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NFL Betting Primer: Patriots vs. Seahawks Picks (Wednesday)

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We finally made it! The 2026 NFL season has finally arrived, and we don’t even need to wait till Thursday night for kickoff. The New England Patriots are heading to the great Northwest to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of the last NFL game we saw in 2025. For those who don’t remember (or Patriots fans trying to erase Super Bowl LX from their minds), Seattle curb-stomped the Patriots 29-13 back in February.

The final box score hardly captures the sheer dominance displayed by Mike Macdonald’s roster. Per Sharp Football, the Pats totaled 78 yards through three quarters. Woof.

But 2026 is a brand new season. Both teams are 0-0, and Mike Vrabel’s Patriots are licking their chops to take another shot at the champs. After facing a cupcake schedule throughout the entire 2025 season, New England is given no handouts in Week 1, playing on the road in a hostile environment.

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NFL Week 1 Kickoff Betting Primer

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5

Trends

  • Seattle is 16-1 SU (94.1%) and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) as a favorite dating back to last season, including the Super Bowl - they’re favored again to open 2026.
  • As a home favorite specifically, Seattle is 10-2 SU (83.3%) since 2024, 8-1 (88.9%) during the 2025 regular season - the neutral-site Super Bowl doesn’t count toward the home-specific split).
  • Seattle leans Over on the total both as a favorite (10-7 in 2025, 58.8%; 14-9 since 2024, 60.9%) and specifically at home (7-3 in 2025, 51.2 PPG, 70%) - worth weighing against a total that sits at 44.5.
  • New England won its last 9 true road games in 2025 (9-0 SU, 100%; 7-2 ATS, 77.8%) before their Super Bowl loss - an excellent true-road number. Caveat worth flagging: their only loss all season by more than one score came in that Super Bowl, a 16-point defeat to this same Seattle team.
  • The Pats are 4-3 O/U as an underdog in 2025.
  • New England was 4-3 SU (57.1%) as an underdog in 2025 and will be an underdog again here (4-0 as road underdogs).
  • The Patriots have covered five straight as road underdogs.
  • Super Bowl losers are just 7-19 against the spread in their Week 1 games the following season, via RG.org.
  • Mike Macdonald has THRIVED in rematches. Seattle’s HC is undefeated (8-0) in his head coaching career in same-season rematches. In their second/third matchups versus the three NFC West teams in 2025...Seattle averaged 33.4 points per game. Just 18.3 in the first matchups (1-2 SU, ATS).

Injuries

  • Christian Barmore (DT, NE) - Coach Vrabel said Monday (9/7) that Barmore’s knee absence is the same in-season load-management plan they used all through 2025, when he played all 17 regular-season games plus all four playoff games. He was expected back at practice Monday.
  • TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE) - as of a Sept 7 report, he’s now missed practice for two full weeks with the ankle injury and is trending toward missing the opener, not just “questionable.” Side note for context, not a change either way: even at full health, he wasn’t projected to start over Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s the clear lead back.
    Nick Emmanwori (S, SEA) - per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler (Sept 5), he’s “iffy at best” and the outlook now points toward missing Week 1 and possibly Week 2 vs. Arizona too, not just being limited. He’s about six weeks post ankle surgery.
  • Ty Okada (S, SEA) - still hamstring, still DNP Sunday, still uncertain for Wednesday.
  • Ben Brown (C, NE) - no new reporting found beyond the original Sunday knee/DNP/questionable listing.
  • Christian Gonzalez (CB, NE) – Not injury-related, but was non-committal about playing given his lack of a new contract. Naturally, he signs a mega-deal the day after I submit this article. Good for Gonzo. Well deserved for the last great draft selection Bill Belichick made (even though he wanted EDGE rusher Keion White more).

Overall

A glance at the current betting lines suggests that not much has changed for these teams since February. NE is still laying more than a FG to Seattle, with the game total just one point lower than the SB matchup. But both of these teams have had some roster turnover, as we see every single season. Offensively, Seattle has stayed relatively the same – except for two very key spots. OC Klint Kubiak left to become the HC of the Raiders. Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker signed with the Chiefs in free agency (subsequently replaced by rookie RB Jadarian Price). The Notre Dame product should see his fair share of touches on Wednesday night, but I guarantee Vrabel is stressing to his defensive players to go after the ball whenever Price gets his number called. He had major ball security issues in college, and the Patriots have to win the turnover battle if they want to upset the champs in their house. Sam Darnold also led the NFL in combined turnovers last year as well.

