NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 10 (2021)

It was no secret that NFL betting underdogs had been performing well this season. However, last week saw complete and total chaos take place around the league. In total, dogs wound up covering ten of the 14 total games. Underdogs playing on the road were particularly successful, covering eight out of ten such scenarios. Through nine weeks, NFL betting favorites are now only 56-77-1 ATS, and favorites playing at home are an even worse 31-51-1 ATS. Those equate to cover rates of 42% and 38%, respectively. Many people emerged from last week’s insanity, wondering if they honestly know anything about the NFL. Perhaps analyzing the betting line moves for the Week 10 slate can help improve your handicapping prowess moving forward.

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 10 slate is included at the end of this column. 

Bet online at Parx Sportsbook with special offers >>

Significant NFL Week 10 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Browns at Patriots (NE from -3 to -1.5)

Sunday afternoon’s AFC battle between the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots is arguably the most critical NFL betting matchup on the Week 10 card. Both teams enter the game with a 5-4 record (SU and ATS) and are on the heels of impressive showings one week ago. The Patriots have won three consecutive games and four of five overall. Each side needs this game badly to keep pace in their respective division races and for potential standings tiebreaker purposes down the road.

After oddsmakers opened New England as a three-point home favorite, the market has bet the spread down off of the key number. The Patriots are now laying only 1.5. While home favorites have struggled on the season (see intro section above), there’s a case to be made that this line is a bit low following the move. The move almost feels like an overreaction to the Browns dismantling an overhyped Cincinnati Bengals team last week. Bill Belichick’s Patriots rank top-10 in both scoring offense and defense. It’s hard to envision Baker Mayfield solving the savvy Patriots defense. This line could very well move back in the other direction before Sunday.

Buccaneers at Washington (TB from -7.5 to -9.5)

This NFC clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Football Team is a rematch from the Wild Card Playoffs last year. Of note is that both teams are coming off of a Week 9 bye and disappointing Week 8 losses. While Washington has played better defensively in recent games, the unit remains one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season. The particular weakness lies in the secondary, a matchup that Tom Brady should have no trouble exploiting on Sunday.

Seahawks at Packers (GB from -5 to -3)

The point spread for Sunday’s showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers could prove to be one of the more interesting lines to track leading up to kickoff. Both teams stand to get their superstar quarterbacks back. Russell Wilson has been cleared to return after time off with a finger injury while Aaron Rodgers is on track to play following last week’s absence for what I will refer to as “reasons.” 

It is interesting to see the NFL betting market drive this line down a full two points in support of Seattle. The importance of this game cannot be overstated for Pete Carroll’s team. At 3-5 coming in, a loss would deal a massive blow to the Seahawks’ playoff hopes. Green Bay does not have that concern as they lead the NFC North Divison by a wide margin. Based on the spot, it makes sense to believe that the Seahawks will rally around Wilson and play a high level of football on Sunday.

Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>

Significant NFL Week 10 Line Moves | Totals

Falcons at Cowboys (50.5 up to 54.5)

The week’s largest NFL betting line move to date features the total in Sunday’s matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys. An opening line of 50.5 has steamed up four whole points to settle on 54.5. Just when we thought we could trust the Cowboys’ defense, they went and got blasted by the Denver Broncos last week. While Matt Ryan has played well in most of Atlanta’s games recently, keep in mind that he still has limited weapons with top Calvin Ridley stepping away. This is also a revenge game for Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Not sure that the Falcons will get many stops of their own, but this line move may have gotten a tad carried away.

Vikings at Chargers (50.5 up to 53)

Another total that has moved up this week is an intriguing cross-conference matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers. After squandering another double-digit lead last week, the Vikings come into this game with their backs against the wall. It feels like Mike Zimmer is coaching for his job every week. The Chargers got back to winning last week, albeit in narrow fashion against the Philadelphia Eagles.

When it comes to X’s and O’s, this line move makes a lot of sense. The Vikings are particularly vulnerable in the defensive secondary. So this sets up as a nice matchup for Justin Herbert and playmaking receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. In addition, Dalvin Cook could be primed for a monster game against a Chargers run defense that ranks dead last in adjusted efficiency on the other side of the ball. Minnesota also seems to have a knack for playing in shootouts on the road. This season, the Vikings are averaging 30.5 points per game in road games compared to just 18 when playing at home.

Chiefs at Raiders (53.5 down to 51.5)

This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup should be a great one as a pair of AFC West Division rivals with identical records get set to square off. The big question is whether or not Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes can somehow get the once scary Kansas City Chiefs offense turned around. Although a matchup against a depleted Las Vegas Raiders defense seems like an ideal spot to do so, the same was said two weeks ago against a below-average New York Giants unit. Not only did the Chiefs only score 20 points in that game, but they were held to 13 and failed to cover against the Jordan Love-led Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Big yikes there. 

This line shift towards the under certainly feels weird based on the reputation preceding the Chiefs and Raiders. However, it makes a lot of sense based on the data from this season specifically.

Week 10 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 10 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 5 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, November 10th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Ravens Dolphins	-6.5 48	-7.5 46.5
Jaguars Colts	48 -10	47.5 -10.5
Browns Patriots	44.5 -3	45.5 -1.5
Falcons Cowboys	50.5 -9.5	54.5 -9.5
Bills Jets	-13.5 48.5	-12.5 47.5
Saints Titans	44.5 -2.5	44.5 -3
Buccaneers Washington	-7.5 51	-9.5 51.5
Lions Steelers	44 -10	42.5 -9
Vikings Chargers	50.5 -3	53 -3
Panthers Cardinals	45.5 -10.5	44 -10.5
Seahawks Packers	49.5 -5	49.5 -3
Eagles Broncos	44.5 -1.5	45 -3
Chiefs Raiders	-3 53.5	-2.5 51.5
Rams 49ers	-3 47	-4 49

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Use Public Betting Information to Your Advantage â€” to learn more.

Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.