NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/1)
We’ve got two Game 6 matchups in the NBA playoffs tonight. The Detroit Pistons will look to survive against the New York Knicks, while the Los Angeles Clippers will look to do the same against the Denver Nuggets.
Both teams will want to get off to hot starts. Who will score the first basket in both games? Find my picks below.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Jalen Duren and the Detroit Pistons have won the tip in three of the first five games of this series. Ultimately, Duren has only won the tip in 47% of games, but he’s at least helped the Pistons score the first basket in 50% of games this season.
On the other hand, the Knicks will have Karl-Anthony Towns, who hasn’t participated in the tip nearly as much this season. That said, the Knicks have scored the first basket in only 46% of games this season. Duren already has an edge over Towns, and the Pistons will be at home in a must-win game. They should start out strong.
The Knicks have allowed the first basket to small forwards 32% of the time this season. That would be Ausar Thompson, who has already had success with a first basket in this series.
Thompson scored four first baskets in 38 starts in the regular season and has added the team’s first basket in 13% of games. That’s not a great number, but not the worst number on the Pistons. Let’s ride with Thompson to get the party started.
Pick: Ausar Thompson (+1000)
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Nikola Jokic had way more success in the regular season than Ivica Zubac in terms of the opening tip. Zubac added the tip in only 28% of his 68 regular-season games and helped the Clippers score first just 38% of the time.
Meanwhile, Jokic won the tip 61% of the time this season and helped the Nuggets score first in 55% of their games. Yet, Zubac has won the tip to give the Clippers the first possession in three of the first five games of this series.
I’d like to think Jokic will even out the opening tip numbers and give the Nuggets the first possession to score.
Ultimately, the Clippers have allowed the first basket to centers the most this season at 25%. They’ve been good at limiting point guards, but every other position has added the first basket in more than 20% of games against the Clippers.
Jokic has added the team’s first field goal attempt in 39% of games and has scored the team’s first basket in 34% of games. He had a team-high 16 first baskets this season. Let’s see if he can land another one in the playoffs tonight.
Pick: Nikola Jokic (+550)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: