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NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets: Final Four (Saturday)

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Many are calling the Final Four matchup between Michigan and Arizona the most anticipated college basketball game of the decade. It will be interesting to see how different Illinois and UConn look from their neutral site battle at Madison Square Garden earlier this season. Instead of wondering which teams have the upper hand or who will cover the spread, below you will find our top NCAA Tournament player props and bets for Saturday’s Final Four action.

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Saturday's Best NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 2 UConn Huskies

Illinois’ offense is one heavily predicated on hunting mismatches and playing off those advantages in isolation. In the first matchup, that responsibility fell heavily on Kylan Boswell, whose 25 points matched the rest of the Fighting Illini starters combined. In this matchup, I expect head coach Brad Underwood to call David Mirkovic’s name early and often, especially if Alex Karaban is guarding him.

Mirkovic scored just eight points in the first matchup against UConn. But two big things stood out:

  • He went 0-for-4 from three-point range.
  • He attempted three free throws.

Since that clunker against the Huskies, Mirkovic has recorded 15 games with multiple threes, versus just six games where he did not make a single three-pointer. In addition, he is one of five Illini players with a 30.5% free throw rate or better. Mirkovic should have more than three attempts against a UConn defense that ranks in the bottom 20 in percentage of opponent points via free throws (24%).

In this same game, I am adding a game prop for Illinois to use its Division I-best adjusted offensive efficiency to go on a 10-0 run or better at some point.

Evan Miyakawa famously described it as a "kill shot" when a team goes on a 10-0 run in a game. 

Entering the NCAA Tournament, no team had more adjusted kill shots per game than Illinois (1.1). Its 0.84 adjusted kill shots margin (it conceded 0.27 such kill shots per game) was also third-best, behind Michigan and Arizona. 

By comparison, UConn conceded 0.30 adjusted kill shots per game and just allowed Duke to go on a 14-0 run in the Elite 8. That was the biggest run UConn had against it in four seasons.

Bets: David Mirkovic Over 12.5 points (-128) & Illinois to go on a 10-0 Run (+155)

No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats

(Odds courtesy of bet365)

I am shifting to bet365 for the best props in this battle of No. 1 seeds, as it has the most favorable numbers and prices for what I’m betting.

Since returning from a three-game injury absence, Koa Peat has dished out two or more in nine out of 10 games. Thus, his plus-money odds to finish with three or more assists are generous, especially when considering Peat has finished with at least three assists in five out of six games against top-10 KenPom opponents. 

Arizona uses Peat most effectively as a roller, where he is not only an elite finisher but also an outstanding passer. The Wildcats were also the nation's best team in terms of adjusted offense in the mid-range against top-10 opponents. That will come in handy against Michigan's first percentile rim rate allowed.

I am also making a likely contrarian play on Yaxel Lendeborg’s point total. Lendeborg has been on a historic run to this point, becoming just the second player in Bart Torvik's 20-year database to post an offensive rating of 130 or higher on 20%-plus usage, while making 120 two-pointers, 60 threes and averaging three or more assists per game.

Lendeborg has averaged 25 points per game over the last three games. He is the first player to combine for 50 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 since Stacey Augmon in 1990. 

So why am I down on Lendeborg now? He draws the primary defensive assignment from Ivan Kharchenkov, Arizona's most versatile defender.

Kharchenkov is no stranger to huge assignments, as he forced BYU's AJ Dybantsa into one of his least efficient games of the season in the first meeting.

And if Lendeborg is successful in driving on Kharchenkov, he will be met at the rim often by 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas, who has the team’s highest defensive Bayesian performance rating, per EvanMiya.

Krivas is also the last line of defense of a drop coverage that allows rim attempts in the fourth percentile, but with a 98th percentile efficiency rating.

Bets: Koa Peat Over 2.5 assists (+100) & Yaxel Lendeborg Under 16.5 points (-105)

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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