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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Game Preview: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

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The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles busted most brackets on the first day of the NCAA Tournament, becoming the ninth No. 15 seed ever to beat a No. 2 seed. After a second consecutive win over Florida, Oral Roberts tries to make history as the first No. 15 seed ever to reach the Elite Eight.

In what has already been a history-making tournament, will Oral Roberts add to the list of “firsts?” Or, will the talented Arkansas Razorbacks end Cinderella’s run?

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Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open Arkansas -11.5; O/U 159.5
  • Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
  • Start Time: 7:25 pm ET
  • Television: TBS
  • Last Meeting: December 20th, 2020- Arkansas def. Oral Roberts 87-76
+11
-110
o159.5
-108
+375
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-11
-110
u159.5 -112
-590

Overview

The star of the NCAA Tournament thus far has been Oral Roberts’ Max Abmas. Abmas entered the tournament as a largely unknown commodity, despite leading the nation in scoring at 24.5 PPG. He has scored 54 points through the team’s first two tournament games, and has been held to fewer than 20 points just once in the last 14 games. Oral Roberts is not still dancing solely based on Abmas’s play. Kevin Obanor, the 6’8” junior, has been a force inside. Obanor has averaged 29 PPG in the tournament thus far, as has provided the necessary second scoring option so that teams cannot devote their entire defensive attention on Abmas. 

The Golden Eagles are a threat any time a game is close as they are the nation’s leading free-throw shooting team (82.4%). They also rank in the top 15 in the country in turnover percentage and three-point shooting percentage, but impressively have won their first two games despite shooting a combined 21-for-65 (32.3%) from deep. A potential storyline to monitor if Oral Roberts wins a third-straight game is the fact that head coach Paul Mills worked on Baylor’s staff under Scott Drew for 14 years. If Baylor beats Villanova and Oral Roberts wins, Mills will meet his former mentor.

Arkansas has been impressive in their first two games thus far. They proved too much for Colgate and beat the Raiders at their own up-tempo and fast-paced game. Then the Razorbacks had to completely shift gears and win a tough and physical defensive slugfest against Texas Tech. The fact that Arkansas has proven they can win any style of game should give them great confidence going forward.

Arkansas has won 11 of their last 12 games, with the only slip-up coming against LSU in the SEC tournament. The Razorbacks defeated four tournament teams (Missouri, Florida, Alabama, LSU) in that span to end the regular season. Every game, they seem more comfortable in year two of head coach Eric Musselman’s system.

Trends

  • Oral Roberts is 6-0 ATS in their last six games
  • Oral Roberts is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games
  • Oral Roberts is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600
  • Arkansas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites
  • Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record
  • The over is 8-3 in Oral Roberts’ last 11 games
  • The under is 4-0 in Arkansas’ last four games, and is 4-0 in their last four NCAA Tournament games

Bottom Line

Whereas most teams that see Max Abmas for the first time are surprised by his speed and ability to create his own shot, Arkansas will benefit from seeing Abmas and company up close just last year. The Razorbacks trailed Oral Roberts by ten at halftime, but used a dominant 57-36 second half to win by 11 points. Arkansas limited Abmas to 11 points on just 4-for-11 shooting, while Kevin Obanor was the team’s leading scorer with 21 points. Thus, the backcourt tandem of JD Notae and Davonte Davis can once again be counted upon to frustrate the Golden Eagles star.

Oral Roberts backers should also be concerned with the minutes piling up for Abmas and Obanor. Neither player was taken out of the game in their overtime win against Ohio State or at any point in their win over Florida. With the breakneck pace at which Arkansas plays, the duo can very easily get worn down in the second half. 

There is a reason why only one No. 15 seed has ever gotten this far in NCAA Tournament history. Oral Roberts does not have the talent or athleticism necessary to battle Arkansas for a full 40 minutes. The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, so even this double-digit spread is not too much for them to cover.

Pick: Arkansas -11

Check out our other Sweet 16 game previews for Saturday’s matchups:

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.