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New York Giants at Detroit Lions Odds & Game Pick

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A battle between a couple of two-win teams is rarely something that will get one excited. Unfortunately, this contest is no different. Saquon Barkley keeps this game interesting, but we are likely looking at two teams that will be picking in the top 10 of  the 2020 NFL Draft. However, from a betting perspective, there appears to be some money to be made here. The opening point spread screamed value, but even a three-point jump still appears to offer some standalone appeal. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -3.5 on Detroit. The over/under total opened at 48.5 points. The point spread has seen some major movement and has jumped all the way to -6.5 on Detroit. The over/under total has seen a slight increase from 48.5 points to 49.
  • Current Line: Detroit -6.5
  • O/U: 49
  • Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 27th
  • Last Meeting: New York defeated Detroit 30-17 – August 17, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Giants at Lions >>

Overview

Just a few weeks ago we were lauding Dave Gettleman for eschewing popular opinion and reaching for the quarterback he wanted in Daniel Jones. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of the controversial sixth-overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft was immediately met with open arms by the fan base and by NFL media types after Jones’ upside solid first start. Unfortunately, one game tape was all opponents needed to realize that Jones struggles when pressured. Since the team’s impressive win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, the Giants have won just one of four contests, and that came against a team in even more disarray than New York. The Giants are just 2-5 on the season but appear to have at least four more contests that should be viewed as winnable. 

The Detroit Lions are 2-3-1 on the season but have shown some fight in all of their losses. Detroit has an emerging defense and a solid offense led by Matthew Stafford who recently became the quickest quarterback to reach 40,000 passing yards. However, they recently placed starting running back Kerryon Johnson on injured reserve and made the surprise move of trading starting safety Quandre Diggs to Seattle. The Lions should continue to be competitive this season but may have already started making vacation plans for January. The Lions appear to have a path to an eight-win season thanks to an easy remaining schedule. 

Trends 

  • The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams. 
  • New York is 1-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • New York is 2-5 ATS on the season. 
  • Detroit is 2-1 ATS at home this season. 
  • Detroit is 4-2 ATS on the season. 
  • New York is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records. 
  • New York is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. 
  • New York is 7-2 ATS in their last nine road contests against teams with losing home records. 
  • New York is 2-6 in their last eight contests. 
  • New York is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests following a straight up loss. 
  • New York is 0-4 ATS in their last four October contests. 
  • Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Detroit is 4-1 in their last five contests. 
  • Detroit is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 contests following a double digit home loss. 
  • Detroit is 6-2 ATS in their last eight home contests against teams with a losing road record. 
  • The over is 5-0 in New York’s last five road contests. 
  • The under is 4-1 in New York’s last five October contests. 
  • The over is 6-2 in New York’s last eight contests following a straight up loss. 
  • The under is 9-4 in New York’s last 13 contests against teams with losing records. 
  • The under is 5-0 in Detroit’s last five contests following a loss ATS. 
  • The under is 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight home contests. 
  • The under is 7-3 in Detroit’s last 10 contests against the NFC. 
  • The under is 9-4 in Detroit’s last 13 contests.

Prop Bets

Golden Tate over 50 receiving yards (-334)
There is also an over 75 receiving yards line available able at -113. After a quiet debut for the New York Giants, Golden Tate quickly built chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones and has averaged 91 receiving yards per game over his last two contests. The 75 receiving yards line looks attractive, but the win probability does not inspire confidence. Instead, attacking the over 50 receiving yards at -334 stands out as a value. Some sportsbooks have declined to even offer Golden Tate props for this weekend’s contest. Suffer the juice and build your bankroll. 

Detroit Lions -0.5/Under 56.5 (-110)
Detroit is our pick for the full game with the spread, so this teaser card offered by PointsBet has some serious appeal. Combining it with the under 56.5 appears to present the most value. The Lions and Giants have combined for 43.7 points per contest on the season. That number jumps to 45.3 with road/home splits but is still well under the 56.5 teased total. In terms of points allowed, the combined total for these two teams is 53.4 points. However, that number jumps to 60.4 points when road/home splits are taken into account. With only one of the combined totals suggesting the over to be the play, the under appears to be the smart action. Lock this one in as a two-unit play. 

Bottom Line

The New York Giants have been outscored by an average of 12.7 points at home this season, which gives us some room to work with as far as the full game spread is concerned. The opening line of -3.5 was much more attractive, but -6.5 still presents some semblance of value. While both the Lions and Giants have losing records this season, Detroit has been much more impressive. The Lions have scored 24.8 points on the season, while the Giants have scored just 18.9. Both teams have allowed 26.7 points per contest. New York has lost their last three contests and have only managed one win above expectation this season. Lock in the -6.5 before it moves to -7 as it already has at some other sportsbooks. 

Pick: Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.