NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for the Elite 8 (Monday)
Only one of the four teams playing in tonight’s Elite 8 matchups has made it this far in the last nine years. Before Baylor’s Elite 8 appearance in 2012, you have to go back to 1995 to find the last time their opponent, the Arkansas Razorbacks, made it this far. In the other matchup, Oregon State and Houston are making their first Elite 8 appearances since 1982 and 1984, respectively. Thus, the excitement level is through the roof for all four fan bases, which have been starving for a deep tournament run for quite some time.
Which teams can keep their composure best and not let the nervous feelings of a potential Final Four berth affect them? In today’s column, we suggest that the totals for each game tonight, instead of the spread, provide the best value.
Here are our two best bets for Monday’s Elite 8 action.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
#12 Oregon State vs. #2 Houston (-8): 7:15 PM ET
If it seems that offense has been at a premium for much of the NCAA tournament, your analysis is correct. As Dave Tuley pointed out on Twitter, the unders (especially first half unders) have been a vastly profitable bet to this point.
Now we get a matchup of two of the best defensive teams in the country in Oregon State and Houston. Though the over/under of 130 was already set relatively low, it is not low enough. The Beavers have allowed 61.3 PPG in their first three NCAA tournament games and 65.8 PPG since the start of the PAC-12 tournament. Oregon State plays at one of the country’s slowest tempos and ranks 24th nationally in three-point percentage defense (30.4%). The Beavers average 19.0 seconds per offensive possession (ranked 11th in the PAC-12), so they are a methodical offense that likes to work for the best shot.
Houston ranks in the top-ten nationally in the following defensive categories: adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, three-point percentage, tw0-point percentage, and block percentage. Though they rank eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, they do not shoot the ball at a high enough percentage to put a ton of points up on Oregon State. Houston does not start a player taller than 6’8″, so it will be interesting to see if head coach Kelvin Sampson can create mismatches against the taller Beavers defenders.
However, Oregon State has held their last three opponents’ leading scorers (Jaden Springer, Cade Cunningham, Cameron Krutwig) to 16.7 PPG on a combined 17-for-44 (38.6%) shooting. Most impressively, the Beavers have not let any team’s secondary scorers get hot around them. Look for Oregon State to make Houston’s leading scorer, Quentin Grimes (18.0 PPG), work for everything he gets while throwing several defenders at him in the process.
The under is 2-1 in both of these teams’ three tournament games and is 4-0 when Houston has had just one day of rest in between games. With this being each school’s first Elite 8 appearance since the early 1980s, look for each team’s players to play tight to start, given the event’s magnitude.
#3 Arkansas vs. #1 Baylor (-7): 9:57 PM ET
While we like the under in the first Elite 8 matchup, we should be treated to a much more entertaining and free-flowing game in the second matchup. Under head coach Eric Musselman, Arkansas plays at the 17th-fastest tempo in the country. However, one of the more eye-popping statistics is that they average just 15.9 seconds on each defensive possession, the third-shortest in the country. Thus, that suggests that teams know how to attack their pressure early, leading to good looks. With Baylor a decent bet to score 80+ points, this total of 149.5 looks a bit low.
The Bears are coming off a dominant defensive performance against Villanova, holding the Wildcats to 21 second-half points. However, Villanova was a very limited offensive team ever since the injury to Collin Gillespie, whereas Arkansas has weapons up and down the roster. The Razorbacks have four players averaging in double figures, and they turned the ball over the second-fewest times in SEC play, which means they often make the most of their possessions.
Arkansas is susceptible to big runs, as evident by the double-digit deficits they have faced in each of their first three tournament games. Thus, Baylor’s offense should not go through an extended shooting slump as they did in the first half of their game against Villanova. In the last three games to end the regular season, Baylor averaged 87.6 PPG against three tournament teams (West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech). I expect the veteran Bears to play up to that level offensively against an Arkansas team that will not mind if this game turns into a track meet.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.