NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for Round 1 (Saturday)
In a “normal year,†the bracket you see revealed on Selection Sunday is the bracket we all make picks from and wager on. However, we had to wait until this morning to hear that the bracket was locked, as teams like Louisville were on stand-by ready to replace any team that suffered a COVID-19 outbreak.
Saturday’s action features eight games each from the East and West regions.
Here are our picks for Saturday’s first-round NCAA tournament action.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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#9 St. Bonaventure vs. #8 LSU (-1.5): 1:45 PM ET
The LSU Tigers have an explosive offense that averages 82.2 PPG (sixth in the country). They have an NBA player in Cam Thomas who has scored 20 or more points in 20 games this season. And they are coming from the more recognizable SEC, where fans have been able to watch a number of their games on TV. By contrast, St. Bonaventure is a largely unknown and under-the-radar team. They do not boast an NBA player, and their offense is not “sexy.†The fact that they are a big contrarian play in this game is why they are so appealing.
This game is the ultimate clash of styles. St. Bonaventure plays at a languid pace and wants to grind out games in the half-court. Their style of play is vastly different than LSU’s high-scoring up-tempo attack, which should make for a very entertaining game. Though LSU’s defense showed up in the SEC tournament, they have been inconsistent on that end of the floor all year. LSU allowed 80 or more points 14 times this year but allowed an average of 74.4 PPG in three SEC tournament games.
I will side with the more consistent Bonnies, that rank in the top 38 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and held opponents to 30.6% from the three-point line (32nd in the country).
#12 UC Santa Barbara vs. #5 Creighton (-7): 3:30 PM ET
UC Santa Barbara comes into this tournament a sizzling 18-1 SU in their last 19 games. They face a Creighton team that is 3-3 in their previous six games and is coming off a 25-point drubbing at the hands of Georgetown. Perhaps some of Creighton’s struggles down the stretch stem from a fractured locker room based on head coach Greg McDermott’s “plantation†comments. Either way, I am riding with the red-hot team that is built to give the Bluejays problems.
JaQuori McLaughlin is one of the best guards in the country that you never heard of. The floor general for the Gauchos averages 16.2 PPG and has a 2.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Gauchos also have the size in 6’9″ Amadou Sow (13.7 PPG) to compete with Bluejays big man Christian Bishop. The Gauchos have four players that shoot better than 36% from three-point range, so they are built to hang with Creighton if this game turns into a shootout.
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#15 Iona vs. #2 Alabama (-17): 4:00 PM ET
For as much love as Alabama’s offense gets since they shoot the three at a high clip, their defense is a highly underrated unit. The Crimson Tide ranks second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They led the SEC in both three-point percentage defense and effective field goal percentage defense. Alabama’s defense will be a big reason why this game stays under the projected total.
The Iona Gaels are no slouches on the defensive end as well. Iona is 18th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense, and their three-point percentage defense ranks 23rd in the country. The Gaels led the MAAC in three-point shooting, three-point defense, adjusted offensive efficiency, and offensive rebounding percentage.
Rick Pitino has won two national titles with a reputation for being a defensive-minded coach. He will find a way to neutralize Alabama’s up-tempo attack, and the first-round jitters will lead to a lower-scoring game than projected.
#10 Maryland vs. #7 Connecticut (-3): 7:10 PM ET
Another under we like is between two defensive-minded teams in Maryland and Connecticut. The Terrapins are an outstanding defensive team that allowed 23.1 field goals per game and held opponents to 41% shooting. They ranked third in the Big Ten in limiting opponents on the offensive glass and ranked fourth in the conference in effective field goal percentage defense. Similarly, Connecticut ranks in the top 25 in the country in both adjusted defensive efficiency. And just like most of Jim Calhoun’s old teams, they are an excellent shot-blocking team, with a 14.4% blocked-shot percentage that ranks tenth in the country.
Maryland’s offense is anemic at times. They rank outside the top-65 in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage. Also, they ranked last in the Big Ten with 68.8 PPG.
One of the biggest reasons this will be a low-scoring game is Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell’s ability to limit UConn’s James Bouknight. The Huskies struggled offensively in the eight games Bouknight missed with an injury. In those games, UConn was held to 70 points or less five teams. If Morsell is successful in frustrating Bouknight, it should once again be a frustrating day on the offensive end for the Huskies.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.