NFL Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets: Packers vs. Eagles (Friday)

Friday Night Football Betting Primer

Philadelphia (PHI) vs. Green Bay (GB): PHI -3

Sides

• The Packers are 11-6 ATS as underdogs in their last 17 games played.
• The 2023 Packers were 8-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense, 7-3 ATS.
• Green Bay was 4-5 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points.
• GB was 67% ATS as an underdog in 2023, 6-6 overall.
• 4-0 ATS over the last four games played.
• GB has the third-best scoring margin on the road in 2023.
• The Eagles were 43% ATS as a favorite in 2023.
• 0-7 ATS overall in their last seven games played.
• The Eagles were 3-9-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points. In 2023, they covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.

Totals

• The Packers were 11-8 toward the over in 2023.
• The Eagles were 9-9 toward the over in 2023. But 2-8 toward the over on the road.
• The Packers have scored first in each of their last six road games.
• From Week 10, the Packers’ first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27 and 10.
• Seven of the Packers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers' last seven road games has gone OVER the total points line.
• These teams averaged 47.5 points per game last season

Overall

At first glance, a game on a neutral field between two NFC heavyweights seems a bit skewed toward the Eagles as 3-point favorites. Note that the Packers advanced farther into the NFC postseason last season after Philly collapsed in the second half of the season. The Eagles lost six of their last seven games.

Green Bay had the 49ers on the run (leading 21-7) in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs despite being 10-point underdogs.

There are a lot of question marks regarding how the targets will be distrubuted among the Packers WR room, making it tough to confidently bet OVERs on any of the top-four guys. Each of the top guys (outside of Dontayvion Wicks) is projected for 3.5 receptions. Christian Watson has to be the toughest to trust to get to four catches, considering he has gone under his reception line in nine of his last 11 games.

Interestingly enough, a better way to allocate funds is probably betting on the anytime TDs of the Packers WRs as opposed to their yardage/receptions props. We know Jordan Love is good for 2-plus passing TDs. Every beat report I've read this offseason suggests that Romeo Doubs is the red zone guy for Love; at +225 (third-longest odds among the top 3), that represents the best bang for your buck. Additionally, per DraftKings Sportsbook, Doubs has recorded 53+ receiving yards in four of the Packers’ last five games as underdogs.

More on the matchup itself, I’ll let BettingPros analyst Pat Fitzmaurice chime in.

Last we saw the Eagles in a game that counts, they were being clobbered by the Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs, capping off a catastrophic late-season collapse. The Eagles have changed coordinators on both sides of the ball, but the man who captained Philadelphia’s version of the Exxon Valdez, Nick Sirianni, is still the head coach. And the Eagles are favored in a neutral-site international game against the Packers, who were red-hot down the stretch and may have been a missed field goal away from beating the 49ers to reach the NFL Championship Game? The wrong team is favored here. Back the Pack."

I couldn't have said it better myself, Fitz. I'm not convinced the Eagles are a 3-point better team than the Packers on a neutral field. It’s closer to a pick ’em in my projections and the BettingPros projections. And given how well the Packers have performed as underdogs during Jordan Love's tenure, this is an easy selection for me. It is just a matter of weighing the safety of the Packers ATS versus betting them to win outright. Make your Friday night a memorable one.

The Packers ML at +120 has 45 percent implied odds. In their last nine games as underdogs, the Packers are 5-4 (55% win rate) with a 71 percent ROI.

As for the total, this is another layup for me. Bet the Under on the inflated total, set at a whopping 49.5 points. This game is being played in Sao Paulo, Brazil, where there are a lot of unknown factors at play.

Consider that Matt LeFleur's offenses also tend to play better against teams he is familiar with, and it's another reason to go toward the under. LeFleur and Love don't know exactly what to expect from the Eagles’ new DC, Vic Fangio, who spent last season with the Dolphins. Don’t expect a shootout.

However, I still need to give the Packers a slight edge, given that GB's old DC, Joe Barry, ran a similar scheme to Fangio. Given LeFleur’s familiarity with Barry as his former coach, he might have the slight edge to give him an advantage.

Also, on the Barry factor (trust me, this is fun): In his pseudo-Fangio scheme last season, the Packers got destroyed by TEs. Interestingly enough, the Dolphins under Fangio were equally as bad versus TEs, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position in 2023.

Given that the Eagles don't invest a ton of draft capital in the linebacker position and have a combination of rookies/veteran safeties that pose question marks in coverage, I think this could be a sneaky big/involved game for the Packers TE duo. My favorite anytime TD bet for Week 1 in this matchup? Tucker Kraft. Viewed as the No. 2 tight end across many publications, the second-year tight end has been turning heads since returning from an offseason pectoral injury. In the Packers' postseason finale, Kraft commanded six targets (18.2%), catching three receptions for nine yards and a touchdown with multiple red-zone looks. Anytime TD odds are listed at +950.

Both teams also have new starting RBs, adding another layer of uncertainty to each offense. The market seems overconfident in both offenses to generate a total this high when, traditionally, international games tend to play much closer to the under. Both of these teams also hardly played their starters in the preseason, suggesting we might get some “preseason” looking action on Friday night.

Props

• I like this game for Packer slot WR Jayden Reed, given he will match up versus either Quinyon Mitchell and/or Cooper DeJean in the slot. Reed has at least 3.5 catches in nine of his last 10 games.
• Jordan Love has tossed 2-plus TDs in nine of his last 10 games played, including six straight. He has scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games.
• Jordan Love has recorded 267+ passing yards in each of the Packers’ last four regular season games as underdogs.
• Love has gone for 250-plus yards in eight of his last 11 games.
• Philly allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs in 2023.
• Seven of the last 11 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.
• Dallas Goedert has gone under 38.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 15 games. With the addition of pass-catchers Jahan Dotson and Saquon Barkley, Goedert might be facing an uphill battle for opportunities in this Week 1 matchup.

My Picks

• Packers ML
• Under 49.5
• Christian Watson under 3.5 receptions
• Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions
• Dallas Goedert under 38.5 receiving yards
• Jordan Love over 257.5 passing yards
• Tucker Kraft anytime TD