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NBA Play of the Day for November 18, 2019

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It is still early, but the Phoenix Suns have been the most impressive team in the NBA this season. With only 11 games down, we have completed just over an eighth of the 82 game schedule, but the upstart Suns already have multiple statement wins. Tonight they will be facing off against a Boston Celtics team with the second-best winning percentage in the NBA. The Celtics are one of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference, and the most surprising thing about their 9-2 schedule is their loss last night to the Sacramento Kings. The Phoenix Suns currently sit as -3 point favorites. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the Phoenix Suns. The consensus over/under total opened at 227.5 points. The point spread has seen some movement throughout the night, first falling to -2.5 on Phoenix, before rising to -3. The over/under total has also seen some movement and now sits at 227 points even. 
  • Current Line: Phoenix -3
  • O/U: 227
  • Location: Talking Stick Resort Arena
  • Start Time: 9:00 PM EST, Monday, November 18th
  • Last Meeting: Phoenix defeated Boston 111-103 – December 19, 2018

Overview

The Boston Celtics have been the hottest team in the NBA. After an opening night loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics reeled off nine straight wins before suffering their second loss of the season last night to the Sacramento Kings. They will face the Suns tonight in the second half of a back to back. Gordon Hayward is sidelined with a broken hand, but players like Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have shined in their expanded roles. Boston will be looking to kick off a new winning streak as the betting underdogs against the better than expected Phoenix Suns.

The Phoenix Suns have been the surprise team of the season. They currently sit with a 7-4 record that is much more impressive when one considers that franchise big man DeAndre Ayton played in just one game this season. They have beaten playoff teams like the Los Angeles Clippers, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Brooklyn Nets. Ayton was suspended for 25 games for using a banned diuretic and still has 15 games to serve. 

Trends

  • Boston is 0-7 ATS in their last seven contests against Phoenix. 
  • Boston is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests in Phoenix. 
  • The underdog is 7-0 in the last seven contests between these two teams. 
  • Boston is 6-4 ATS on the season. 
  • Boston is 3-3 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Phoenix is 9-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Phoenix is 6-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Boston is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Boston is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests against teams in the Western Conference. 
  • Boston is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road contests against teams with winning home records. 
  • Boston is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Boston is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests played on zero days of rest.
  • Phoenix is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests.
  • Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home contests. 
  • Phoenix is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Monday contests.
  • Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests following a win ATS.  
  • Under is 6-2 in Boston’s last eight road contests. 
  • Under is 5-0 in Boston’s last five contests played on zero days of rest. 
  • Over is 8-3 in Boston’s last 11 contests following a straight-up loss.
  • Over is 5-2 in Boston’s last seven contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 5-0 in Phoenix’s last five contests. 
  • Over is 5-0 in Phoenix’s last five home contests. 
  • Over is 6-0 in Phoenix’s last six contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Over is 10-3 in Phoenix’s last 13 Monday contests. 

Prop Bets 

Jaylen Brown over 20.5 points (-106)
Before the 18 point outing against Sacramento last night, Jaylen Brown had at least 20 points in four straight games. He has averaged 23.4 points per game over that time span. Brown has cleared the posted total in every game that he has taken at least 17 shots in. The Celtics will be facing the Phoenix Suns tonight. This means there will be some extra possessions to be had. According to TeamRankings, the Suns are seventh in possessions per game. They are fourth in points per game. With extra possessions to work with, Brown should be able to hit the 17 shot threshold needed to clear the 20.5 point total here. The early juice has actually sided with the under here, but we will be siding with recent trends and the team pace data. Lock in Brown as a multi-unit play.

Bottom Line

The Boston Celtics opened as surprising underdogs to an ascendant Phoenix Suns basketball team. The Suns have far exceeded all expectations, and have done so without center DeAndre Ayton. The Suns have been impressive all season and already have some marquee wins under their belt, but are likely only pegged as favorites due to the fact that the Celtics are playing in the second half of a road back to back following a tough loss. The Celtics are the better team here and have a much better outright win probability than the odds suggest. The Suns opened as -3.5 favorites, but were quickly moved to -2.5 favorites and held there for much of the night. They have since moved to -3, once again presenting value on the Celtics side. Phoenix winning by four or more points is going to be a tough ask out of a team without one of their top two players. Roll with the Celtics.

Pick: Boston Celtics -3 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.