NBA Play-In Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/16)
The favorites took control in yesterday’s two NBA Play-In Tournament games. Will that be the same case today?
I’ve added two NBA best bets for tonight’s two-game tournament slate. Let’s get to it.
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Tuesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls won all three games against the Miami Heat in the regular season. Still, all three games finished by a single-digit margin, so it wasn’t like the Bulls earned blowouts in these head-to-head matchups.
The most recent matchup saw the Bulls earn a 119-111 win on April 9th. Tyler Herro dropped 30 points and Bam Adebayo scored 18. However, the rest of the lineup struggled to get going. The Heat shot just 47.8% from the field and hit only 64.7% from the foul line.
Ultimately, the Bulls have limited teams to a 54.1% effective field goal percentage. They’ve also held teams to 26.2% of offensive rebounds. Beyond that, the Bulls don’t allow teams to get to the foul line consistently. Chicago is just bad at forcing turnovers, but everything else defensively is sound.
Meanwhile, the Heat are just as good defensively. Miami has held teams to 113.3 points per 100 possessions, limiting opponents to 26.4% of offensive rebounds and one of the lowest free-throw rates in the NBA.
This is significant, especially since the Bulls rank 28th in offensive rebounds and 29th in free-throw rate. Don’t expect the Bulls to take advantage of either area.
Therefore, the under is calling my name.
Pick: Under 219 Points (-110)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
The Dallas Mavericks still made the NBA Play-In Tournament despite all the injuries and transactions made in the second half of the season. The Mavericks traded away Luka Doncic and brought in Anthony Davis in a blockbuster trade. However, as soon as Davis played with the Mavericks, he got injured and missed some time. As Davis was recovering, Kyrie Irving got hurt and is out for the season with a torn ACL.
The Mavericks had the makings of a championship contender. Now they’ll need to find a way to win two games in the NBA Play-In Tournament to earn a playoff spot in the first round against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Yet, the Mavericks’ front office has no regrets.
Dallas has already lost three times to the Kings this season. The most recent loss came on March 3rd when the Mavericks fell 122-98 to the Kings at home. But to be fair, that was the exact game where Irving tore his ACL just minutes into the game. In addition, the Mavericks didn’t have Anthony Davis healthy. All the life was sucked out of the Mavericks in that game.
They’ll respond tonight.
Dallas should be able to find offense against a Kings defense that has allowed a 56.1% effective field goal percentage. The Kings are good on the defensive glass but are below average in every other major defensive category.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have limited opponents to a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. Dallas invested in Davis for his defense, which Doncic didn’t deliver. Expect the Mavericks to play much better defense and limit the Kings. After all, the Kings have only shot a 54.9% effective field goal percentage with 28.2% of offensive rebounds. Both rates are slightly below average.
I’ll ride the Mavericks +4.5.
Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110)