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 4.5 Rebounds (+115)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +3%
In this first-round series against the Celtics, Kelly Oubre Jr. has earned at least five rebounds in all but one game. In the one where he didn’t grab five boards, he finished with four. Ultimately, he’s had at least nine rebound chances in every game of this series. Oubre has also played at least 30 minutes in every game of this series.
If he’s able to get at least nine rebound chances again tonight, he’ll likely finish with five or more rebounds. The fair value of this bet is at +108, and the market EV is 3%. That’s a strong play for the betting portfolio.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
- Fair Value: -117
- Market EV: +1%
The Timberwolves are going to ask a lot from Julius Randle right now. They need one more win to advance to the next round without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo. Randle added six assists in Game 5 and played more than 32 minutes in that game. He’s hit at least five assists in nine of his last 14 games against the Nuggets and has averaged 5.4 assists in those games.
This is a small EV play, but on paper, it looks a whole lot better. Randle should fill up the box score tonight, including the assists category. Take his over.