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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 12)

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We're heading into the final Sunday before Thanksgiving, and the board is starting to tighten up as teams separate into contenders, pretenders, and full-on chaos generators. This is the appetizer slate before the holiday madness next week, and we're coming in with real momentum.

Through 11 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 33-29-1, back above the winning line after a strong 5-1 performance in Week 11. The reads are sharpening. The trends are stabilizing. And the market is finally giving us the kind of midseason inefficiencies we feast on.

Week 12 brings divisional landmines, quarterback uncertainty everywhere, overreactions baked into several spreads, and a handful of totals that look way off based on matchup data. It’s the exact type of slate where disciplined early reads matter - and where the best prop value tends to show up before limits rise.

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • Lions -12.5
  • DET-NYG over 49.5
  • Titans +13.5
  • KC-IND under 50.5
  • Saints -1.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Week 12 Betting Primer

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET


Erickson's Pick: Over 44.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Ravens have won the first half in each of their last eight games against the Jets.
  • The Ravens have won each of their six previous home games against the Jets.
  • Seven of the Jets’ last eight road games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have conceded the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • The Jets have lost 12 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • 12 of the Jets' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Baltimore is 14-14 ATS as home favorites and 11-5-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 17 (7-4-1 ATS as home favorites in 2024).
  • Baltimore is 8-4-1 ATS as home favorites since 2024 – only once have they failed to cover a spread of fewer than 6 points.
  • Baltimore is 14-7-1 toward the over as home favorite since 2023.
  • Tyrod Taylor has been great ATS as a market underdog. 22-12-3 ATS record (59%). Last starts for Tyrod came in 2023 (New York Giants), where he finished 4-0-1 ATS in those games for a 73% ROI. 1-0 ATS in his lone start this season.

Overall:

Even with a massive number, I was very much willing to lay two touchdowns with the Ravens at home because this Jets offense keeps finding ways to blow covers with turnovers and mistakes.

I fully expect Lamar and Baltimore's offense to get right back on track in a much easier matchup than last week's AFC North slugfest. Baltimore has been on the road for three straight weeks, making this Jackson's first home start since Week 3.

Now I'll be the first to admit...I don't love that Tyrod Taylor will start in Sunday’s game against the Ravens (in terms of backing the birds). Upgrade for the Jets' passing attack. Well, at least getting it off the ground.

Or the fact that the Ravens' injury report is rather lengthy. And that Baltimore's track record playing with rest disadvantage is 0-4 ATS since 2023...the second-worst mark in the league.

My confidence level has lowered since early in the week...

Think the best bet is the game total over. Ravens' home game invite the over...as do potential injuries to Kyle Hamilton/Roquan Smith.

These teams are also a combined 13-7 toward the O/U this season.

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Over 50.5 AND Lions -12.5
Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 14 of their last 15 games following a loss (13 straight)
  • 10-0 ATS after a loss since 2023.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 33 home games has been 55 points; 70% (23/33) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • 9 of the Lions’ last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 13 of the Lions' last 20 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Giants have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Giants have lost 20 of their last 24 road games.
  • New York is 7-15 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-18 straight up).
  • With Jaxson Dart, the Giants have gone 1-3 ATS in his four road starts.

Overall:

I want to buy the Lions off a loss back in the dome, where Jared Goff and this offense should absolutely shred a brutal Giants secondary, and with Jameis Winston pushing the pace on the other side, I'm looking for Detroit to cover and for this game to sail over the total in a classic Coors Field/Ford Field matchup.

The Giants’ defense is still banged up and they rank 32nd in red zone defense. Detroit's offense cooks coming off a loss.

Back at home in the dome - points are coming. Take the Lions, take the over and reap the rewards.

Jameson Williams has at least 65.5 rushing/receiving yards in four of his last 5 games. He has taken on a larger role with Dan Campbell calling the plays the last two weeks, going over 97 yards from scrimmage in both contests. 7-plus targets in back-to-back games.

