NFL Best Bets: Week 7 (2021)

Below are my NFL Football Best Bets for Week 7. It’s been a successful year thus far.

Ryan’s Season Totals

Best Bets: 13-4, Up 1058%

Of course, after mentioning the fact that we had not had a single losing week, we went 1-2 in Week 6. In fairness, we should have noticed the insane cash slip split in the Charges/Ravens U/O (I believe it was like 94% of the cash was going on the under here). Still, we will take it as a learning experience and move forward, bringing you profitable EV opportunities. 

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Best Bet #1: Miami to win outright vs. Atlanta (+113)

Matt Ryan and the Falcons hoped that new OC Arthur Smith would come in and offer some tactical advantages, such as bringing Ryan’s Play-Action (PA) rate back up and ideally using more 12-personnel.  As you can see from Sharp Football Stats, Ryan and the Falcons have been very successful in 12 personnel the last two years. Both variables have been addressed, as the Falcons have gone from a 26% PA Rate to a 29% PA Rate and bumped up their usage of 12 from 15% to 37%. Additionally, Ryan should have the benefit of returning WRs Calvin Ridley and Russel Gage. However, the issue may lay with how poorly Ryan has handled pressure this season and the Dolphins’ proclivity to bring more than four rushers. Based on PFF, Ryan grades out this season as an 84 when not blitzed (91 when kept clean in general!), yet a 71 when blitzed. All QBs fare worse under pressure, but unlike some in the NFL (Mahomes and Brady, for example), it’s clear that you can disrupt Ryan with the Blitz. Miami currently blitzes the QB at the 25th highest rate.

On the flip side, Miami comes in fresh off a “meh win” vs. the hapless Jaguars that they almost gave away. The story of the offseason for this squad from a tactical standpoint was would the new OC(s) help scheme open WRs, as the team has been hopeless in this effect the past couple seasons, typically finishing in the bottom of Next Gen Stats “Average Separation by WRs.” Regardless of the so-so offensive start to the season, the good news is it seems the offense has figured out a way to get WRs open, as they have gone from an expected competition percentage of 65.5% to 67.2.

There are a couple of additional factors that could come into play in this game. For starters, there likely will be foul weather, which could compound Matt Ryan’s already suspect Home vs. Away splits. Additionally, although the Dolphins are not sure if they will get their two best CBs back in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, it may not matter vs. the Falcons. Matt Ryan and co. have the lowest ADOT in the league BY FAR, meaning much of the heavy lifting in pass coverage may not be in the hands of the DBs anyway. And lastly, and this may be the key for our decision, The Falcons Pass Protection ratings are skewed by a heavy “Outside Performance.” Meaning they protect better with their LT and RT. And given the Dolphins are considerably better at getting interior pressure based on SIS Points Saved metric, this will likely lead to a HEAVIER than expected pressure rate for Matt Ryan.

All of this is not to mention most of the “negative vibes” for Miami have to do with two losses vs. VERY good teams without their starting QB. Miami may very well be a solid team.

Best Bet #2: Daniel Jones OVER .5 Interceptions

Season-long readers will note that we have had a ton of success milking this type of prop, using our QB “turnover likelihood model.” However, there is an extra bit of “going back to the well-ness” in this play, as we cashed in on the same bet a couple of weeks ago. The only difference here is we are still waiting to hear the exact line, which may impact its EV, but as long as you can get this in the + to -120 range, go for it.

Daniel Jones continues to be one of the luckiest QBs in the league when it comes to picks. Take a look at an updated QB Archetype thanks to NFL Next Gen Stats:

Metric	Rank
Time to Throw Rank	18th longest TTT
ADOT Rank	14th farthest
Aggressiveness Rank	2nd most aggressive
Expected Completion Rank	28th lowest
+/- Completion Rank	20th most accurate

 

You can read this as a QB that holds on to the ball about average, throws it deep about average, but throws “interceptable” balls at the second-highest rate, yet doesn’t have the OC scheming ability or accuracy to back it up. He has been flirting with a 2-3 Interception game for some time. We believe there may even be value here at 1.5 interceptions. According to the PFF, this is especially true given his opponent, Carolina, boasts the third-best pass coverage unit.

Best Bet #3: Justin Fields UNDER 213.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Admittedly this is a challenging play for me (as a lifelong resident/fan of Chicago). Yet, I am only motivated by profit in these articles, so we must include this prop. Justin Fields and Bears OC Bill Lazor have put together a couple of solid game plans to keep the Bears in the game. Yet, they haven’t figured out how to lessen the pressure Fields has faced, especially when a defense blitzes. Fields is currently averaging 4.0 yards per dropback when a defense blitzes, the second-worst in the league. This is not to mention the league’s worst 1 of 5 blitzed passes. He takes a sack.

Beyond Tampa Bay’s overall strength on defense, they blitz opponents at the highest rate in the league and will undoubtedly dial up the same strategy vs. Fields.

It’s important to note, issues vs. the blitz aren’t just “variance-based” or “one-off” problems for Fields, as it’s well-documented that his worst games/throws in his college career happened when opponents sent five or more.

With that said, I can’t see Fields going over 200, let alone 213.

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Ryan Newman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.