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NCAA Tournament Final Four Game Preview: Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars

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The Baylor Bears and Houston Cougars meet in an all-Texas Final Four matchup. For the second game in a row, Baylor will face an old rival as the two schools were both once members of the Southwest Conference. 

The two schools’ paths getting to this point could not be more different. For the most part, Baylor’s opponents kept in line with how the seeding should have gone. They faced a No. 16, No. 9, No. 5, and No. 3 seed, including the Big East regular-season champion Villanova Wildcats and an Arkansas Razorbacks team that finished second in the SEC. Meanwhile, Houston is the first team ever to play four double-digit seeds in a single tournament.

Houston is making their first Final Four appearance since the “Phi Slama Jama” days of Olajuwon and Drexler. Baylor is back to the Final Four for the first time since 1950. Which team can settle the nerves after these long-awaited absences and earn a chance to play for a national championship?

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Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open Baylor -4.5; O/U 135.5
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
  • Start Time: 5:14 PM ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: November 30th, 2002- Baylor def. Houston 62-60
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o134.5
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Overview

The Baylor Bears have won their four NCAA tournament games by an average of 14.3 PPG. They have covered three straight games and narrowly missed a fourth consecutive cover when they beat Hartford by 24 points as -25.5 point favorites. One of the most impressive things about Baylor’s run to this point is that they have three different leading scorers in their four games. However, two of those leading scorers were Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler, who have zero combined starts between them. And the leading scorer for the other two games was MaCio Teague, which means Baylor has dominated their opponents to this point without getting the best from their two AP All-Americans, Jered Butler, and Davion Mitchell.

Baylor has thrived on pressure defense and creating offense out of their defense. The Bears have forced 69 turnovers through the four tournament games, despite playing opponents like Wisconsin and Villanova, who are notorious for taking care of the basketball. Baylor’s defense has helped them overcome inconsistencies in three-point shooting, as they have gone 30-for-84 (35.7%) in the tournament.

The Houston Cougars are underdogs for just the second time this season. In their only other game as an underdog, they beat Texas Tech by 11 points as three-point underdogs back on November 29th. Coincidentally, that was also the only game Houston played against a ranked opponent this year, compared to 11 ranked teams Baylor has faced out of the rugged Big 12.

Houston has gotten to the Final Four by way of what has been their strength all year long: defense and rebounding. The Cougars are second in the country in PPG allowed (58.0 PPG) and eighth in rebounding percentage. Over the four games of the NCAA tournament, Houston is rebounding 42% of their misses, including 19 offensive rebounds against Oregon State, which proved to be the difference in their Elite 8 matchup. Fran Fraschilla on Twitter explained what Houston does in practice to make them such a good rebounding team.

Trends

  • Houston is 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog
  • Houston is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall as an underdog
  • Baylor is 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA tournament games
  • Baylor is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as a favorite
  • The under is 23-9 in Houston’s last 32 games as an underdog
  • The over is 13-3 in Baylor’s last 16 games

Bottom Line

Though Houston ranks in the top ten nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and most rebounding metrics, one has to consider the level of opponents they face that help pad those statistics. Taking nothing away from what Houston has accomplished this year, but the fact that they have played just one ranked opponent (which Baylor also beat twice by an average of 11.5 PPG) means they are in for a bit of shell-shock when facing the talented Bears. 

Though Houston has AAC Defensive Player of the Year DeJon Jarreau and another excellent perimeter defender in Quentin Grimes, Baylor has many players who can create their own shot. Much like the Bears did against Arkansas when Scott Drew repeatedly allowed Davion Mitchell to attack one-on-one, Baylor will identify mismatches and force Kelvin Sampon’s hand to change his defensive plan.

It cannot be understated how impressive Baylor has looked to this point without getting the best out of Jered Butler and Davion Mitchell for much of the tournament. Butler’s highest-scoring output through four tournament games is 16 points, which is a mark he had equaled or exceeded in eight of the nine games leading up to the tournament. Mitchell’s 13.5 PPG average is slightly under what he averaged in the regular season, but his 4-for-12 three-point shooting is the biggest surprise thus far. However, he has found other ways to contribute, like constantly locking down the opponents’ best player. His ability to limit Quentin Grimes’ scoring output will g a long way in determining the game’s outcome.

Baylor is battle-tested, old, experienced, and has a cupboard full of multi-dimensional guards. Isn’t that a recipe for winning in March?

Pick: Baylor -5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.