Coinciding with Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties, Williams has finished as the WR19, WR2, and WR8 over the last three weeks (Next Gen Stats). Across Weeks 1-7, he averaged a 14.8% target rate, 15.8 air yards per target, and 1.4 yards per route run. Since the bye, his target rate has jumped to 18.3% while his air yards per target have dropped to 10.8, boosting his yards per route run up to 2.5. Instead of just running deep clear-out routes, Williams is now more involved in higher percentage throws. He has a league-leading 182 yards on in-breaking routes over the last three games, which get him into space and allow him to maximize his elite speed. The adjustment has boosted his efficiency, as he now leads all Lions in yards per route (2.6) since Week 9, up from 1.4 before the bye.

The Giants are allowing the 5th-most yards to WRs this season. 25th versus play action – where Jamo has been doing a TON of his damage.

Also, no tight end Sam LaPorta (placed on IR) means targets will concentrate more on Jamo and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Last year, without LaPorta in Week 11...Jamo put up 124 yards.

Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Lean Bears -2.5
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • The Steelers have lost the first half in each of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Caleb Williams is 6-2 ATS as a favorite.
  • The Bears are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite (83% ATS) since the start of last season.
  • The Bears have won 11 of their last 17 home games.
  • The Bears have won seven of their last eight games.
  • The Bears have won 8 games as favorites after a win.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Bears are 6-6 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 43 points per game (PPG).
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Five of the Steelers’ last six games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers are 5-5 toward the Over this season. All but one of their non-divisional home games this season have gone over the total.
  • The Steelers have won eight of their last 11 Sunday games as underdogs.

Overall:

With Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren and Cam Heyward all banged up, I don't have a strong stance here; if Rodgers sits and this number climbs, I'd rather take a shot on Pittsburgh's money line (value-wise) as a Mike Tomlin road underdog than lay points with a somewhat flawed Bears team, but for now, this is mostly a stay-away spot for me. Chicago plays very well at home as a favorite, but backup QB/defensive injuries make this matchup extremely tough to handicap.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mason Rudolph is 8-4-1 in his career as the starting quarterback for the Steelers. Rudolph won each of his last 3 regular-season starts in a Steelers uniform, posting a 120.4 passer rating from Weeks 16-18, 2023, to lead the Steelers to the playoffs.

Rodgers exited Week 11 against the Bengals with a wrist injury, leading to Mason Rudolph’s entry into the game. According to Next Gen Stats…Rudolph maintained a similar short-passing approach to Rodgers, who has thrown 73.4% of his passes under 10 air yards this season, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Rudolph completed all 11 of his attempts under 10 air yards for 110 net passing yards and 1 touchdown, with 117 of those yards coming after the catch, stemming from half of his total completions on the day (6 of 12) going to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. Rudolph completed just 1 of his 3 pass attempts over 10 air yards for 17 yards.

The Bears’ defense is potentially getting healthier. Well, at least their secondary. CB Kyler Gordon and CB Jaylon Johnson could return. However, the Bears’ linebackers are also banged up. The Bears will be without their three top LBs Sunday vs. the Steelers: Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell.

Colston Loveland has been targeted on 32.7% of his routes from the slot (18 of 55) this season, the highest rate among tight ends with at least 25 routes from such alignment (NGS).  Most of his production has come from the slot, where he has generated 214 of his 329 receiving yards and a touchdown. Loveland has averaged 3.9 yards per route from the slot, the most among receivers with at least 50 routes run from such alignment. The Steelers have allowed a league-high 374 receiving yards to tight ends aligned in the slot this season, with 235 of such yards coming after the catch.

I think my favorite prop is the under on Jaylen Warren’s rush attempts. He is under 14.5 in 6/9 games this season. And after he returned from injury in Week 6, he rushed just 11 times (second-lowest of the season). Warren is also 3-0 toward the under in the Steelers’ three games as underdogs.

5-star bet on the BP Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. 

Props:

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Patriots 1st Half -3.5 (Lean Patriots -7.5)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six road games.
  • Each of the Bengals’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 11 of the Bengals' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Bengals have lost 7 of their last 8 games.
  • The Bengals have conceded the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • Six of the Patriots’ last eight games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Patriots' last 10 games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bengals/Patriots rank 30th and 31st in red zone defense this season.

Overall:

I want to lock in the Patriots at anything under a touchdown, because with Jamar Chase getting suspended, this matchup becomes tougher for Cincinnati with Christian Gonzalez able to shadow Tee Higgins, New England's front limiting the run, and Joe Flacco forced to lean on ancillary pieces that cannot replace Chase.

