NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thursday (5/7)
I’m eying some really good positive expected value plays in the NBA using the Market Based EV page. These lines don’t last forever, so jump on them while you can!
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Wednesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Rebounds (+140 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +117
- Market EV: +11%
Duncan Robinson has added at least three rebounds in three of his last four games. He struggled to add a rebound against the Cavaliers in Game 1 of this series. But before that game, he had three games with at least seven rebound chances.
His fair value is set at +117, but Bet MGM is offering +140 for Robinson to go Over 2.5 rebounds. Robinson has been consistent despite adding no boards in Game 1. With this value, let’s take Robinson to add at least three rebounds. He’s hit this line in more than 50 percent of games this season.
Jalen Duren Under 14.5 Points (+100 at Hard Rock, +118 at Caesars)
- Fair Value: -108
- Market EV: +4%
Jalen Duren has scored no more than 15 points in any of his last eight games. He’s had one game with 15, and in the other seven games, he’s finished with less than 15 points. Duren’s usage hasn’t exceeded 18 percent in five consecutive games, too.
Additionally, he’s hit this line in four of his last 14 games against the Cavaliers. At +100, we’ll gladly take the Under, knowing the fair value for this bet is at -108.
Rui Hachimura Under 3.5 Rebounds (+110 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +104
- Market EV: +3%
Rui Hachimura finished with just two rebounds in Game 1 of this series. He was getting way more opportunities in the series against Houston. But the opportunities likely won’t be there as much against the Thunder.
He’s got a +110 price tag at Bet MGM to go Under 3.5 rebounds. Meanwhile, the fair value is at +104, giving this play a +3% positive expected value. His chances are still below 50 percent to hit this line, but we’re getting serious value at +110. Grab this line while you can!