NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Player Props (Conference Championships)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 22, 2026

Two games. One step from the Super Bowl. This is where narratives disappear and execution takes over. Every snap is magnified. Every coaching decision matters. Betting edges are thinner than they've been all season. Let's get into it.

5-Star NFL Props through 20 weeks:

55% Win Rate
+83.75 units won
5% ROI

With game scripts becoming more predictable and rotations tightening, props often provide cleaner edges than sides or totals. Whether it’s volume-based markets like rushing attempts or situational angles tied to pace and game flow, this slate is built for bettors who are willing to dig one layer deeper.

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NFL Conference Championships Betting Primer

AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Erickson's Pick: Broncos +5.5 (Total Under 41.5 Points)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

The Broncos hold a 6-1 record in home AFC Championship games, with their only loss coming in 2005.
Even though the Broncos are 10-1 at home this season and 12-2 in one-score games, they are just 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They are 4-9 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025. Much better ATS as an underdog.
The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
Five of the Broncos’ last seven games have gone over the total points line.
Denver has covered four straight as an underdog - 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 straight up (SU).
Denver as an underdog is 1-4 toward the total this season
Thirteen of the Broncos' last 20 games have gone under the total points line.
In two starts with Denver in 2023, Jarrett Stidham’s offenses averaged 15 points per game. (He threw for 224+ yards in both starts with at least one passing touchdown).
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Broncos' last eight games.
The Patriots have won each of their last eight road games (8-0 on the road this season and 7-1 ATS).
The Patriots have covered five straight as road underdogs.
The Patriots have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
The Patriots are 3-1 ATS as road favorites this season; 2-1 ATS as road touchdown favorites.
The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
The Patriots have won 12 straight as favorites.
The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games.

Overall:

This AFC Championship game matchup took a sharp turn late in the Divisional Round, with Bo Nix officially ruled out after breaking his ankle in Denver's win over Buffalo. Jarrett Stidham (the former New England Patriot and highly-coveted Broncos No. 2 quarterback) will start in Nix's place.

That injury reshapes everything about how this game should be handicapped - from the spread to the total to the prop market.

The lookahead lines before last weekend's games of a potential Broncos-Patriots AFC Championship Game were nearly identical to the Broncos-Bills point spread (DEN -1.5), but those odds have dramatically shifted to the Patriots as heavy road favorites.

But is it too much?

Before the season, oddsmakers ranked all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks by point-spread value.

Bo Nix was worth about four points. After this season, that still feels right. He hasn't been the best quarterback or necessarily the reason why the Broncos have covered spreads. However, he has helped them win games, particularly in the second halves of games.

Nix had a league-high eight game-winning drives this season. Denver was just 10-8 ATS in the first half of games this season.

Benjamin Allbright covers and follows the Broncos closely, so I try to pay close attention to some of his analysis. He makes some valid points about the quarterback change:

The Patriots are 5.5-point road favorites early on Monday morning (moved from 4.5 at some sportsbooks). I think it's too many points.

As I explained in the early lines show for Championship Weekend, this movement to 5.5 suggests that Nix is worth seven points ATS. And frankly, that’s too aggressive considering the NFL’s best and elite quarterbacks barely scratch the seven-point marker.

Denver will be the third straight top-10 defense New England will face - and their offense hasn't been as great the last two weeks, averaging just 18.5 points. This will be the first time all season that they have to play an elite defense on the road.

The Patriots’ offensive line has been shaky in pass protection, and that won't get easier versus Denver.

The Patriots rank 25th in pressure rate allowed. The Broncos rank second in pressure rate (first in sacks/sack percentage).

Maye has taken at least five sacks when facing top-10 defenses this season (also thrown at least one interception). He also has six fumbles in the last two games. Maye had nine total fumbles in the regular season.

Denver also has the No. 1 defense in expected points added (EPA)/pass attempt allowed on passes thrown 20+ yards.

I’ve never been the biggest Nix believer, but I can recognize that his loss hurts Denver’s chances of winning this game. He has been clutch in the fourth quarter all season, and I am afraid that will hurt Denver in the fourth quarter of this contest. But Maye and the Patriots are going to have their work cut out for them playing in a hostile environment.

