NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for the Sweet 16 (Sunday)
The 2021 NCAA Tournament made history with the highest average seed ever to make the Sweet 16. While most of the double-digit seeds left, like Syracuse, Loyola Chicago, and Oregon State, play on Saturday, some “surprise†teams play on Sunday. UCLA tries to follow VCU’s path of 2011, making the Final Four after playing in one of the First Four games. Also, we get our first inter-conference matchup of the tournament as Oregon and USC out of the PAC-12 meet in the late game on Sunday night.
The other two Sweet 16 matchups have a “chalky†feel to them as two No. 1 seeds face a No. 4 and No. 5 seed. As such, both Gonzaga and Michigan are on upset alert and will have to play well to earn a spot in the Elite Eight.
Here are our two best bets for Sunday’s Sweet 16 action.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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#11 UCLA vs. #2 Alabama (-6.5): 5:15 PM ET
The Alabama Crimson Tide put on an offensive clinic against one of the country’s best defensive teams in their last game. Alabama scored 96 points against Maryland, hitting 16 three-pointers and shooting 53% from the field. Before that game, the Terrapins had held five of their previous seven opponents to 60 or fewer points. Because of that outburst, many will be quick to jump on the over. However, the defensive-minded Bruins have the personnel necessary to slow down the Crimson Tide. In addition, Alabama’s underrated defense is another reason we like the under.
UCLA is one of the most efficient half-court offenses left in the field. They have the 12th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and shoot better than 37% from three-point range on the season (ranked 28th in the country). However, head coach Mick Cronin is too smart to get in a track meet with Alabama and will do everything in his power to drag this game “in the mud.†The Bruins held Abilene Christian to their second-lowest point total of the season, and the round prior held a BYU offense that averaged more than 78 PPG on the season to just 62 points.
Alabama ranks in the top ten in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and three-point percentage defense. The Crimson Tide has enough length on the perimeter to frustrate the hot-shooting Johnny Juzang and run the Bruins off the three-point line. In seven games that Alabama has had four or more days off, the under is 6-1. With a whole week to prepare for UCLA, look for Nate Oats’s team to once again be locked in defensively.
#7 Oregon vs. #6 USC (-2.5): 9:45 PM ET
With most NCAA Tournament game predictions, we go based on metrics and data to guess how a game between two unfamiliar opponents will play out. In the case of Oregon vs. USC, these two teams played at USC on February 22nd, a game USC won 72-58. It seems only fitting that we will throw these results away and suggest that the Ducks will fare much better in the rematch.
One reason for liking Oregon’s chances is head coach Dana Altman’s tournament success. Since becoming the Oregon head coach, the Ducks are 14-6 in the NCAA Tournament and play in their fifth Sweet 16. One of the only reasons Oregon is a No. 7 seed is that they lost consecutive games in late January and early February after a two-week COVID-19 pause. They also dealt with injuries to Chris Duarte, and Will Richardson did not join the team until February 4th. Lastly, the Ducks lost the two games in which St. John’s transfer LJ Figueroa did not play. When Oregon is fully healthy, they are as dangerous as anyone.
USC overwhelmed its first two opponents (Drake and Kansas) with their mammoth frontline. When a team does not often see size like that, it can be difficult to prepare for and even more challenging to make adjustments on the fly. Oregon is well familiar with the Mobley brothers, though it was 6’2″ Tahj Eaddy who lit them up for 24 points in their first matchup. Look for Dana Altman to switch defenses constantly, keeping the Trojans off-balance and limiting their bigs’ touches.
The Ducks are the more rested team, having played one less game in the tournament due to their no-contest against VCU. Oregon is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and will continue that momentum with another cover (and possible outright win) against USC.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.