At the time of this writing, we don’t know whether or not Joe Burrow will play (editor’s note: Burrow will not be activated from IR and Joe Flacco will get the start). Given the practice reports this week, I think he actually does play. And that means we get a better number on the Patriots. Because as good as Burrow is…we know that he hardly operates at an elite level right out of the gates. He struggles to start the year, so I would anticipate another slowish start. Take the Patriots’ first-half spread at -3.5. You cash early and avoid any Burrow late 4th-quarter magic.

Tee Higgins has scored in 9 straight home games and in five of his last six games played. Only once as Higgins fail to score a TD in Joe Flacco's five starts. With Ja'Marr Chase out...he will become a focal point of this offense. Even with Gonzalez in coverage, Higgins will have his fair chance of RZ opporunties and 50/50 balls.

Chase Brown has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in four straight games. He should see all the volume he can handle with Samaje Perine out another week. The Patriots placed DT Milton Williams (ankle) on IR - and he is a huge loss to the interior of this defense.

Hunter Henry was so close to scoring in the red zone last week, but Drake Maye's pass got tipped at the line of scrimmage before the Pats TE could snag it in the end zone. Pain. However, we will not tilt because Cincy is next. The Bengals are allowing 1.2 TDs/game to TEs (most among all teams).

Props:

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Lean Packers -6.5 and Under 41.5
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • The Vikings have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Packers have won 11 of their last 12 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Each of the Packers’ last four home games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers have won the first half in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 7 of their last 15 games as favorites.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 21-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-11 ATS. Green Bay is 5-15 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
  • The Vikings' team total is 16.5 points.
  • Six of the Vikings' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line. Minnesota is 3-0 toward the over on the road this season.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread or win outright as an underdog following a loss in six of their last seven games (also lost the first half).
  • All but 13 of the Vikings’ last 42 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (79%).
  • The Packers are 0-4-1 O/U at home this season.
  • They are 4-9-1 O/U since last season at home.
  • Since 2023, the Packers are 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.
  • 4 of the 5 last games between the Packers/Vikings have gone OVER the total. The only under? When the total closed at 41.5 points.
  • The Vikings have the 4th best red-zone defense

Overall:

My early lean is toward the under, as the Packers' defense has been far tougher at home, the Packers have more offensive injuries and I don't trust J.J. McCarthy to take this Vikings offense into Lambeau and hang a big number outdoors.

The Packers haven't allowed more than 18 points at home this season.

And by default - it means I like the Packers to also cover here. They almost feel overdue to cover, given how poor ATS (3-7) they have been this season. It's only 6.5 points at home...against a very erratic second-year QB.

DE Jonathan Greenard is also most likely returning for the Vikings.

The Packers defense might cover this spread on its own. Still prefer the under over everything else, but would lean Pack if forced to pick a side. They should have covered last week versus Big Blue had it not been for missed turnover opportunities.

C Ryan Kelly (concussion) is set to return to the lineup for the Vikings. Christian Darrisaw also practiced in full. The Vikings’ offensive line looks like it will be starting its strongest five for the first time in a while.

With Minnesota getting OL pieces back - I think they might to run the ball more with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Worked last week for New York versus the Pack's run defense - that won't have DT Karl Brooks. Quay Walker is also out up along with Nate Hobbs. Walker leads the Packers in tackles.

Josh Jacobs is iffy as well as a game-time decision.

Per Next Gen Stats…Packers’ ball-carriers have been stuffed for a loss or no gain on just 13.3% of their designed carries this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL, more often than only the Chiefs (12.5%).

Though they have often avoided negative yardage, Packers’ ball-carriers have recorded a 9.6% explosive run rate on designed carries, a mark that ranks below league average (10.5%) and below their 4th-ranked rate of 13.1% from a season ago.  The Vikings defense has stuffed opposing rushers on 22.9% of designed carries, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

The Packers defense has allowed a 10.3% explosive play rate on called pass plays this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL, lower than only the Broncos (9.6%). This low figure is due in part to their ability to limit yards after the catch, as they have allowed a league-low 4.2 yards after the catch per reception. They have allowed a league-low 7 explosive gains (15+ yards) on receptions caught short of the sticks, making them the only defense to have allowed fewer than 10.

