New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Cam Newton vs. Deshaun Watson is a unique treat. These two quarterbacks who have helped to redefine the position have never squared off. And if Newton goes back to the NFC this offseason, it may be the one and only meeting. Houston has underachieved this season relative to expectations, while the Patriots, despite their losing records have overachieved based on expectations in place prior to the season. Both of these teams will set out in Week 11 in an effort to make the second half of their seasons something they can build off heading into 2021. It should be an exciting battle despite the combined 6-14 records.
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NE
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-2
-110
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o48.5
-110
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-130
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HOU
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+2
-110
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u48.5
-110
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+110
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View consensus picks from experts for the Patriots at Texans >>
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Overview
The New England Patriots are 4-5 on the season and are all but out of the Trevor Lawrence race. Cam Newton has flashed semblances of his old self under center for New England but a lackluster receiving corps and a depleted offensive line have done him no favors. Damien Harris and Jakobi Meyers have given some hope for the future, but you can be certain that Bill Belichick wants to win games now. New England will make a push to get back to respectability in Week 11 (aka a .500 record) but will need their once-vaunted defense to do their part against the electric Deshaun Watson.
Can you say train wreck? Bill O’Brien lit the Houston Texans future on fire and the results are playing out on the field. They are going to need some wizardry to build a contender when they still have Deshaun Watson, and it will start without a first and second round draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Texans are 2-7 on the season and have the Miami Dolphins brass cheering in excitement every time they lose a game they should have won. Houston was dealt a terrible hand in terms of strength of schedule to open the season, but they are still 2-4 since then, dropping a number of completely winnable games. They will try to turn things around in Week 11.
Trends
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests against teams with losing home records
- Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with losing records
- Over is 5-1 in the Patriots last six road contests
- Under is 4-1 in the Texans last five home contests
Prop Bets
Jakobi Meyers over 60.5 receiving yards (-111)
Meyers has been the lone bright spot for the New England Patriots at wide receiver. He has come on strong over the last few weeks. Since Week 7 he has been treated as a stud receiver, seeing a 38 percent target share topped only by none other than Davante Adams. He leads the league with a 61 percent air yard share over the same time period and his 37 targets places him seventh among all receivers.
He was a popular breakout candidate last season, but as an undrafted rookie, he was not given consistent opportunities until this season. Meyers has responded with 86.5 receiving yards per game since he became a starter. His outlier 169 receiving yard game against the New York Jets does skew his numbers, however, as he has hit 61 receiving yards just once in those four contests. The trends say under, but his usage and target hog status suggest an over play. This is one of the more debatable plays we have chosen to feature here but is still worth a one unit dalliance at BetMGM.
Bottom Line
This contest could truly go either way. The same could be said for the total. With no definitive lean to stand on, especially with New England playing on the road, this is essentially dealer’s choice. The experts in our consensus are heavy in favor of the Patriots taking this contest as they have looked like the better team for most of the season. I do not disagree with them and have also locked the Patriots in as one of my picks for the week. 71 percent have tapped New England, making the experts even more bullish on the Pats than the betting public, 64 percent of which have tapped the Patriots. This is a solid one unit play but keep it there due to the unpredictable nature of these two teams.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.