NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 17 (2021)
There are now just two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season. One of the wildest NFL betting seasons in recent memory has once again seen plenty of line movement ahead of Week 17 action. In addition to the impact of injuries and virus protocols, respective playoff scenarios also tend to impact the market. In many cases, this results in teams who have to win to either make the postseason or improve their seeding being overvalued. Exhibit A could certainly be the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend. Despite a double-digit point spread that moved further in their favor before kickoff, L.A. lost outright to the lowly Houston Texans. Bettors are advised to make decisions based on the power ratings and valuations that they have utilized all season long.
The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 17 slate is included at the end of this column.
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Significant NFL Week 17 Line Moves | Point Spreads
Texans at 49ers (SF from -15 to -12.5)
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that what opened as a spread north of two touchdowns in favor of the San Francisco 49ers has been diminished by 2.5 points. After all, the 49ers gagged away a victory last week against the Tennessee Titans. Of course, as mentioned in the intro, the Houston Texans sprung a stunning upset as double-digit NFL betting underdogs. While recency bias certainly suggested that this line was due to move in the Texans’ favor, the 49ers are also facing uncertainty at quarterback.
After an ugly two-INT game in last Thursday’s loss, veteran starter Jimmy Garoppolo did not practice at all this week. San Francisco has officially listed him as “doubtful†on the final injury report. All signs point toward rookie No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance stepping in as the starter. While the 49ers should have no trouble running the ball against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, Lance’s inaccuracy as a passer is undoubtedly part of the thought process behind this line move.
Cardinals at Cowboys (DAL from -2 to -6)
Both the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys have already clinched postseason berths. However, the two sides are trending in drastically different directions down the stretch of the regular season. The Cardinals enter this matchup on a three-game losing skid. After getting blown out by the two-win Detroit Lions two weeks ago, Arizona lost at home to a shorthanded Indianapolis Colts outfit on Christmas Night. Meanwhile, the Cowboys made a big-time statement last Sunday night with a 42-point win over Washington. While momentum is squarely on Dallas’ side, it is worth noting that the Cowboys have not fared particularly well against playoff-bound teams this season.
Browns at Steelers (CLE from +1.5 to -3)
Both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers suffered crushing blows to their postseason hopes last week. While the Browns were victimized by four Baker Mayfield interceptions, the Steelers never had a chance against a virus-depleted Kansas City Chiefs team. Despite the setbacks, both sides still have everything out in front of them with respect to both a Wild Card and the AFC North Division. The winner of this Monday Night Football showdown will have a great chance to reach the playoffs.
In all honesty, this NFL betting line move is one of the more confusing ones on the board. One has to believe that moving the Browns through pick’em and all the way up to the key number of -3 is more of a bet against the Steelers than anything. However, with Monday’s game likely to be Ben Roethlisberger’s last home game as a Steeler, Pittsburgh is bound to show up. It’s also fair to question whether or not such a significant downgrade following a loss to a streaking Chiefs team is valid.
Significant NFL Week 17 Line Moves | Totals
Raiders at Colts (48 down to 44.5)
One of several Week 17 NFL betting matchups with massive playoff implications is this game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts. Both teams remain in contention for an AFC Wild Card spot. That being said, the seven-point spread in the Colts’ favor serves as a pretty good indicator of how the market views the legitimacy of these two teams.
There are a couple of factors that are likely behind this 3.5-point swing to the under. For starters, the Raiders’ offense has been pathetic over the last two months. Only once since the start of November has Las Vegas scored more than 17 points. Combine Derek Carr’s lack of weapons with a stout Colts defense and it could be another struggle on Sunday. The other key factor is the status of Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz. In fact, this game was off the betting board earlier in the week after he landed in virus protocols. While the current spread and multiple reports indicate Wentz will start on Sunday, it has yet to be confirmed at the time of writing.
Chiefs at Bengals (47.5 up to 51)
All appears to be well for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense after a rocky regular season overall. The past two weeks marked the first time in which the Chiefs exceeded 30 points scored in back-to-back games since Weeks 3 and 4. Of course, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals also exploded for 41 points, albeit against an injury-depleted opponent. Nonetheless, the NFL betting market is expecting a shootout between these two AFC division leaders on Sunday. While both offenses are capable of blowing up at any time, bettors should be wary of underestimating each team’s respective defense in this matchup. It is much easier to rationalize betting over the opening number of 47.5 than it is now after a 3.5-point line move.
Week 17 NFL Betting Line Moves Table
Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for the Week 17 NFL games including those discussed above.
Note: All current odds reflect lines at 12 p.m. EDT on Friday, December 31st.
| Matchup | Opening Lines | Current Vegas Consensus |
| Raiders Colts |
48 -7.5 |
44.5 -7 |
| Giants Bears |
37.5 -4 |
37 -6 |
| Buccaneers Jets |
-11 45.5 |
-13.5 45.5 |
| Falcons Bills |
44 -13.5 |
44.5 -14.5 |
| Eagles Washington |
-2.5 43.5 |
-4.5 45 |
| Chiefs Bengals |
-4 47.5 |
-5 51 |
| Jaguars Patriots |
42 -15.5 |
41.5 -16.5 |
| Dolphins Titans |
40.5 -3.5 |
40 -3.5 |
| Rams Ravens |
-2.5 45.5 |
-5.5 46.5 |
| Broncos Chargers |
45.5 -6 |
45.5 -6.5 |
| Texans 49ers |
44.5 -15 |
44 -12.5 |
| Cardinals Cowboys |
50 -2.5 |
51.5 -6 |
| Panthers Saints |
39.5 -7 |
37.5 -6.5 |
| Lions Seahawks |
42 -9.5 |
41.5 -7.5 |
| Vikings Packers |
46 -7 |
42.5 -13 |
| Browns Steelers |
41.5 -1.5 |
-3.5 41.5 |
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.