NFL Anytime TD Scorers Picks: Steelers vs. Saints
We’re doubling down from our weekly NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorers picks column to make anytime touchdown scorer wagers in the International Series game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints. It will be a historic day for the NFL, marking the first-ever regular-season game played in France.
This game has a projected total of 44.5 points, placing it in the middle of the week’s slate, with five other contests projected for higher totals. Nevertheless, I’ve identified my top three anytime touchdown wagers, two of which come from the favored Steelers.
Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for Week 7’s International Series contest between the Steelers and Saints.
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Best NFL Anytime TD Scorers Picks: Steelers vs. Saints
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275)
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has the shortest anytime touchdown odds of any player in this game and is the only one whose anytime touchdown odds don’t return plus-money value. I think his 58.33% implied odds to score are too steep, and I see better value in Rico Dowdle against the Saints, who rank 30th in run defense and have allowed a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns.
While Warren played over 70% of the snaps and handled more than 60% of the backfield touches in Dowdle’s return, Dowdle doubled Warren’s red-zone touches. Facing a defense with a league-low 53.8% success rate against running backs and 12 total touchdowns allowed to the position, Dowdle is a great value play.
For those who want exposure to Warren, I’d suggest his +450 odds to be the game’s first touchdown scorer. New Orleans is one of two teams in the league that haven’t scored first in a game, and they average the third-fewest first-quarter points per drive.
Germie Bernard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240)
Germie Bernard’s +240 anytime touchdown odds are more appealing than DK Metcalf’s +175 odds, largely because Aaron Rodgers has been so successful targeting both.
Rodgers has a 95 total quarterback rating, an 82% completion rate and 6.7 yards per attempt when targeting Metcalf and Bernard. But when targeting all other players on the roster, his numbers drop to an eight total quarterback rating, 50% completion rate and 3.3 yards per attempt average.
Pittsburgh's receiving corps still lacks depth, with Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson and Cole Burgess on injured reserve (IR), plus Ben Skowronek is questionable. While Rodgers has averaged just 3.7 and 3.8 air yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks, I will back Bernard over Metcalf. Rodgers has a 115 passer rating since Week 5 when targeting Bernard. In addition, Bernard has a 75% catch rate, while the Saints allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
Devaughn Vele Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+295)
Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest red-zone trips in the league (10), and fewer than 40% of scoring plays against the Steelers’ defense have been touchdowns (the lowest rate in the league). With New Orleans potentially not driving the ball in close often, I’m taking a flier on one of the Saints’ deep threats.
Devaughn Vele ranks second on the Saints in receiving yards per game and yards per catch average. He is also one of four Saints pass-catchers with multiple receiving touchdowns.
Tyler Shough overcame a season-low completion rate to throw three touchdown passes last week, raising his floor, even though Joe Burrow is the only quarterback this season to throw multiple touchdowns against the Steelers.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.