Aaron Jones anytime TD. He's going to score (if the Vikings score at all). Revenge game! In all seriousness, I expect Kevin O’Connell to do whatever it takes to get Jones in the end zone. Last year versus GB, Jones totaled 6 RZ opportunities, but he didn’t score.

Given the boost for Minnesota’s OL, we should see a healthy dose of Jones through all facets of the offensive game plan. Jones has at least three receptions in three of his four games played with JJ McCarthy. He also caught 4 balls versus GB in both games last season against them. GB is allowing the 8th-most receptions to RBs this season.

Props: 

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Under 50.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 home games against AFC opponents.
  • The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last seven road games against AFC opponents.
  • Each of the Chiefs’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • KC has the highest under-hit rate at 71% at home since 2023.
  • KC is 7-3 toward the under this season.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last four home games.
  • KC has won 15 straight as home favorites.
  • The Colts are just 1-5 ATS since 2023 with a rest advantage. 4-1-1 toward the over.
  • 11 of the Colts' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I expect the Chiefs to steady the ship at home rather than drop another one, but with Daniel Jones reverting to his turnover-prone Giants form and Kansas City leaning on its defense, I'm actually more interested in the under on a bloated total than I am in laying a field goal-plus with Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead.

Per Next Gen Stats...Daniel Jones has committed 5 turnovers (2 interceptions, 3 fumbles) over the Colts’ last two games.

In those two games, Jones has been sacked on 35.3% of his pressured dropbacks. Through the first 8 weeks of the season, Jones was sacked on a league-low 9.7% of his pressured dropbacks.

The Colts secondary is going to be closer to full strength between Sauce Gardner, Jaylon Jones, Kenny Moore and Charvarius Ward.

One QB has hit over 34.5 pass attempts vs KC this season.

When using play action this season, Daniel Jones has completed over 70% of his pass attempts, averaging the 5th-most yards per attempt (9.2) – via Next Gen Stats.

Tyler Warren has recorded the 2nd-most receptions on play action (25), while Michael Pittman Jr. has recorded the 4th-most (20). The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 81.2% completion percentage against play action this season, as well as the 2nd-most yards per attempt (11.0). KC ranks 32nd in EPA/play action attempt faced this season.

The only games we have seen go for over 50 points in KC since the start of last season have been Ravens, Bills, Bucs in OT, and Joe Burrow-led Bengals.

Mahomes has faced a Lou Anarumo defense 7 times in his career – 2-5 towards the O/U.

Seattle Seahawks vs Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Titans +13.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last nine home games.
  • Seattle is 5-0 ATS as road underdogs.
  • The Seahawks are 11-2 SU on the road since the start of 2024
  • The Seahawks have won the first half in each of their last seven games as road favorites.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Seahawks have won 10 of their last 11 road games
  • However, Seattle is just 3-2-1 as a road favorite since 2024 ATS.
  • Four of the Seahawks' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 5 of the Titans’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 5 of the Titans' last six home games as underdogs has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 4-1 toward the over at home this season
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.

Overall:

Normally, Seattle is an auto-click for me on the road, but with their offensive line piling up injuries and this number ballooning into double digits, I'm oddly drawn toward taking Tennessee as a big home dog to sneak in the back door, while still expecting the Seahawks to escape with the win.

Grey Zabel (guard) is a game-time decision. Their center Jalen Sundell got hurt two weeks ago.  Kenneth Walker is now banged up. Bad offensive lines don't travel. Bad matchup for the interior against guys like T'Vondre Sweat and Jeffery Simmons.

All but two of the road point spreads Seattle has played in over the last two years have been 3.5 points or fewer.

You usually get value on them in close, tight spreads on the road. Not the case here.

Also, can't help but think the football regression gods will come for the Seahawks. How they covered (and almost won) despite 4 Sam Darnold interceptions last week is beyond me.

Cam Ward has covered two straight at home since they fired Brian Callahan.

Gunnar Helm has at least two receptions in any game this season where he has run more than 10 routes (7/10). The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most catches to TEs this season.

Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Props
Confidence:★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • The Cardinals are 3-2 ATS with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB.
  • All but three games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-5 record in close games).
  • The road team has covered the spread in nine of the Cardinals’ last 10 games.
  • The Jaguars have lost each of their last nine games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 16 road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 13-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (10-8 ATS).
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
  • Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Cardinals have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five home games against AFC opponents.

