New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Game Pick (2021)
No matter how good or bad the NFC East is, these divisional battles are usually pretty entertaining and closely contested.
The Week 5 battle between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys is pivotal for a number of reasons. The Cowboys will look to keep their momentum rolling and move to 2-0 in the division, while the Giants desperately need a division win after a thrilling comeback victory over the New Orleans Saints last weekend.
Will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys move to 5-0 against the spread in 2021? Or will Daniel Jones and the G-men roll into Dallas and keep things close. Let’s breakdown this NFC East showdown:
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Details
• Opening line: Dallas -5.5
• Current line: Dallas -7
• Total: 52.5
Giants will try again to be road warriors
The Giants are a strange bunch, and the last two weeks explain why. Two weeks ago, the Giants couldn’t get out of their own way in a confounding home loss to the lowly Atlanta Falcons. But last weekend, the Giants found the resolve to rally out of an 11-point fourth quarter deficit to stun the Saints in overtime on the road.
What the heck is this team? Through the first four games of the 2021 season, New York looks to be a high variance team that struggles mightily to convert opportunities and win close games. New York’s failure to execute in the red zone has been particularly crushing, as the Giants have scored just four touchdowns on 12 red zone trips.
Daniel Jones is a boom or bust candidate every week, and you just never know what you might get from him. Last week, it came together for Jones, as he threw for 402 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. But the stinker is always lurking with Jones.
Despite Jones’ erratic nature, the Giants might have something brewing offensively. Saquon Barkley looked close to his old self last week as he continues to recover from his ACL injury. With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out, the Giants unleashed rookie receiver KaDarius Toney. The Florida product performed well, catching six passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. New York’s offensive line has also performed above expectations, as the unit’s allowed just eight sacks so far.
Defensively, New York has left a little to be desired after an encouraging close to the 2020 campaign. The Giants defense has particularly struggled in the trenches. New York is allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt and has generated pressure on just 19.4% of their opponents’ dropbacks this season.
Dallas continues to prove its legitimacy
The Cowboys are a missed field goal away from being 4-0 with wins over Tampa Bay, the Los Angeles Chargers, and Carolina. Through the first quarter of the season, the Cowboys appear to be rather legit.
However, Dallas’ defensive deficiencies have been masked by some good fortune in the turnover department. Believe it or not, the Cowboys are allowing 6.4 yards per play, 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 4.7 yards per rush. They’ve also been generous in the red zone, where they’ve given up 10 touchdowns on 15 defensive trips.
What’s kept Dallas’ defense afloat is 10 takeaways, the second-most in the NFL. Of course, you need good players to create turnovers — and the Cowboys have a couple of budding young stars in Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons. But turnovers also require some luck, and that’s been a big part of Dallas’ success this season.
Offensively, Dallas has been a juggernaut, as expected. However, the Cowboys haven’t been a full-fledged aerial attack. Instead, they’ve been quite balanced. The Cowboys have 124 rush attempts compared to 133 pass attempts so far this season, which is much more of a split than anticipated coming in.
The Cowboys have been all-around efficient, as they rank 9th in the league in net yards per pass attempt and second in yards per rush. The offensive line has also done a great job protecting Prescott, who’s been sacked just seven times on the season.
Bottom Line
Taking the road underdog in a divisional game always feels like the right move, especially when that dog is getting a touchdown. But for my favorite bet of the game, I’m honing in specifically on the Cowboys.
The Cowboys should put up a ton of points with a dominant effort in the trenches. The Giants also will be without safety Jabrill Peppers and could be shorthanded on the defensive line if Leonard Williams is unable to go due to injury. Zeke and Pollard should have running lanes all day, and Dak should have all day to throw.
While the Giants could keep things close, Dallas’ long-awaited regression in the turnover department might not come against the mistake-prone Jones.
The picks: Dallas team total over 29.5 points, lean Giants +7 or better
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.