Denver earned its way to its own home-field advantage, but now has to do it without the quarterback who rallied them to so many wins.

New England enters this spot with momentum, road confidence and the benefit of facing a Broncos team forced to adjust on the fly at the most important moment of the year.

They are also the much healthier team overall.

Ultimately, the Patriots squeak out a tight one to get back to the Super Bowl. But I think Denver easily covers the 5.5-point spread.

The downgrade from Nix to Stidham is being overemphasized in the point spread, even if it increases the Patriots’ odds of winning outright. He is a competent backup, and there’s a reason why Sean Payton signed him in free agency a few years back to solid money.

Keep in mind that New England has won just two of its eight road games by more than six points (against the Titans and Jets).

And according to Matt Perrault, teams that are four-point home dogs or more in the playoffs are 10-0 ATS.

As for the total, I’m betting on the under.

New England’s offense might struggle to generate explosive plays versus this defense. Bad offensive lines don’t tend to travel well.

Denver’s offensive output is hard to peg, given the downgrade at quarterback. Stidham and Payton understand that if their defense can show out, that can be a path to victory. Be smart with the ball. But acknowledge the Broncos’ offense might be forced to dropback more, given how elite the Patriots’ run defense is.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Woody Marks was stuffed for a loss or no gain on eight of his 14 carries against the Patriots, the second-highest stuff rate of any player in any regular or postseason game this season (minimum 10 carries). Marks totaled just 17 carries and had only two successful runs (14.3% success rate), while the Patriots’ defense allowed just 41 yards on 21 designed carries. The Patriots allowed just 1.5 yards after contact per carry, their lowest in any regular or postseason game this season.

I said this last week while hammering the under on Marks’ rushing yardage prop: You cannot run on a healthy Patriots run defense. If RJ Harvey couldn't do it versus Buffalo, well, I like my odds that he falls short in a much tougher matchup versus the Patriots. His rushing prop opened at 56.5 rushing yards. It’s now at 43.5 yards on Hard Rock Bet. I still like the under (same with his attempts), with the chance that J.K. Dobbins returns to action this week.

Under 43.5 yards in the last three games, Dobbins may be coming back (TBD). The rookie’s rushing yards have decreased in six straight games even with Dobbins out.

Twelve regular-season games with Milton Williams: 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game; 3.2 yards per carry allowed. Five games without Williams: 127 rushing yards allowed per game; 5.2 yards per carry allowed. In the Wildcard Round, Chargers RBs combined for 12 carries for 30 yards (2.7 YPC).

No RB had more than 60 rushing yards through the first 11 games they played this season.

The Patriots’ defense has also come alive in recent weeks. In 2025, they have allowed fewer than 18 points per game (Denver is at 18.9 points per game allowed). Both teams rank inside the top four in points per game allowed.

Injuries of note: In addition to Nix, Denver lost two receivers versus Buffalo: Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. Center Alex Forsyth also got hurt. The Patriots might be without cornerback Carlton Davis, who suffered a head injury and is in the concussion protocol.

Courtland Sutton has finished with fewer than 4.5 receptions in three straight games. With a tough matchup against Christian Gonzalez and a new quarterback under center, take the under.

Evan Engram is the next man up in the slot. He was third on the team in slot routes behind only Bryant/Franklin. The Patriots have allowed the league's second-highest passing touchdown rate (67%). Franklin was the Broncos’ top red-zone option all year. Sutton might get locked up by Gonzalez.

That leaves Engram as the next most-targeted red-zone threat in Denver’s offense. The Patriots have been below average versus tight ends this season - 11th in yards allowed per game to tight ends (57.1). Engram has 20+ yards in three of his last four games played. As Allbright alluded to with the quarterback swap, Stidham is more likely to use the middle of the field where Engram operates, while also taking more shots down the seam.

I think Engram’s receiving yards deserve some alternate bets this weekend. Even if Franklin/Bryant play…they might not be as featured in the offensive game plan with a new QB under center.

Engram has 4 games with 40-plus yards this season (79 is his season-high). 4 TEs vs the Pats have gone for at least 62 yards (two 100-yard games allowed). Dalton Schultz had 47 last week and he left the game in the first half. Stidham has at least 219 passing yards in each of his four starts. His leading receivers have hit the following marks: 153, 73, 69, and 88 receiving yards. If I am “right” about Engram seeing boosted usage with Stidham at QB, we can take full advantage.