Overall:

There's just too much volatility on both sides for me to feel good about an early position, with the Jaguars swinging wildly week to week and the Cardinals living off insane pass volume that makes them a classic backdoor-cover team, so this is a matchup I'm scratching off my card for now.

Joe took the Cardinals +2.5 in this Week 12’s Best Bet Show…but he’s much braver than I am.

“Even with Jacksonville volatility, Arizona is live here at home in a weird out-of-conference spot. The Cardinals throw a ton, they've shown they can push pace, and the Jaguars still feel like a weekly coin flip on both sides of the ball. Getting points with Arizona in their building, coming off a pass-heavy breakout, makes sense - especially if they turn this into a high-variance game where a late score swings it. It's a "take the home dog in a messy matchup" play.”

Bold move, Cotton, let’s see how it plays out. I’ll instead take my favorite player prop for the week.

I originally had a prop pick for Brian Thomas Jr but he’s out another week. The replacement prop is on rookie RB Bhayshul Tuten. He looked to be taking over the backfield last week before he hurt his ankle. But he is off the injury report, while Travis Etienne might actually be more banged up (shoulder) after spending time in the non-contact jersey this week.

Tuten has exceeded his rushing prop in 3 of his last four games. Arizona has allowed 94-plus rushing yards in five straight games. TUGBOAT SZN.

Per Next Gen Stats…Tuten led the way last week with 74 yards on 15 carries, recording career highs in missed tackles forced (7), yards after contact (67), and yards after missed tackles (26). Etienne added 73 yards on the ground, forcing six missed tackles and totaling 52 yards after contact. The Cardinals’ defense has posted a 27.1% missed tackle rate against designed runs this season, the 5th-highest in the league.

Props:

Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Browns +4
Confidence:★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Browns have lost each of their last 13 road games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 10 straight road games.
  • The Browns have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 road games.
  • Each of the Browns’ last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games.
  • 11 of the Browns’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 0-5 ATS on the road this season.
  • The Browns are 3-13-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (2-10 ATS since 2024).
  • The Browns are 16-7 toward the OVER on the road since 2023 (No.1 among all teams).
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Browns.
  • Eleven of the Raiders' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2023 (7-3 SU)

Overall:

I wanted to grab the Browns early plus the points and on the money line because I presumed once Shedeur Sanders was officially announced the starter and the Raiders likely stumbled again in prime time (which they did), I expected this line to move HEAVY toward Cleveland. Not been the case…as the Browns are still catching more than a FG on the road.

But regardless of how the rookie QB fares in his first NFL road start….I trust the Browns' defense to carry them in an ugly, low-total game. They are the only elite unit taking the field in Las Vegas on Sunday. Myles Garrett might be worth more points ATS than either team’s QB. And Jim Schwartz versus Chip Kelly is no contest when it comes to coordinators going head-to-head.

Browns +3.5 was the final leg in our 3-leg “best-bet” parlay this week, provided by YouTube commenter, RocDitty. Let’s rock, baby. Go Brownies.

Speaking of Sheduer…this completion prop is just too low for a starting NFL QB. I get last week was bad…but if he completes that TD late…I feel that the narrative surrounding his entering his first start is completely different. Ergo, we can take advantage of suppressed lines.

Dillon Gabriel went 4/5 over 15.5 completions in his starts this season. The lowly Jets’ passing game is averaging 17.2 completions per game this season. The Raiders are allowing 22.3 completions per game. Only QB has fallen short of 16 completions versus the Raiders. Sanders going OVER 15.5 completions is a 5-star bet on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet this week. Legendary.

Props:

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET 

Erickson's Pick: Dallas +3.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Eagles have been the first to 15 points in each of their last 10 road games.
  • The Eagles have scored first in each of their last eight road games against NFC opponents.
  • The Eagles have won 12 of their last 13 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last six games against reigning Super Bowl champions.
  • Six of the Cowboys’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in four straight following a win (also lost 4 straight up).
  • Dallas is 10-5 ATS in the division since 2023.
  • The Eagles are 11-17-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 19-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (72%).

