New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Game Pick
Two young quarterbacks, aided by strong defenses, face off in Jacksonville in a contest that, on paper, looks like it will be a low-scoring affair. Sam Darnold’s return from injury started off great but came to a grinding halt on Monday night against the Patriots, while Minshew Mania is still alive but has lost some of its luster.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Jaguars -4; O/U 41. After the Jets’ horrible performance on Monday Night Football, the line has moved to Jags -6.
- Current Line: Jaguars -6
- O/U: 41.5
- Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: September 30, 2018 – The Jaguars defeated the Jets 31-12 in Jacksonville.
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Overview
Just a week ago, the Jets’ organization was feeling good after their victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Sam Darnold was back, and there was still enough time to turn the season around. There weren’t many who believed the Jets would beat the Patriots on Monday Night Football, but most thought they would at least be competitive. Instead, the Jets were destroyed on their home field in a 33-0 loss, where Sam Darnold was heard saying he was “seeing ghosts.†Darnold had five turnovers in the loss, and now the question is being posed, Can Darnold turn it around for the Jets, or was the game against Dallas a fluke?
The Jets’ defense was unable to get off the field against New England, as the Patriots were able to possess the ball for 38:27. A lot of that had to do with the dismal play of the offense, but the defense also gave up three drives of 59 or more yards which resulted in touchdowns.
The good news for the Jets is that the Jacksonville Jaguars are not the New England Patriots. Gardner Minshew and the offense struggled against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals, and they actually trailed heading into the fourth quarter, before Minshew led a five-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to take the lead. For the second straight week, Minshew completed less than 50 percent of his passes. It was one thing to do so against a tough Saints’ defense, but to do so against the Bengals is a cause for concern.
The defense, on the other hand, was phenomenal on Sunday, causing four turnovers, including a huge pick-six which sealed the game. They allowed 291 total yards, 69 of which came on the last drive of the game, when the Jags were already up 27-10. Jacksonville held the Bengals to just 33 rushing yards but will be tested by Le’Veon Bell this week.
Trends
- The Jets are 2-4 ATS this season.
- The Jaguars are 4-3 ATS this season.
- The total has gone under in five of the Jets’ last seven games.
- The total has gone under in six of the Jaguars’ last seven home games.
- The total has gone over in six of the last eight games between the teams.
- The Jaguars are 4-1 SU in their last five home games against the Jets.
- The Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Jacksonville.
Prop Bet
First Half Spread Jets +3.5 (-110)
Getting this above the key number feels too good to be true, as the Jets are going to be much more competitive in this game than they were on Monday night. The Jaguars’ offense has gotten off to terribly slow starts this season, averaging just 9.3 points per first half. And that isn’t just because they’ve been playing great defenses. The Jags scored just nine points last week against the Bengals in the first half, and I could see something similar happening this week against a much better Jets’ defense.
Bottom Line
This is a huge overreaction to how bad the Jets looked on Monday night against the Patriots. The truth is, the Patriots’ defense has made a lot of offenses look silly this year, so how much weight can we really give to that game. The Jaguars didn’t look very good against the Bengals last week, and Garnder Minshew is starting to play a bit more like a rookie. No matter who the Jags are playing, they shouldn’t be giving this many points. The Jets will cover, and don’t be surprised if they sneak out a win.
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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 8
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Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.