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NBA Play of the Day for November 13th, 2019

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Today’s NBA play of the day features two teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference. The Philadelphia 76ers are tied for third place with a 7-3 record. Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic have dropped five of their last six contests and are 3-7 on the season. The result of this matchup will not be in much doubt if Joel Embiid suits up. However, he is a potential candidate to be rested as head coach Brett Brown declined to commit to playing the franchise big man when pressed before last night’s game. That said, the Sixers barely beat the Cavaliers with Embiid, and they may not want to risk an embarrassing loss to the Magic so early in the season. This will be a more entertaining matchup than the teams’ records may indicate. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3 on Philadelphia. The over/under total opened at 208.5 points. The point spread has held firm at -5.5. The consensus over/under has held steady at 208.5. 
  • Current Line: Philadelphia -3
  • O/U: 208.5
  • Location: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
  • Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Wednesday, November 13th
  • Last Meeting: Orlando defeated Philadelphia 119-98 – March 25, 2019

Overview 

The Philadelphia 76ers sit at 7-3 on the season and are currently on a two-game winning streak. Ben Simmons returned to action last night against Cleveland, but the team was without key offseason addition Al Horford, who was rested due to the Sixers playing back to back. Philadelphia is tied for third place in the Eastern Conference and have the talent to remain one of the top three teams throughout the regular season. This team is not as strong as the 2018-19 version that gave the eventual NBA champion Toronto Raptors their toughest test of the playoffs, but they stand out above the rest from a talent perspective due to Kawhi Leonard leaving Toronto, and Kyrie Irving and Al Horford leaving Boston. Though they have not exactly faced world-beaters, the Sixers are undefeated against the Eastern Conference through five games. 

The Orlando Magic sit at 3-7 on the season, but they are a more talented team than their record suggests. Although they are 0-4 on the road, the Magic are 3-3 at home. The Magic have yet to beat a good team this season, and they will have their hands full with the Philadelphia 76ers. For a Magic team whose top healthy offseason addition was Al-Farouq Aminu, former 76ers first overall pick Markelle Fultz may be the key piece that determines whether or not the Magic make the playoffs this season. The more likely scenario is that the Magic welcome a lottery pick to the floor in 2020. A lottery pick, plus the return of redshirt rookie Chuma Okeke will give the Magic a much-needed infusion of talent. 

Trends 

  • The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams. 
  • The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams. 
  • Over is 9-4 in the last 13 contests between these two teams. 
  • Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in their last four Wednesday contests. 
  • Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests following a loss ATS.
  • Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests on zero days of rest. 
  • Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Philadelphia is 1-3-1 in their last five contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in their last six contests against the Southeast division. 
  • Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday contests. 
  • Orlando is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 contests against the Atlantic division. 
  • Orlando is 1-7 ATS  in their last eight contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Orlando is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 14-3 in Philadelphia’s last 17 contests on zero days of rest.
  • Under is 9-3 in Philadelphia’s last 12 contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven contests against the Southeast division.
  • Over is 10-4 in Philadelphia’s last 14 contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Orlando’s last eight home contests. 
  • Under is 8-2-1 in Orlando’s last 11 contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Under is 6-1 in Orlando’s last seven contests against the Atlantic division. 
  • Under is 11-3-1 in Orlando’s last 15 contests.

Prop Bets 

Due to the uncertainty of Joel Embiid’s availability, there were no Philadelphia 76ers player props on FanDuel at the time of writing. Our player props would have come from Philadelphia as opposed to the Magic, so the suggested prop is just a one-unit play. 

Nikola Vucevic over 17.5 points (-112)
Nikola Vucevic should have his way with the Philadelphia 76ers’ frontcourt if Joel Embiid misses the contest. Even if he plays, Vucevic is active enough from deep and on the boards to eclipse this total against the 76ers. Philadelphia will likely control the pace, which means the Magic should score more than their season average of 98.1 points. The juice for this prop is currently on the over, which suggests that despite minimal movement, the sharp and early money came in on the over. Vucevic seems like the smartest play of the Orlando Magic player props. He has cleared this total in three straight contests, and in six of his 10 games on the season. Vucevic averages 20.5 points per game at home compared to just 12.5 per contest on the road. Lock this one in before the odds shift.

Bottom Line

While the consensus point spread currently sits at -3 on the 76ers, our live odds page shows us that we can lock in Philadelphia at -2.5 at BetMGM. Joel Embiid played 35 minutes last night and, as mentioned above, and is a potential load management candidate. The point spread is off the board at most books due to the uncertainty of Embiid’s availability. Philadelphia has a +4.4 scoring margin, and even if Embiid does sit, Al Horford, who was rested yesterday, will be back in action. Ben Simmons also returned yesterday and will have to look for his offense more if the Sixers star big man is rested. This is more of a gamble than some may be used to as an Embiid led 76ers team should easily cover this spread. Without Embiid, the Magic have a much higher outright win probability. For 10 cents juice on a one-unit play, the Sixers look like the top spread play of the day. 

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.