NFL Best Bets: Week 12 (2021)
Ryan’s Season Totals
Assigned Games: 14-13-1
Best Bets: 20-11, Up 1058%
Sitting at about two winners for every three selections we put up, we’re feeling pretty good this year. So here is what our research finds this week.
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Best Bet #1: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
We haven’t picked a straight-up underdog win sometimes, but we believe this is as good a spot as any.
Let’s start with the high-level stuff: This is a game between 2 intra-divisional rivals, which tends to balance out performances and create situations ripe for upsets, especially when the underdog is at home.
Beyond this, and frankly, the biggest reason for this play has to do with one of our favorite psychological factors: the “I told you it was him, and not us†play. Beyond the “win one for the Gipper†(when someone close to or on the team dies), this is the second strongest psychological factor we have observed: how a team plays the week after a coach is fired. Think about it for a second, at a human level. Your team stinks, your coach gets fired, and you are still there. Don’t you want to prove that “it was the coach’s fault, not yours� Beyond this play’s typical level of magnitude, longtime readers know how we view Jason Garret (as one of the worst coaches in the last ten years of football), meaning there could even be some OBJECTIVE truth/additional weight to this play.
Couple this solid psychological play with a few tactical ones:
- The Giants get Ron Torbert as head ref for this game, who has called the 2nd least penalties on home teams this year (leading us to rank their Home Field Advantage as the second-best this week)
- Giants QB Daniel Jones does NOT like to get blitzed, coming in at 15th in EPA per pass when NOT blitzed, yet 25th when Blitzed, and with the Eagles only blitzing at 26th rate in the league, he should find his groove easily.
- Saquon Barkley came back last week but (likely) needed at least one game to get his footing, and as noted before, the Giants offense was .12 EPA play BETTER when Barkley is on the field.
Anything can happen on Sundays, but if you have an appetite for underdogs, this looks as good as any opportunity.
Bet: New York Giants ML (+140)
Best Bet #2: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns.
The reasoning with this play stems mainly from matchup advantages. Specifically, from the Raven’s QB, Lamar Jackson, that our model points out.
For one, not surprisingly, given Lamar’s affinity for the middle of the field, he has a strong stat split vs. MFO (2 deep safety, or Middle Field Open) defenses instead of MFC (Middle Field Closed, or 1 Safety). Sitting at the 4th best QB in EPA/play vs. MFO defenses, almost 15% better when he sees 2-deep, he’ll enjoy the fact that the Browns use the 5th most MFO defenses in the NFL.
Secondly, Lamar Jackson has one of the starkest QB performance splits in the NFL when vs. the blitz/NO blitz. Currently, he is the #1 rated QB when not blitzed, yet #28 when blitzed. Fortunately for Jackson and the Ravens, the Brown blitz about 20% of the time, or 4th least frequent in the NFL. Combine these elements, and Jackson is expected to have his “MVP-type environment†he enjoyed in years past.
Beyond this QB tactical advantage, these reasons support the pick:
- The Ravens come in simply as the better team (by DVOA, PFF ranking, and SIS EPA/play)
- The Ravens are playing at home (with a top 5 referee advantage with Jerome Boger heading their crew)
- The Ravens have a 7 to 15 advantage in Coach Ranking according to EDJ Sports
Bet: Baltimore Ravens -4
Best Bet #3: Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
The similarities between these squads extend beyond both, boasting a top 5 consistency rank. Besides the obvious: use of wide zone runs, pre-snap motion, and play-action matched to the run game, both teams are known for the heavier personnel on offense, both using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE) 45% of the time (5th least in the NFL). Also, both teams are early-down run first, and the two rank 1st and 2nd in the league in under-center snaps (vs. shotgun). Both coaches also own some interesting betting trends: Vikings’ HC Mike Zimmer owns the 2nd best ATS since he took over as HC at 59% (in season). In comparison, 49ers HC Kyle Shannahan has won 73% of their games with Jimmy Garapolo and Shannahan.
Now that we know how similar these teams are, how do they match up against each other? Based on PFF rankings, the first item that jumps out is the 49ers’ strong net pass rush advantage (on both sides). This may be offset by how often the 49ers send the blitz (8th most in the league) and the fact Cousins performs better when faced with a blitz (17th in EPA when NOT blitzed, yet 8th when blitzed by SIS Data Hub). Lastly, from a tactical standpoint, Cousins has performed far better vs. MFC defenses (about 7% points better by SIS Data), and the 49ers use the 8th most MFC/Single-High defenses in the league.
Given the marginal tactical advantages in the Vikings’ favor and the feeling they are just hitting their stride, we will side with Minnesota in this game.
Bet: Minnesota + 3
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