Overall:

I'm leaning toward taking Dallas with the points at home in Jerry World, because as good as the Eagles' defense has been, the Cowboys have shown they can score on elite units. I expected the market to get even more bullish on Dallas after another strong national-TV performance, and that is exactly how this line has moved (opened Dallas +4.5). Even so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cowboys win outright. This defense is vastly improved with all their recent personnel additions. And Philly’s offense without Lane Johnson? Well..

Yikes. Dallas doesn’t fear the Eagles or any divisional foe, so I like them catching points at home.

Philly’s offense has been MIA the last two weeks – 31st in success rate – after being a below-average offense for most of the season (24% in success rate).

Joe’s upset special this week on the Week 12 Best Bets show is the Cowboys beating Philly outright.

“I'm totally on board with Dallas as the upset because the Eagles’ offense has looked broken for two straight weeks. They've scored just 26 points total in their last two games, and now they walk into Jerry World, where Dallas has been a 30-plus point machine at home (29.6 PPG). This Cowboys defense is not the same unit Philly faced in Week 1 - they're healthier, more settled, and playing with more edge right now. In a divisional game where Dallas needs to make a statement, I think they're live to win outright.”

HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS?

As for props, I somehow found an under in a game with a high total.

Jake Ferguson has gone under 30.5 yards in 4/7 games this season with CeeDee Lamb, including three of the last four games. Also, 0-3 versus the Eagles at 30.5 yards in the last three H2H matchups. The Eagles are allowing fewer than 30 yards per game to TEs.

Props:

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Saints -1.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Saints have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have won each of their last six home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Each of the Saints’ last six games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games after coming off overtime.
  • Each of the Falcons’ last two games has gone to overtime.
  • The underdogs have won four of the Falcons' last six games.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 road games.
  • The Falcons on the road since the start of 2023: 8-12-1 ATS. 3-2 ATS this season.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight home games.
  • Seven of the Saints' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Saints are 1-4 O/U at home this season (38 PPG)
  • The Saints have covered three straight games versus the Falcons and have won the last three games at home against the Falcons by at least a field goal.

Overall:

I'm siding with the Saints at home, where I think an underrated defense, a post-bye Kellen Moore setup, and Tyler Shough's first home start give New Orleans a real edge against a Falcons team that feels like a mess. I am not surprised to have seen this line flip with the Saints closing as favorites.

Also, keep in mind that rookie QBs at home. Cash cows.

Since the start of the 2020 season (according to VSIN), rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).

This season:

  • Cam Ward: 2-3 (2-0 last two games)
  • Jaxson Dart: 2-1
  • Dillon Gabriel: 2-0 (only one to be favored)

6-4 ATS. 3-1 in divisional contests.

And to be honest, the Saints' real-life defense isn't even that bad. Eleventh in fewest yards allowed per game (under 200 passing yards per game). Nineteenth in total defensive DVOA.

Chris Lindstrom is dealing with a foot injury, but is expected to return. Matthew Bergerson should also come back. But the Falcons OL is banged up - and that spells trouble for the immobile Kirk Cousins.

Falcons LB Divine Deablo (forearm) was designated to return from injured reserve and had his 21-day practice window open. He will return for the Dirty Birds after practicing this week. Also, the Falcons will get back to other CBs....Dee Alford, Mike Hughes and safety Xavier Watts. Not great for the Saints offense, as this projects to be a lower-scoring game.

But DL Zach Harrison is out. He has been a Top-10 interior pass rusher this season.

Slot CB Billy Bowman is also out with an Achilles injury. That will put Alford back in the slot...PFF's 16th-lowest graded CB this season. Kellen Moore should be able to expose that weakness with specific slot players on offense, such as Juwan Johnson, Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele.

The Saints should be relatively healthy overall coming off a bye week.

The Falcons are 0-3 ATS in the division this season and 3-6 ATS in the division in the Raheem Morris era (0-5 in five straight NFC games ATS. Bet against him in division games, and you tend to come out profitable.

Taysom Hill has been talked up by both the Saints HC and OC this week. In a game where the Saints could actually dictate pace and see multiple red-zone opportunities. I love his anytime TD odds. Coming off season-highs in terms of usage before the Saints' bye week. Scored twice versus the Falcons last season.

Props:

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