The Patriots are allowing the fifth-most catches to running backs this season. Bet the under on Harvey’s rushing yards, while taking the over on his catches prop (2.5+ receptions in seven of his last 10 games).

Drake Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers' defense during Wild Card Weekend, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last time he rushed for at least 50 yards was when he faced the Browns’ top-10 defense in Week 8. Maye has gone over 35.5 rushing yards in three of his last six games. He fell short last week, but I like him to get back to using his legs this weekend versus another elite pass rush. The Broncos have allowed five straight overs to quarterback rushing yardage props.

Props:

NFC Championship Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Erickson's Pick: Game Total Under 47.5 Points (Lean Rams +2.5)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

Three of the last four games between the Rams and Seahawks at Lumen Field have gone to overtime.
Anytime the total between the Rams-Seahawks has closed north of 42.5 points, the game has gone under in the last five matchups. At 42 points or lower, the game went over the total (one game went into overtime).
As for the total, both defenses rank in the top five in the red zone.
The Seahawks have their last eight games.
The Rams have won 10 straight as favorites versus the Seahawks.
Seattle is 9-2 straight up as a home favorite since 2024 (7-1 this season).
Seven of the Rams’ last eight games have gone over the total points line.
Seattle has won 12 straight as favorites.
Seattle is 6-3 toward the over at home this season (50.4 points per game).
Seattle is 3-0 ATS/SU after a bye week (7-3 ATS/8-2 SU with rest advantage since 2024).
The Rams are 6-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage (5-3 SU). They are also 7-1 toward the over.
The Rams have covered six straight in Seattle.
Sam Darnold is 0-3 ATS versus the Rams as a favorite (1-2 SU).
The Rams are 8-2 toward the over/under on the road this season.
The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (11-5 ATS/13-2 SU). They are 11-2 ATS versus all teams not named the Panthers.
As a road underdog, the Rams are 7-5-1 ATS but 3-10 SU since 2023.

Overall:

For the third time this season, the Rams and Seahawks meet - and if the first two games taught us anything, it's that familiarity breeds volatility. Divisional rivals don't surprise each other, and by this point, there are no schematic secrets left. What changes are execution, health and who blinks first under championship pressure?

The two previous matchups have been decided by a combined three points. The average losing margin by these teams is fewer than four points.

Seattle earned home-field advantage, but the Rams arrive with the benefit of having already seen every adjustment, every coverage wrinkle, and every tendency this Seahawks staff can throw at them. When teams meet for a third time, betting angles shift away from raw power ratings and toward game-script leverage, coaching aggression and situational edges - especially late.

This is the kind of matchup that rewards bettors who understand how playoff rematches actually play out, not how the regular season looked on paper.

I've gone back and read my pre-game write-ups for both previous matchups.

Both times, I backed Seattle. And depending on the line, you might be 2-0 betting Seattle ATS versus Los Angeles this season.

But we have seen Sam Darnold play some of his worst football at times against the Chris Shula-led Rams’ defense. Darnold is 0-3 ATS versus the Rams as a favorite (1-2 SU). 1-3 SU in the last four matchups (three of which Darnold has been favored).

Sam Darnold’s first career playoff start was a 2024 Wild Card loss to the Rams where he was sacked 9 times, tied for the most sacks taken in a playoff game all-time.
Darnold is 1-3 vs the Rams with 5 pass touchdowns and 7 interceptions since Chris Shula became the Rams Defensive Coordinator in 2024, including playoffs (Next Gen Stats). Darnold has been sacked 16 times and completed just 23 of 46 passes for 254 yards and four interceptions when under pressure (on 62 pressured dropbacks).
Notably, 13 of those 16 sacks occurred when the Rams sent four or fewer pass rushers, including six such sacks during the 2024 Wild Card Round when Darnold was a member of the Vikings. In third-and-long situations (seven or more yards to go), the Rams sacked Darnold twice and limited him to 1-of-7 passing for eight yards and two interceptions when generating pressure.

