NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 16 (2021)

We had yet another double-digit favorite suffer a stunning upset loss last weekend. From the start of the year to now, league-wide parity has been the common theme for this wild and wacky NFL betting season. Of course, injuries and virus protocols are now wreaking extreme havoc on player availability and the betting lines. Bettors will find a little bit of everything on the Week 16 board. A whopping four teams are favored by 10 points or more while two games are also listed at pick’em at the time of writing. If this season has taught us anything, the question is not whether or not there will be surprise results in Week 16. Rather, it is where will those surprises come from?

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 16 slate is included at the end of this column.

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Significant NFL Week 16 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Colts at Cardinals (ARZ from -5 to -1)

The nightcap to a fun Christmas Day NFL betting doubleheader features two teams with their sights set on the postseason. That being said, the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals have been trending in very different directions recently. While the Colts have won seven of nine and are coming off a very impressive performance against the New England Patriots, the Cardinals just got embarrassed by the Detroit Lions last week. An 18-point loss as double-digit road favorites marked Arizona’s third defeat in the last five games.

The Colts have ridden Jonathan Taylor up to this point and there is no reason to assume that will change on Saturday. Considering that the Cardinals’ run defense is vulnerable, the matchup sets up very well for Indianapolis. On the other side of the ball, the Colts come in with a top-three adjusted defense against the run. Once again, they figure to have the advantage over an Arizona offense that is predicated on establishing the ground game. Add in Kyler Murray’s struggles and the loss of top wideout DeAndre Hopkins and it’s no surprise that the NFL betting market has hammered the Colts as road dogs.

Steelers at Chiefs (KC from -9.5 to -7.5)

This isn’t exactly the most fun line move to discuss as it is firmly based on an outbreak of positive virus tests. The Kansas City Chiefs could very well be a shell of themselves on Sunday afternoon when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. On offense, Patrick Mahomes might be without his two most dangerous weapons in wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ offensive line could also be depleted as tackle Lucas Niang and guard Kyle Long are both in virus protocols. 

The defense has been unable to escape unscathed either. The most notable players in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game include lineman Chris Jones, linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr., and corner Charvarius Ward. Even kicker Harrison Butker is currently in virus protocols. Bettors should not confuse this line move with being a play on the Steelers despite last week’s win. It is firmly about the potentially depleted Kansas City team they will face.

Washington at Cowboys (DAL from -9.5 to -10.5)

The Dallas Cowboys took it to the Washington Football Team on the road two weeks ago. While that matchup was billed as a pivotal game in the NFC East Division race, the NFL betting market is trending towards an easy win for Dallas in Sunday night’s rematch. Although the line has only moved one point, the jump through the key number of 10 makes this a noteworthy adjustment. While the division crown is all but theirs, this game still carries meaning for the Cowboys when it comes to the race for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC Playoffs. After being decimated by virus protocols last week, Washington could very well be shorthanded again on Sunday night. 

Significant NFL Week 16 Line Moves | Totals

Buccaneers at Panthers (48.5 down to 44)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got hit hard by the injury bug in last week’s stunning shutout loss to the New Orleans Saints. Fortunately, Tom Brady will get Antonio Brown back for Sunday’s divisional game at Carolina. However, that hasn’t prevented the NFL betting market from sinking this total from 48.5 all the way down to 44. The Bucs lost Chris Godwin for the year last week and top RB Leonard Fournette is also set to miss this week’s game. The status of wideout Mike Evans remains up in the air, but he was yet to practice this week at the time of writing on Thursday morning. 

Ont the other side of the ball, who knows what Matt Rhule’s plan is at quarterback this week. All indications seem to point towards Cam Newton starting again, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing based on his recent form. Even with Sam Darnold designated to return from IR, the Panthers are still without a competent QB. That’s bad news in a matchup against one of the best defenses in football.

Giants at Eagles (43.5 down to 40.5)

The New York Giants announced earlier this week that they are shutting down quarterback Daniel Jones for the remainder of the season. Considering that they have more to gain in terms of draft position by losing out than they do winning, the move makes sense. The decision almost certainly played a part in the total for Sunday’s divisional game against the Philadelphia Eagles plummeting down three full points as well. With both teams grading far better in adjusted defensive efficiency against the pass than the run, this matchup could turn into a run-heavy slugfest. It’s also worth noting that the two teams combined for all of 20 total points in their first head-to-head meeting this season, a 13-7 Giants win.

Week 16 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for the Week 16 NFL games including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, December 23rd. 

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
49ers Titans	43.5 -1	-3 44.5
Browns Packers	44.5 -7	45.5 -7.5
Colts Cardinals	49 -5	49 -1
Buccaneers Panthers	-11 48.5	-10 44
Giants Eagles	43.5 -9	40.5 -10
Chargers Texans	-10.5 45.5	-10 46
Lions Falcons	44 -6.5	42.5 -5.5
Ravens Bengals	44.5 -2.5	45 -3
Rams Vikings	-3.5 49	-3 49
Jaguars Jets	41 -1.5	PICK PICK
Bills Patriots	44 -2	43.5 -2
Bears Seahawks	44.5 -7	43 -6.5
Steelers Chiefs	48 -9.5	44.5 -7.5
Broncos Raiders	PICK PICK	41.5 PICK
Washington Cowboys	48 -9.5	47 -10.5
Dolphins Saints	40 -3.5	39 -3

 
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.