New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The New York Jets and New Orleans Saints are both trending toward an early winter. The injury-ravaged Saints have lost five straight games to fall to 5-7 and on the outside of the wide open NFC playoff race. Meanwhile, the New York Jets have just stunk on both sides of the ball, and continue to find ways to under-perform even the lowest expectations.
Which of these floundering teams has the edge in what might be the least interesting matchup of Week 14? Let’s do our best to break it down:
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Details
- Opening line: New Orleans -3
- Current line: New Orleans -5.5
- Total: 43
Can Alvin Kamara’s return jump start fledgling Saints?
The New Orleans Saints have endured some awful injury luck this season. Most notably, star running back Alvin Kamara has missed the last four games with a knee injury. But finally, there’s some good news for the Saints: Kamara practiced fully on Wednesday and appears likely to make his return at MetLife Stadium.
That’s an enormous boost for a New Orleans offense that’s been stuck in the mud since QB Jameis Winston was lost for the year due to injury. After Trevor Siemian failed miserably, coach Sean Payton has turned back to his pet project, Taysom Hill. His first start of the season was… not great, as he threw four interceptions in New Orleans’ 27-17 loss to Dallas.
With Kamara back, New Orleans’ rushing attack should get back on track. His value as a pass catcher can’t be underestimated either, considering New Orleans has no proven wide receivers.
What’s most interesting about New Orleans is despite their 5-7 record, the advanced metrics still believe in this team. New Orleans ranks 13th in overall DVOA. Why? Because they have an elite defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. The Saints are particularly stout up front, where they rank first in rush defense DVOA and second in defensive adjusted line yards. Star defensive end Cam Jordan might not play after landing on the COVID-19 list, but even without him New Orleans should dominate a Jets offensive line that ranks just 22nd in line yards and has allowed 33 sacks.
FootballOutsiders.com also says the Saints should have 7.3 expected wins on the season. While expected wins are exactly that, perhaps there’s some positive fortune coming for New Orleans now that it’s getting healthier.
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Jets defense is now the worst in the NFL
New York’s defense was bad on paper at the beginning of the season. They had no reputable cornerbacks and holes across the front seven. Then Carl Lawson went down with an Achilles’ injury in the preseason, and it seemed like this unit would be a full-fledged train wreck.
The Jets have delivered on every front in that regard. New York ranks dead last in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA. Here’s a glimmer of sunshine: they rank 30th in run defense DVOA!
But what’s even more concerning is New York’s defensive coaching staff. Head coach Robert Saleh earned the job for the work he did as San Francisco’s defense coordinator. He hired former Atlanta Falcons linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich to be his DC. And while it is never easy for a first-year coordinator, seeing comments like this after your defense gave up 418 yards to a Gardner Minshew-led Eagles offense is concerning:
Breaking news: Minshew and Hurts are indeed completely different quarterbacks. But I rest my case. This defense is awful on all fronts.
At this point, all Jets fans are looking for is improvement from rookie QB Zach Wilson. During the first half of Sunday’s loss to Philly, Jets fans got exactly that. Wilson led Gang Green on three touchdown drives to open the game before the offense reverted back into a pumpkin in the second half. Wilson is far from a polished prospect, but he’s getting better, and so is New York’s offense, which ranks 24th in DVOA.
Bottom Line
This line has only gone up since it opened, and the upward movement makes complete sense. While laying 5.5 points on the road with a team that’s lost five in a row is scary, that’s exactly what I’d recommend this week.
Kamara’s return comes at a great time, as he’ll face a hapless Jets defense that just surrendered 185 rushing yards to the Eagles. In a game the Saints can’t afford to lose, I’m expecting their best effort as they attempt to snap their losing skid. Even with all of their injuries, New Orleans is better on both sides of the ball and has an enormous coaching advantage.
There is some concern over Hill, who suffered a mallet finger injury he suffered on the middle finger of his throwing hand in last Thursday’s loss to Dallas. However, Payton indicated that Hill will start Sunday. Given Hill’s injury and New York’s struggles against the run, I’m expecting New Orleans’ gameplan to feature a ton of Hill and Kamara on the ground. I also have a hard time seeing the Jets putting up points against this strong Saints defense.
This certainly isn’t my favorite play of the week, but I’d lay the points with the road team at anything under -6.
The pick: Saints -5.5
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