In the last three games versus the Rams, Darnold has been intercepted 7 times. His odds to throw an interception are -115 on Hard Rock Bet.

As I wrote before the second matchup on Thursday Night...

"Sam Darnold completed 29-of-44 attempts for 279 passing yards, but threw four interceptions in the Seahawks' loss to the Rams back in Week 11. All four of Darnold's interceptions came while he stood in the pocket with a time to throw of over 2.5 seconds, completing only 9-of-18 such throws for 68 yards. On throws over 10 air yards, Darnold completed just 3-of-12 attempts for 61 yards, including three of his four interceptions."

Despite all of the turnovers in Week 11, the Seahawks still had a chance to beat the Rams back in Los Angeles, losing 21-19 (but covering the +3.5 spread).

In Darnold's last two games against the Rams, he completed just 7-of-26 downfield passes for zero touchdowns and three interceptions, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Darnold would go on to help Seattle mount a comeback (although not cover), despite the Rams holding a 97% win probability in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks’ win probability was as low as 2.7% with 9:04 left, trailing 30-14 in their 38-37 overtime comeback win over the Rams in Week 16.

Darnold completed 22-of-23 passes for 270 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Rams in Week 16.

The Rams lost to the Seahawks despite having 581 total yards, zero sacks taken and recording three takeaways.

Rashid Shaheed recorded a 58-yard punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter to cut a 16-point deficit in half.

Special teams have been one of the Rams' Achilles heels this season, and will definitely be an X-factor in this game.

But all things considered, the Rams should probably be 2-0 against Seattle. It might actually be a good thing from the Rams’ perspective, considering how difficult it can be to beat a divisional rival thrice in the same season.

Note that Davante Adams did not play in the second matchup between these two teams due to a hamstring injury.

Feel much less confident picking a side in this game, which is why I settled with the Rams and the points. I would feel much better about a Rams upset if they weren’t coming off an overtime game/short week.

Matthew Stafford hasn’t been sacked in either game versus Seattle this season.

I do like a two-game parlay between Seattle/New England Moneyline plays (+130) or (+220) if you like the Rams to win outright.

As for the total, I like the under based on the trends between these two teams:

Anytime the total between the Rams-Seahawks has closed north of 42.5 points, the game has gone under in the last five matchups. At 42 points or lower, the game went over the total (one game went into overtime).
Both defenses rank in the top five in the red zone.
When Darnold faced the Rams last year in the playoffs, the game went way under 48 points.
Both defenses are allowing fewer than 21 points per game.

Zach Charbonnet got imaging done on his knee after departing Saturday’s NFC Divisional Round game against the 49ers. It was reported on Monday that Charbonnet tore his ACL, and he will be out for an extended period of time.

Kenneth Walker III rushed for 116 yards and three touchdowns across 19 carries, recording his third-highest career success rate (63.2%) against the 49ers on Saturday, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Walker was particularly effective running outside the tackles, gaining 79 yards and all three touchdowns on 13 carries. Against stacked or neutral boxes (seven or more defenders), Walker generated 94 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and two touchdowns on 15 carries with a 73.3% success rate and three explosive runs of 10+ yards.

Walker also reached his third-fastest average speed at the line of scrimmage of his career (13.51 miles per hour), contributing to his second-highest success rate since entering the league in 2022 (63.2%, minimum five carries).

Emmanuel Forbes (shoulder) was listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s Divisional round matchup with the Bears, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. Byron Young has some soreness in his knee. Both are expected to play on Sunday.

Charles Cross exited Saturday’s divisional-round game versus the 49ers with a foot injury and is considered questionable to return. He’s officially listed as day-to-day, but Mike Macdonald said he doesn’t need to practice to play on Sunday night.

Still, not ideal that left tackles Cross, Josh Jones and Amari Knight are on the injury report heading into championship weekend.

Terrance Ferguson scored the last time L.A. played Seattle. He had an end-zone target last week versus the Bears (totaled five targets). Also out-snapped Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen.

Per Next Gen Stats, the rookie tight end averaged 17.6 air yards per target this season, the most among players at his position with at least 25 targets by more than six full yards. Ferguson was targeted on 12 of his 37 deep routes (32.4%), the highest rate among tight ends to run at least 15 such routes. He hauled in five deep targets for 144 yards and two touchdowns, good for the second-most deep receiving yards by a tight end.