But I want to look at the Seahawks defense specifically for Week 1. Because on Seattle’s injury front, they do have some issues in their secondary…as Julian Love is their only confirmed fully healthy safety (he missed nearly half of last season with injuries). Keep in mind this team also lost safety Coby Bryant in free agency. CB Tariq Woolen also left the team. Second-round rookie safety pick Bud Clark got hurt in the preseason. We could see some coverage breakdowns in the back end as the Patriots try to generate explosive plays with their newly acquired WRs, A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs.

In addition to those two new WRs, the Patriots will also have a much healthier offensive line and quarterback playing in this rematch of Super Bowl LX.

Defensively, the Patriots’ run defense still has a wall between Milton Williams and Christian Barmore plugging up the interior. So I would expect a fair share of outside zone runs to get Seattle’s speedy first-round RB to the edge (New England’s biggest weakness on defense). And even if Gonzalez can take away Jaxson Smith-Njigba, I’m fully expecting an expanded role for No. 2 Seahawks WR, Rashid Shaheed.

Again, when you zoom out on both these defenses…their strengths are in the run defense more than their secondaries (even if the pass defense is still relatively effective). Both defenses finished last season top-3 in EPA/rush allowed.

The Patriots know they won’t be able to string together double-digit drives on the road against this elite defense. They have to create chunk plays, so I’d bet they remain aggressive on offense. Meanwhile, I’d expect Sam Darnold to have plenty of time in the pocket to complete whatever passes he wants against a non-existent Patriots’ pass rush. The Seahawks QB finished 8th in EPA/dropback from a clean pocket in 2025.

Call me crazy, but I think we see at least 45 points on the board on Wednesday night. Seattle itself leans Over as a favorite and at home. Patriots play well on the road and match up much better in their current 2026 form against a more suspect Seattle secondary.

Props

Per Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald: Whether he's rushing, receiving, or blocking, [Rhamondre] Stevenson will be at the center of everything the Pats try against Seattle; a bell cow and bellwether for their offense survives Wednesday night. I also like the Over on the NE RBs in the passing game. Seattle allowed a league-high 5.7 receptions per game to RBs (6th-most yards at 37.6 per game) in 2025. TreyVeon Henderson was a perfect 6-for-0 toward the Over on his receptions when the Patriots have been underdogs.

Stevenson also went over his receiving yards prop in 4-of-5 games last year when the Pats were catching points. Gone over 23.5 receiving yards in 7-of-10 games played.

He caught five passes for 40 yards in the Super Bowl loss to Seattle.

Drake Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers’ defense during Wild Card Weekend, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last two times he has rushed for at least 50 yards were when he faced top-10 defenses. Maye has gone over 40 rushing yards in five of his last eight games. He went well over his rushing yards mark versus the Broncos, rushing for 65 yards on 10 carries. Also went over 40 yards in the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks.

The 2025 Seahawks’ defense was nicknamed Dark Side and they love to play a lot of zone coverage. Typically, versus zone coverage, you see more targets to RBs/TEs as underneath options.

We’ve seen several reports surface from a number of sources about Price’s role in the Seahawks’ backfield. Needless to say, there seems to be a wide range of his potential Week 1 outcomes. He’s in a committee, which is not dissimilar to what we saw Seattle do last season.

Kenneth Walker only had over 13.5 carries in 9/19 games last season. Before he got unleashed from Week 17 onward. KW3 hit over 13.5 carries just 4 times in 14 games played with a healthy Zach Charbonnet. TreyVeon Henderson only went over 13.5 carries 6 times last year in 20 games played. I’m taking the under on the rookie’s 13.5 rushing attempts prop. Price went over 13.5 carries once during his tenure at Notre Dame.

In Rashid Shaheed’s last 15 games played with Chris Olave with the Saints.

He averaged slightly more receiving yards/gm (56.5 versus 56).

And fantasy PPG (10.1 vs 9.6). Dude’s underrated, and he was just underutilized in Seattle after last year’s mid-year trade. He surpassed 57% of the snaps only once. Being traded midway through the season, it appeared he was never fully integrated into the Seahawks’ offense. That likely won't be the case in 2026, after Seattle signed Shaheed to a 3-year, $51 million contract.

The majority of TDs both of these teams gave up last year came through the air. And that held through in the Super Bowl. All 3 TDs (AJ Barner, Mack Hollins, and Stevenson) came on passes. I liked Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas as sleeper TD bets in the Super Bowl…so maybe it was just a case of being a tad too early.

Henry entered Super Bowl LX first among all non-RBs in red-zone targets (second-most games with a TD). I like his TD odds at close to 3-1, along with Douglas (7-1). Douglas is great after the catch and could see some favorable slot matchups given the injury to Nick Emmanwori. Douglas also led the Patriots in receiving yards the last time they played Seattle (45 yards).

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