NBA Play-In Tournament First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/16)
We’ve got another two NBA Play-In Tournament games on the horizon tonight. It’s do or die for all four teams, so they want to start hot and secure early leads.
I’ve added my two favorite first-basket bets for tonight’s slate.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic will compete for the tip against Bam Adebayo of the Heat. Vucevic has only won the tip in 35% of games this season. As a result, the Bulls have scored first just 48% of the time this year.
Meanwhile, Adebayo has won the tip in 68% of games this season. He’s helped the Heat score first 57% of the time this year. In addition, Adebayo has already won two opening tips against Vucevic this season. It’s way more likely that Adebayo and the Heat win the tip and attempt the first shot in this game.
That said, the Bulls have allowed the first basket to point guards 26% of the time this season. At point guard for the Heat currently is Tyler Herro. Herro only has three first baskets in 40 games played, so he’s not the best candidate. But his value to score first is much higher against the Bulls. Let’s take a chance on Herro to score first in tonight’s game.
Pick: Tyler Herro (+600)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
To start the second NBA Play-In Tournament matchup, it’ll be Anthony Davis of the Mavericks facing off against Domantas Sabonis of the Sacramento Kings. Sabonis has won the tip in only 28% of games this season, while Davis has won the tip in 58% of games.
In addition, the Mavericks have scored first 56% of the time this season, while the Kings have enjoyed the first basket in only 51% of games. However, Sabonis has still won the tip three out of four times against Davis, so that’s something to think about. Still, the analytics and stats favor Davis winning the tip and the Mavericks earning the first shot attempt.
Ultimately, the Kings have allowed the first basket to shooting guards 28% of the time and centers 25% of the time. We’ll want to attack those two positions. The Mavericks will use Klay Thompson at shooting guard and Dereck Lively II at center.
Thompson has only scored the first basket six times this season. However, he’s added the first field goal attempt in 29% of games this season, which is the most of any player expected on the floor to start. Thompson will likely have the first chance to score for the Mavericks. Let’s roll with him at +900 odds.
Pick: Klay Thompson (+900)