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NCAA Tournament Final Four Game Preview: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins

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In a year where NCAA tournament history was made with the lowest seed average entering the Sweet 16, you did not think we were going to have a Final Four with three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed, did you? The No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins crashed the national semifinal party and became just the second team ever to make the Final Four after playing in the First Four.

Gonzaga opened as 14-point favorites over UCLA, one of the largest point spreads in Final Four history. In 1972, UCLA was the biggest favorite in national semifinal history, covering as 17-point favorites over Louisville.

Something has to give in this matchup, as Gonzaga and UCLA are a combined 9-0 ATS in their nine NCAA tournament games. Will the Bulldogs cover yet another massive spread and earn a trip to their second-ever national championship game? Or will the Bruins make it 6-0 ATS in the tournament and perhaps pull yet another outright upset in what has been an improbable run to this point?

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Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open Gonzaga -14; O/U 145.5
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
  • Start Time: 8:34 PM ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: December 12th, 2015- UCLA def. No. 20 Gonzaga 71-66
+14
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o146
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Overview

With each game, the 2020-21 Gonzaga Bulldogs add to their resume of being labeled as one of the best college basketball teams of all time if they can cap the season with a national championship. With their 19-point win over USC in the Elite Eight, Gonzaga has now won an NCAA-record 27 consecutive games by double-digits. They have won their four tournament games by an average of 24 PPG and have trailed for a total of 10:09. Their historical dominance is not limited to this season, as they are the first team in Division I history to win at least 30 games in five straight seasons.

The Bulldogs lead Division I in PPG, field goal percentage, and points in the paint. They lead the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. USC had held its opponents to a Division I-best 41.5% two-point percentage entering their Elite Eight matchup. However, Gonzaga shot 26-for-45 (57.8%) from two-point range, and their 63.7% two-point shooting percentage for the season is also the best in the nation.

UCLA is the fourth team in NCAA tournament history that was a No. 6 seed or lower to beat a No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, and are the first to do it since the 1992 Michigan Wolverines. UCLA’s run to the Final Four is primarily a result of their defense. Michigan came into the Elite Eight averaging 81.3 PPG through their first three tournament games but scored just 49 against the Bruins. UCLA’s defense held up exceptionally well in the paint, holding Michigan to 17-for-40 (42.5%) from two-point range when they had entered the game shooting 59.2% on two-point shots in the tournament.

UCLA head coach Mick Cronin should be commended on the job he has done with the Bruins this year. UCLA lost the lone senior on their roster, Chris Smith, to a season-ending ACL injury back in late December. For that reason alone, many were quick to dismiss the Bruins as a legitimate threat in the PAC-12, let alone across the national landscape. As Dave Pasch pointed out on Twitter, UCLA’s misfortunes did not end there, which is an all-the-more reason why this Final Four run is historic.

Trends

  • UCLA is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog
  • UCLA is 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game
  • Gonzaga is 4-0 ATS in their last four games
  • Gonzaga is 9-2 ATS at neutral sites this season
  • The over is 9-4 in UCLA’s last 13 NCAA tournament games as an underdog
  • The over is 12-5 in Gonzaga’s last 17 neutral site games
  • The over is 39-18 in Gonzaga’s last 57 games overall

Bottom Line

It has been 403 days since Gonzaga last lost a game (2/22/20 at BYU). Therefore, the question surrounding this game is not if the Bulldogs will win, but by how much? While most Gonzaga analysis starts with their prolific offense, it was their swarming defense that was much of the reason they easily disposed of USC. The Bulldogs forced ten turnovers against the Trojans, many of which led to easy baskets in transition. They held USC to 4-for-15 (26.7%) from three-point range and 38.7% overall from the field. On the offensive end, the way they decimated a USC defense that was playing its best basketball of the season was something to behold. The Trojans had held three straight opponents to 38% shooting or less, and two of those opponents shot worse than 30%. However, Gonzaga carved up USC’s vaunted zone and shot 50% from the field.

Though UCLA has been solid defensively in the tournament thus far, this Gonzaga offense has proven it can beat the country’s best defenses. What should worry bettors backing the Bruins is how reliant UCLA has been on Johnny Juzang for offense. Juzang scored 28 of the team’s 51 points against Michigan, while the rest of the team went a combined 10-for-35 from the field. Juzang has now averaged 21.6 PPG in the tournament, but it will take a massive effort from UCLA’s supporting cast to hang with the high-powered ‘Zags.

Mark Few’s team knows that this season is a failure and that all their accomplishments to this point will be lost in history if they do not win a national championship. Thus, a laser-focused Gonzaga team faces a UCLA team that may be content simply earning a Final Four berth.
Gonzaga has won all but one of their games by double-digits this season. They just blasted a USC team that had beaten their three tournament opponents by an average of 21.3 PPG. That same Trojans team beat UCLA twice this year, once by 18 points. Is the 14-point spread in this game really enough?

Pick: Gonzaga -14

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