NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/13)
We’ve got a two-game NBA slate tonight, including a potential elimination game for the Eastern Conference’s No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. It remains to be seen if Donovan Mitchell will be healthy enough to play. Could the Pacers be the value play tonight?
I’ll review that game and the epic Thunder-Nuggets Game 5 matchup below and provide two NBA best bets for these games. Let’s get to it!
Tuesday’s Best NBA Playoffs Bets: Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best offenses in the NBA Playoffs. They’ve scored 120 points per 100 possessions and have added a 59% effective field goal percentage. However, don’t expect the Pacers to dominate offensively on the road against the Cavaliers. Cleveland has struggled to limit its defensive effective field goal percentage. However, the Cavaliers have still allowed just 24.3% offensive rebounds. Plus, the Cavaliers have held opponents to a 17.5 free-throw rate, which is about an average number.
If the Cavaliers have to play without Donovan Mitchell, the defense must step up to keep them from being eliminated. Plus, if Mitchell is out, the Cavaliers will lose a huge offensive weapon. Mitchell has been the only consistent offensive player for the Cavaliers in this series. He’s scored at least 33 points in every game before his injury in Game 4. Ultimately, Ty Jerome would likely take over. He’s been solid, but surely isn’t Mitchell.
Either way, I don’t think the Cavaliers will easily lose Game 5. They’ll keep it low-scoring and try to defend themselves in Game 6, where Mitchell could potentially be healthier and available.
Let’s back the Under 229.5.
Pick: Under 229.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Nuggets-Thunder series has been absolutely epic. The Nuggets punched first, but the Thunder punched back, and it’s already happened twice in this series. Ultimately, the Thunder have still performed the best on the defensive end in the playoffs. They’ve held teams to 103 points per 100 possessions, while allowing a 48.1% effective field goal percentage. In addition, the Thunder have gained 17.3% of turnovers per game, leading all teams in the playoffs.
The Thunder held the Nuggets to just 87 points in Game 4 and gave up only eight points in the entire first quarter. It matters how you start and finish a game. The Thunder defended super well in the first and fourth quarters in Game 4.
While the Nuggets haven’t performed well offensively in the playoffs, they should still see the foul line at a high rate. After all, the Thunder have allowed a 24.5 free-throw rate in the playoffs. Denver made only 25 baskets in Game 4, but added 26 foul shots on 36 attempts. That’s how it’s been all playoffs for the Thunder defense.
Meanwhile, the Thunder have added 117.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been able to limit turnovers to below 10%, which has really helped them get more shots up and earn more second chances. The Thunder have gained almost 30% of offensive rebounds and added 15 in Game 4. The Thunder haven’t shot the ball better than the Nuggets, but with fewer mistakes, they should grind out a win at home in Game 5.
Let’s back the Thunder at -10.5 (-115).
Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: