NBA Player Props & Bets: Tuesday (10/21)
A brand new season of the NBA starts tonight with a doubleheader that features two matchups in the Western Conference. Both games can be found on NBC and Peacock.
In the first game, the Houston Rockets will face the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder won it all last year, but they’ll be without Jalen Williams to start the season. It’ll be interesting to see how Kevin Durant performs with his new team. Meanwhile, Fred VanVleet is already out for the season with an injury, which surely won’t help Houston.
In the second matchup, it’s the Golden State Warriors against the Los Angeles Lakers. Unfortunately, LeBron James will miss some time due to an injury. But we’ll still get to watch stars like Luka Doncic and Steph Curry.
Below, I’ve added a couple of NBA player props you’ll want to consider for tonight’s two-game Opening Night slate.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (+107 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored at least 33 points in 10 of his last 20 games (in the playoffs) heading into Opening Night. In the previous 10 games, he averaged 8.4 free throws made, his usage was up to 35.2% and he took nearly 23 shots per game, while shooting 44.4% from the field.
Last year, the Rockets ranked dead last in points allowed per game to point guards. Houston also allowed the most field goals made by point guards last season, while ranking 29th in field goals attempted by point guards.
With Jalen Williams already inactive for Game 1, you’d have to imagine Gilgeous-Alexander will take more shots. Who knows, he might’ve even gotten better from downtown during the offseason. After all, in the final game of the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 12 three-pointers. He didn’t shoot very well from beyond the arc, but he was certainly confident.
Ultimately, Gilgeous-Alexander should find his way to the foul line consistently and take plenty of shots to score at least 33 points. Expect a classic performance from last season’s MVP.
Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds (+107 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Deandre Ayton will get the start at center for the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s seriously what the Lakers have missed over the last couple of years. He’ll start alongside Luka Doncic, Gabe Vincent, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura.
Last season, Ayton played about 30 minutes a night and totaled more than 15 rebound chances per game. He averaged just over seven defensive rebounds per game and will now face a Warriors unit that ranked dead last in defensive rebounds allowed to centers per game. The Warriors also ranked 28th in total rebounds allowed to centers.
It was so bad that the Warriors also ranked 24th last season in double-doubles allowed to centers. While the Warriors added Al Horford at the center position, it’s not like they added an elite rebounder who will beat Ayton on the glass every possession. Off the bench, the Warriors will likely play Trayce Jackson-Davis and other forwards and centers who were on the team last year.
Back Ayton to grab at least 11 rebounds tonight.