NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for the First Four (2021 March Madness)
After hitting on over 50% of our picks in our daily college basketball picks column, we are back to provide insight on the NCAA tournament.
Like always, March Madness kicks off with the First Four games, with two matchups of 11 seeds and two matchups of 16 seeds playing their way into the 64-team field. However, unlike past years, these First Four games will all be played on the same day instead of a split over two separate days. Also, we will not see the familiar Dayton Flyers logo at midcourt as these games will be played on Indiana’s and Purdue’s campuses.
Here is a preview of all the First Four games, along with the best bet for each.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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#16 Texas Southern (-1) vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s: 5:10 PM ET
Texas Southern comes in red hot, having won 14 of their last 15 games. The Tigers love to push the pace, as they average the 24th most possessions per game in the country. This game is a fascinating clash of styles as Mount St. Mary’s played at the 356th slowest adjusted tempo in the country, per KenPom. Not many teams in the SWAC play the kind of defense that “the Mount†does, as the Mountaineers led the NEC in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.
This is a strength vs. strength matchup, as the Mountaineers allowed the lowest percentage of offensive rebounds in the NEC while Texas Southern was the SWAC’s best offensive rebounding team. Whichever team controls the glass will likely decide the winner.
Both teams have won NCAA tournament games (albeit play-in games) in the last four years. However, I will side with Mount St. Mary’s, whose suffocating man-to-man defense will pose problems for Michael Weathers and company. The Mountaineers are 6-4 ATS after a win, while Texas Southern is a poor 3-6-1 ATS when they have four or more days off.
#11 Drake vs. #11 Wichita State (-1): 6:27 PM ET
Neither of these teams likely felt too confident that they would hear their names called on Selection Sunday. However, these two mid-majors get a chance to battle it out for the right to play USC on Saturday.
This Wichita State team is not as glamorous as the Fred Van Vleet or Cleanthony Early teams. However, they still won eight straight games before losing to Cincinnati in the AAC semifinals, which included a win over Houston. Drake got off to an 18-0 start and covered their first 13 games of the season. Then leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill broke his foot, and Drake went 6-3 in the nine games he missed. While Hemphill may return for this game, he has not played since February 13th, which means he will have some rust to shake off.
In addition to Hemphill’s injury, Drake is indefinitely without starting point guard Roman Penn, the team’s third-leading scorer. With several injury concerns and without much roster continuity, that will be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome.
Wichita State ranked second in the AAC holding its opponents to just 28.9% from three-point range in league play. That stifling defense will come in handy against the sharp-shooting Bulldogs. While bettors are still enamored by Drake as they were one of the country’s best ATS teams in the regular season, this is not the same Drake team.
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#16 Appalachian State (-0.5) vs. #16 Norfolk State : 8:40 PM ET
Norfolk State has won eight of its last nine games and has a history of making noise in the NCAA tournament. As a No. 15 seed in 2012, the Spartans upset No. 2 seed Missouri. This year’s Norfolk State team is a better three-point shooting team than that “giant slayer,†as they led the MEAC with a 35.7% three-point shooting percentage in league play.
Appalachian State needed a miraculous run through the Sun Belt Conference tournament to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament bracket. While the Mountaineers are undoubtedly capable of building upon that magic, the fact that they shot just 31.7% from three-point range in league play and ranked dead-last in the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage defense is concerning.
Before the conference tournament, Appalachian State had lost six of its last seven games to end the regular season. That does not inspire confidence in picking them tonight, especially considering Norfolk State is 4-3 ATS as an underdog.
#11 UCLA vs. #11 Michigan State (-2): 9:57 PM ET
After both of these teams had lofty preseason aspirations, it is hard to imagine these two Blue Bloods meeting in an NCAA tournament First Four game. Michigan State has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. The Spartans proved they could beat anybody, as they knocked off two No. 1 seeds (Illinois and Michigan) this year. They also proved they could take their share of losses, as they had two separate losing streaks of at least three games.
UCLA has lost four straight games and is still trying to overcome the season-ending injury to their best player, Chris Smith, from earlier this season. While many bettors with side with Michigan State as they are the more household name with a coach who has had tons of success in March, the better value lies in the total.
Michigan State struggles to shoot the ball at a high level, as they rank 98th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, 266th in effective field goal percentage, and 255th in three-point percentage. While they exert their muscle over most teams on the glass, UCLA was the PAC-12’s best defensive rebounding team, allowing opponents to rebound just 23.7% of their misses.
The Bruins rank in the top 50 in the country in both adjusted offensive efficiency and three-point shooting percentage. However, the Spartans have held five of their last six opponents to fewer than 70 points. The nightcap of the First Four should be a close game, but it will also be a slugfest.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.