NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for the Elite 8 (Tuesday)
When the No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins beat the No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide on Sunday night, it set off another chain of interesting historical trends for this NCAA tournament. The Bruins’ win clinched that this will be the first Elite 8 since 2011 that did not have at least one No. 1 seed vs. No. 2 seed matchup. With USC’s subsequent win, it marks the first time that longtime rivals UCLA and USC are in the Elite 8 in the same year. The Bruins were just the fifth team ever to make the Sweet 16 after playing in the First Four. Can they follow the 2011 VCU Rams as the only one of those teams to advance to the Final Four?
This is also the first Elite 8 since 2014 with no representative from the ACC. Gonzaga is the third undefeated team to reach the Elite 8 in the last 40 years. And from a gambling perspective, Chris Fallica on Twitter added this interesting tidbit.
Here are our two best bets for Tuesday’s Elite 8 action.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
#6 USC vs. #1 Gonzaga (-9): 7:15 PM ET
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are nine-point favorites against the USC Trojans. If that number remains the same by tip-off, it will be just the fifth time all year they have been a single-digit favorite, and first since December 26th. In their previous four games as single-digit favorites, the Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS and have won those games by an average of 12.8 PPG. Gonzaga did not cover the lone game in those circumstances against West Virginia when Jalen Suggs missed most of the first half and played just 26 minutes after suffering a leg injury.
USC frustrated Drake, Kansas, and Oregon through the first three games of the tournament with their size and length. Their 2-3 zone has held the first three opponents to a combined 18-for-69 (26.1%) from three-point range. Whereas most defenses focus their attention on the Mobley brothers, it was USC’s backcourt that provided the scoring punch against Oregon. Tahj Eaddy and Isaiah White combined for 42 points, while the Mobley brothers combined for 23.
USC head coach Andy Enfield is 10-0 ATS all-time in NCAA tournament games, but if any team will ruin his unbeaten ATS streak, it is the undefeated Bulldogs. Gonzaga saw a steady diet of zone from the WCC teams that could not match up man-to-man with them. While none of them have the length as USC has with the 6’10†or taller Mobley brothers, Gonzaga moves the ball quickly and crisply and will find plenty of good looks in this game. In addition, the way they attack in transition will be something that the Trojans will not be accustomed to. While the Mobley brothers usually are adept at pounding the offensive glass, Enfield may ask them to curb their aggressiveness somewhat so that they are in a better position to get back defensively.
Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. While USC has covered their last three games, the betting public will overvalue their wins over three opponents who have apparent flaws. Gonzaga has no such flaws, and the talent disparity will be evident in this one.
#11 UCLA vs. #1 Michigan (-7.5): 9:57 PM ET
When Michigan lost Isaiah Livers to a leg injury four games ago, many questioned what the Wolverines’ ceiling was. Oddsmakers even suggested there was a good chance that Michigan would be upset along the way, as they were four-point favorites against LSU and two-point favorites against Florida State. However, Michigan turned in two consecutive dominant performances in those games, covering the spread by an average of 10.0 PPG. There is no disrespect to UCLA’s run to this point, but the Wolverines look like they are in the same midseason form that had many claiming they could win a national championship.
The Wolverines “small ball†lineup with Franz Wagner at the four is a nightmare to match up with but is also menacing defensively. Michigan has allowed 67.3 PPG in their three tournament games thus far and has held their NCAA tournament opponents to 12-for-53 (22.6%) combined from three-point range. With how reliant UCLA has been on the three-pointer to get to this point (made ten against Alabama), the Wolverines are built to negate their biggest strength. Lastly, UCLA does not have enough frontcourt depth to deal with Hunter Dickinson all game, and Cody Riley staying out of foul trouble is an absolute must.
As Jeff Borzello pointed out on Twitter, it took a historically lousy free-throw shooting night for UCLA to even be in this position. Thus, the much better team all season long will prevail.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.