NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 14 (2021)

In an NFL season that upsets and parity have defined, last week saw most results chalk in terms of outright winners. Of course, the Detroit Lions were one of the underdogs to pull off an upset. All 32 NFL teams have now won at least one game with that result. The Lions’ win over the Minnesota Vikings not only stunned many NFL betting analysts, but it also completed the brilliant concoction that is the “NFL Circle of Parity” for the 2021-22 season.

With injuries continuing to pile up and market perceptions of various teams continuing to change, there have been several noteworthy NFL betting line moves once again this week. The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 14 slate is included at the end of this column. 

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Significant NFL Week 14 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Ravens at Browns (BAL from -1 to +2.5)

Two weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens may have escaped their first meeting against the Cleveland Browns with a fortunate victory. Unfortunately, it has been a rough stretch of days in Charm City since. Not only did the Ravens lose as NFL betting favorites to the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday, but they also got hit by yet another devastating injury. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is the latest stalwart from the defensive secondary to be ruled out for the season. That blow is undoubtedly a factor in the Ravens flipping from a one-point favorite to nearly a full field goal underdog this week.

Meanwhile, the Browns are technically set to play a second consecutive game against the Ravens after being on bye last week. After letting one slip away two weeks ago, one might imagine that Cleveland will show up in a big way this Sunday. Despite the recent drama surrounding Baker Mayfield, he and his teammates have been all business and positive leading up to this rematch. Further power rating adjustments that might be affecting this line move concern a Ravens’ offense that has failed to score 20 points in four straight games coming in.

Giants at Chargers (LAC from -7.5 to -10)

Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers surprised many by knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals in a key AFC battle. What is not a surprise is the NFL betting market raising its power rating on the Bolts in the aftermath. After opening as a 7.5-point favorite for Sunday’s home game against the New York Giants, the Chargers have been bet up to -10. While L.A. tends to be a team that only plays in close games regardless of the opponent, there certainly is not much to like about the Giants team they’ll face Sunday. 

Whether it is Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm who ultimately gets the start, New York’s offense is broken right now. Switching offensive coordinators from Jason Garrett to Freddie Kitchens has done nothing to change that. The fact that the team’s top receivers continue to be in and out of the lineup doesn’t help either. That being said, the Giants’ defense has been playing very well and could have something to say about whether the Chargers ultimately cover the 10-point spread.

49ers at Bengals (CIN from -2.5 to +1.5)

Despite both the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals losing outright as NFL betting favorites last week, heavy action has come in on the road team ahead of Sunday’s showdown. The market is more confident in the 49ers’ ability to rebound. A spread that opened with San Fran as 2.5-point underdogs now favors the Niners by 1.5. While Joe Burrow and the bevy of Bengals’ offensive weapons figure to have an advantage over San Francisco’s secondary, whether or not he has time to throw. Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ defensive front will have a massive edge over the Cincinnati offensive line. Sharp power ratings have been high on the 49ers since before the season began. That appears to remain the case heading into Week 14.

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Significant NFL Week 14 Line Moves | Totals

Raiders at Chiefs (52.5 down to 48)

Given the new brand of football that the Kansas City Chiefs have been playing of late, it comes as no surprise to see the total for Sunday’s AFC West battle against the Las Vegas Raiders take a nosedive. While the move does contradict the 55 total points scored in the first meeting between the teams four weeks ago, that game was an outlier on several levels. Most notably, the Chiefs won in blowout fashion, something they have not done much this season. The 41 points scored marked Kansas City’s second-highest total of the year. 

While Patrick Mahomes and the offense continue to struggle relative to expectations, the Chiefs’ defense has been lights-out after an awful start to the season. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has held six of the last seven opponents to 17 points or less. The defensive turnaround has been the catalyst to the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak. When it comes to this NFL betting line move to the under, it is also worth noting that the Raiders’ defense also played exceptionally well in holding Washington to 17 points and under 300 yards of offense last week.

Bears at Packers (45.5 down to 43.5)

One can’t help but wonder if the NFL betting line move to the under for this NFC North Division clash is directly correlated to the Chicago Bears announcing that Justin Fields will be back under center this week. While it doesn’t much matter from the standpoint of winning in a lost season, veteran Andy Dalton is probably worth an extra point or two to a betting total compared to Fields. 

Furthermore, the Green Bay Packers have proven to be perfectly happy playing in low-scoring games this season. With the defense being much improved from seasons prior, the Packers also lean more heavily on the run game this year. Of course, this effectively helps to shorten games. The two teams combined for only 38 points in their first meeting this season, a 24-14 Green Bay win.

Week 14 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for the Week 14 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 4 p.m. EDT on Friday, December 10th. 

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Raiders Chiefs	52.5 -10	48 -9.5
Saints Jets	-6.5 43.5	-5.5 43
Jaguars Titans	46 -9.5	43.5 -9
Ravens Browns	-1 45	43 -2.5
Falcons Panthers	45.5 -2.5	42 -2.5
Cowboys Washington	-5 49	-4.5 48
Seahawks Texans	-6.5 44.5	-8.5 41.5
Lions Broncos	43.5 -8.5	42 -10
Giants Chargers	46.5 -7.5	43.5 -10
49ers Bengals	47 -2.5	-1.5 48.5
Bills Buccaneers	53 -3.5	53.5 -3.5
Bears Packers	45.5 -11	43.5 -12.5
Rams Cardinals	52.5 -2.5	51.5 -2.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.