NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Monday (4/28)
There are only two NBA playoff games tonight, as the Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to advance past the Miami Heat, and the Golden State Warriors look to take a 3-1 lead over the Houston Rockets.
Will Tyler Herro shoot well enough to help his team avoid a sweep? Can Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet do enough in the late game to even the series at two?
Here are the three best NBA player props for Monday, April 28th.
Monday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
This Season: 58-72 (-10.30 units) | Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+160)
After scoring 33 points in Game 2, Tyler Herro managed just 13 points in Game 3. He went just 5-of-13 from the floor, as his Heat were blown out by 37 points. If the Heat are going to have any chance in this game, Herro will need to shoot much better than he did in Game 3.
In the first two games of this series, Herro went a combined 7-of-18 from deep. He made at least three three-pointers in both games, knocking down four in Game 2. Though Herro only made one three-pointer in Game 3, he was a 38.5% three-point shooter at home during the regular season. On the road, he shot just 36.4%.
With the season on the line, Herro will attempt more than just three three-pointers like he did in Game 3. After all, he had attempted at least six in each of his first two games.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 9.5 Points (+115)
During the regular season, Jabari Smith Jr. averaged 12.2 points per game, and he hasn't been far off that total throughout this series. He's averaging 9.3 points against the Warriors, but that is mostly because of one five-point game. In his other two games, he scored at least 11.
During the regular season, Smith scored at least 15 in three of his four games against the Warriors. He even dropped 21 against them earlier this season. When you include the postseason, Smith has scored at least 11 points in five of his seven games against Golden State, so getting this total at 9.5 for a price of +115 is a little shocking.
Maybe oddsmakers know something we don't, but back Smith to do what he's done in over 70% of his games against the Warriors.
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 Assists (+115)
Fred VanVleet has struggled to find his teammates in this series. Despite playing at least 40 minutes in all three games, he's managed just 12 assists, seven of which came in Game 1. VanVleet recorded three or fewer assists in Games 2 and 3, but there is serious value in taking him to record at least five tonight.
VanVleet finished the regular season averaging 5.6 assists per game. That ranked 28th in the NBA. He dished out at least five assists in three of his four regular-season games against the Warriors, so his recent struggles aren't the norm for him. What makes this prop even more enticing is that the price is greater than +100.
That's pretty shocking considering what VanVleet has done this season. Look for him to put two bad performances behind him, as he gets back to his season average tonight.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.