Cooper Kupp had at least three catches in both games versus his old team this season. He has gone over 2.5 catches in three of his last five games (over in four straight home games).

Last week, Kupp led Seattle with five catches for 60 yards on five targets. He is also still playing ahead of Shaheed. Kupp played 74% of the snaps versus the 49ers, running 15 routes (33% target rate).

The Rams have been bad versus slot receivers this season, and Kupp leads Seattle in slot routes run this season. Kupp over 2.5 receptions has a five-star bet rating.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has also gone over 6.5 receptions in both matchups versus the Rams this year. As did AJ Barner - given that Darnold completed 22 and 29 passes, well above his 18.5 completions per game average in 2025.

Kyren Williams has rushed for at least 54 rushing yards in nine out of the last 10 games. And he has hit the over in both matchups versus Seattle this season (70 and 91 yards). He also hit the over last season at Seattle (69 rushing yards).

Davante Adams has gone under 4.5 catches in five of his last seven games (29%) played with Puka Nacua in the lineup. In Week 11 versus Seattle, Adams was held to just one catch for one year on eight targets. Per NGS: Each of Riq Woolen (4 targets), Devon Witherspoon (2), and Josh Jobe (2) faced at least two targets in coverage when matched up against Adams, while his lone reception came on a man-coverage rep against Woolen. Among 41 cornerbacks to have faced at least 30 targets when playing man coverage this season, Woolen (85 yards) was the only player to allow fewer than 100 yards.

Last week, he caught just two passes for 24 yards on six targets

Note the uptick in 11 personnel from the Divisional Round. We could very much see this carry over into Conference Championship Weekend.

Although...

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, in the first matchup versus Seattle, the Rams used 11 personnel on 36% of their plays against the Seahawks, but gained only 2.7 yards per play.

Instead, the Rams relied on 11 personnel, used at their highest rate in four games (64%) for 6.3 yards per play. Rushing out of 11 personnel, the Rams earned 7.4 yards per carry, their second-most in a game this season. They also had three explosive runs, including Williams’ game-long 34-yard rush near the end of the first quarter on the Rams’ third fourth-and-1 conversion.

In the rematch (note that Davante Adams did not play), the Rams deployed 13 personnel (one running, three tight ends) on 54 of their 88 offensive plays (61.4%) against the Seahawks, their second-highest usage rate this season.

All four of the Rams’ touchdowns came from 13 personnel, with Stafford recording 221 passing yards from this formation, marking only the second NFL game in the NFL Next Gen Stats era with 200+ passing yards from this personnel grouping (Stafford did it last week, too). The Rams also generated 97 rushing yards from 13 personnel, and now hold the four highest single-game rushing totals of the season when using this personnel package.

Considering the success the Rams had with 13 personnel in the second Seahawks matchup, I'd presume they go back to it in the NFC Conference Championship game (especially with Higbee back). However, given that Adams also missed the second matchup, it might not be to that specific extent, where we get 60% or more of offensive plays from 13 personnel, as it takes Adams completely off the field.

Sean McVay admitted he called a bad game on Sunday, suggesting they didn't run 13 personnel enough.

But the fact of the matter is that the Rams have thrown two different personnel packages at the Seahawks’ defense, finding success. They can run the ball out of 11 personnel and throw efficiently out of 13 personnel.

All in all, if we call the Rams’ offense versus the Seahawks’ defense a wash, which side do you take between the Rams’ defense versus the Seahawks offense?

In a similar way that Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has stifled Kyle Shanahan’s offenses, Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula has put Darnold in the blender in the last three matchups.

And when in doubt… bet on the better quarterback as an underdog in the postseason. The Rams are 62% as underdogs ATS since 2023.

Since Week 11, Darnold has nine touchdowns and eight interceptions.

If you want to alt bet this game, Seattle +4.5 has hit at a 100% rate this season. Marry that with the under at 52.5 points. Seattle has gone under this number in 15 out 20 games this season (75%). Rams are going under this number at a 60% clip. Seahawks +4.5 paired with the total under 52.5 can be had at -120 odds.