Navigate

NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for the National Championship (2023)

by |

The NCAA tournament is one of the most exciting events in all sports, as the one-game elimination setup makes it likelier to see upsets compared to a best-of-seven format. This year’s tournament had the second-ever No. 16 seed upsetting a No. 1 (FDU over Purdue), the third No. 15 seed making the Sweet 16 (Princeton), and was the first year ever where no No. 1 seeds made the Elite Eight and no top-three seeds made the Final Four. And while the UConn Huskies showed flashes of dominance this year, at one point being the No. 2 ranked team in the AP poll, the San Diego State Aztecs were considered an afterthought with 65-1 odds to win it all pre-tournament.

Though this is a national championship matchup of a No. 4 seed and a No. 5 seed, it still has a David vs. Goliath feel to it, as UConn is 4-0 in national championship games (all since 1999), while San Diego State is making its first national championship game appearance in school history.

Here are our best bets for the point spread, over/under, and our favorite prop for Monday’s national championship.

All odds via BettingPros consensus

#5 San Diego State vs. #4 UConn (+7.5, O/U 131.5): 9:20 PM ET

Point Spread

History is working against the Aztecs in this matchup. Per ESPN Stats & Info, this was the third time in the previous 70 years that three teams were making their Final Four debuts, but none of those teams cut down the nets. Meanwhile, UConn is 4-0 in national championships, and the Huskies are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this year. However, if you know our betting style, we never turn down a contrarian play, especially in high-exposure matchups like this. Given that UConn has already gone from -6 to -7.5 in less than 12 hours, it is safe to say most of the money will be on the Huskies come Monday.

Further influencing the general public’s thoughts on this game is that UConn never trailed in its dominant victory over Miami. At the same time, San Diego State had not led FAU from the 7:26 mark in the first half until Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beater with no time remaining (the first buzzer-beater in a National Semifinal when his team was trailing before the shot, per Sportsnet Stats). However, unlike other teams that have wilted when UConn has raced out to a big lead, San Diego State entered yesterday with the third-best record in Division I (7-2) when trailing at halftime, and has now won six consecutive games when trailing at the half. That speaks to the Aztecs’ composure and experience, as they are the 21st-most experienced team and ranked 40th in minutes continuity from a year ago (UConn ranks 113th and 248th in those categories, respectively).

Miami would have had a chance to make the game closer against UConn if not for shooting 8-of-23 at the rim. While much credit goes to the interior defense of Huskies centers Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, San Diego State’s offense is not built to attack the rim with as much regularity, as it is more than happy to shoot mid-range jumpers (top 15 mid-range shot rate, per ShotQuality). In addition, the Aztecs are 22-0 when allowing less than 65 points, which physical teams like Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall have done to the Huskies in conference play.

Pick: San Diego State +7.5

Over/Under

UConn may not have lost a game outside of the Big East this year, but San Diego State is built like a Big East team with its toughness and physicality, which the Huskies’ last two opponents (Miami and Gonzaga) did not have. The Aztecs are playing on Monday largely because of their 3-point defense, holding opponents to just 25-of-116 (21.6%) from beyond the arc. Their length and ability to defend the perimeter will be key against a Huskies team that has made 9+ 3-pointers in each of the first five tournament games. Before their game against Florida Atlantic, the Aztecs allowed 55.8 points per game in their last eight games, including a 57.3 points per game average (34% field goal percentage allowed, 17% 3-point percentage allowed) in the NCAA Tournament.

It also should not be overlooked how dominant UConn’s defense has been. In consecutive games, the Huskies held Gonzaga and Miami, the nation’s No. 1 and No. 6 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, to season-low point totals. Furthermore, Gonzaga’s 0.75 points per possession against UConn were its fewest in a game since 2009. Meanwhile, Miami did not make a basket in the final six minutes of Saturday’s Final Four game, and San Diego State can be held to similar offensive droughts, given that it plays at the country’s 270th-slowest tempo.

Pick: UNDER 131.5

Most Outstanding Player

The top two players on the Most Outstanding Player odds list are Huskies, highlighting UConn’s chances to win the game. And while we like San Diego State to cover the spread, we cannot ignore UConn as the rightful favorite to win outright, given that it is just the sixth team since 1985 to win its first five tournament games by double-digits (four of the previous five won the national title).

Huskies center Adama Sanogo is the first UConn men’s player with 100+ points and 40+ rebounds in a single NCAA Tournament. ESPN Stats & Info took to Twitter to expand upon more of Sanogo’s accomplishments.

Huskies shooting guard Jordan Hawkins heroically shrugged off an illness he had been battling to gut out 25 minutes and score 13 points. While that makes for an interesting storyline, and while Hawkins has scored 21+ points in four of five tournament games, Sanogo has been the face of the team all season and is worthy of being the favorite to win MOP.

Pick: Adama Sanogo (+130, odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.