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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 14)

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We're heading into the heart of December football, and the Week 14 Sunday slate delivers a monster lineup with playoff implications everywhere you look. The Bills-Bengals shootout, and a divisional showdown between the Jaguars and Colts, headline a day packed with tight lines and live-betting opportunities.

As always, one of the biggest edges on the board continues to be the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, which is still smashing through 13 weeks:

  • 57% Win Rate
  • +94.91 Units
  • 8.4% ROI

If you're hunting for correlated plays, mispriced yardage props, or red-zone usage tells, the Cheat Sheet has been printing. Expect several matchups - including Rams-Cardinals, Dolphins-Jets, and Commanders-Vikings - to offer strong prop value once those markets open.

Strap in. This is where playoff races tighten, lines sharpen - and bettors can find real edges before the books adjust.

Through 13 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 38-33-1, STILL above the winning line after a positive 3-2 performance in Week 13.

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • Browns -3.5
  • CIN- BUF over 53
  • Jets +3
  • Jags +2.5
  • CHI-GB under 44.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

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Week 14 Betting Primer

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Erickson's Pick: Under 44.5

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The underdogs have won six of the Falcons' last eight games.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Falcons on the road since the start of 2023: 9-13-1 ATS. 4-3 ATS this season.
  • Each of the Falcons’ last eight home games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons are 11-9 as home favorites on the ML.
  • As home favorites since 2023: 6-13 ATS (32%).
  • The Falcons are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home games as underdogs. They are underdogs at home for just the third time since 2024. (1-1 ATS).
  • Six of the Falcons’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Seahawks have won each of their last 12 games as road favorites. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 appearances on the road versus the NFC South
  • The Seahawks have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five road games against the Falcons.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Seahawks are 11-2 SU on the road since the start of 2024
  • The Seahawks have won the first half in each of their last seven games as road favorites.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Seahawks have won 11 of their last 12 road games
  • However, Seattle is just 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
  • Five of the Seahawks’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line

Overall:

Seattle rolls into Atlanta as a big road favorite, and given how well they have fared on the road, it seems as if we can trust the Seahawks laying nearly a touchdown.

Seattle's defense has been giving shaky quarterbacks real problems.

Admittedly, Kirk Cousins at home behind this Atlanta offense is a big step up in difficulty from the Minnesota Vikings' mess they just shredded, but it’s still a matchup Seattle should control. The Falcons just lost to the Jets and feel extremely fragile, especially with Drake London out of the mix, leaving a lot on Bijan Robinson and Cousins to carry the Falcons' odds of winning. Overall, the early read was Seahawks or nothing, even at a hefty number. But keep this in mind. All but two of the road point spreads Seattle has played in over the last two years have been 3.5 points or fewer. You usually get value on them in close, tight spreads on the road. Not the case here.

Atlanta is basically only backable as a home underdog, and Darnold's recent struggles under pressure are concerning for those looking to back the road team. He is also dealing with an ankle injury that could limit his mobility this week.

Again, initially my lean was Seattle, but I think I like the game totally going under. 44.5 points is a fine number with value toward the under.

But easy to see both offenses struggling to some extent.

Per Next Gen Stats...In Week 13 against the Jets, Kirk Cousins completed 20 of 24 passes under 10 air yards for 215 yards and a touchdown.

On throws of 10+ air yards, he went just 1 of 7 for 19 yards. Cousins has completed just 10 of 28 (35.7%) downfield passes, which would be the lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. The Seahawks have allowed a league-low 49.4 passer rating on downfield passes this season, intercepting 11 of such passes (2nd-most).

The Falcons' defense ranks 7th in pressure rate this season (2nd-highest blitz rate). Given how the Falcons' home games have trended UNDER, that's the bet I like most.

Atlanta has substantially dialed back its passing volume to hide Cousins. Their pass rate over expectation was -10% from Weeks 12-13. In Week 8 (Cousins’ other start), it was -13%. He has not attempted 34 passes in any game this season.

5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet!

Also worth noting that DL David Onyemata and DT Brandon Dorlus are injured. We could see the Seahawks establish a decent run game performance. Onyemata is a top-10 run-stopper this season among DL players.

Props:

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

Erickson's Pick: Over 52.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 16 of their previous 25 games with their starters playing. In six of 12 games this season, they have scored 30-plus.
  • The Bills have won each of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Bengals have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last six games as road underdogs.
  • Each of the last five games between the Bengals and Bills has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Buffalo is 0-5 ATS as favorites after a win.
  • Fifteen of the Bills’ last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last 12 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

With Joe Burrow back and looking functional in his Thanksgiving return, this matchup was quickly circled as "Over City." The Bills' defensive performance last week came against a broken Pittsburgh offense, so there's skepticism about how much of that is real improvement versus opponent-driven. Burrow with another game under his belt and Tee Higgins back into the fold gives Cincinnati the firepower to push this into a high-scoring back-and-forth game. Rather than sweating a side, I lean strongly toward attacking the total and betting on points.

The Bills’ defense has more injuries (Terrel Bernard, Joey Bosa), suggesting a shootout is all but on deck. Buffalo might get some offensive pieces back as well, between Spencer Brown, Dalton Kincaid, and Dion Dawkins; they will have a chance to play in Week 14 (Dawkins already confirmed as in for the game).

And aside from some flurries in Upstate New York...the weather should not play a critical factor in this matchup.

Each of the last five games between the Bengals and Bills has gone UNDER the total points line. Not a signal for a 6th straight under....but rather that regression is DUE to hit massively.

Chase Brown stayed hot last week with 15 carries for 78 yards and seven catches for 35 yards. Now has 6 straight games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage. The Bills are allowing over 130 yards per game to opposing RBs (4th-most rushing yards).

5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week!

Props:

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Erickson's Pick: Browns -3.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Browns have scored first in 18 of their last 19 games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Four of the Browns’ last five games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns boast the best record ATS at home (14-8, 64%).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in 12 of their last 19 home games.
  • The Browns are 6-7 over their last 13 games as home underdogs (SU).
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 17-5 for the under at home.

Overall:

This total opened in the mid-30s for a reason: both offenses are hard to trust, and Cleveland in early December can get ugly in a hurry. You've got Cam Ward on the road against an aggressive Browns front and Shedeur Sanders still finding his footing as a starter for Cleveland, which makes it tough to feel strongly about either side. Conceptually, this has "Close Your Eyes Special" vibes if the line balloons toward a full touchdown for the Browns and the market overreacts to their defense versus Tennessee's offensive issues. For now, though, the early stance was mostly to scratch this game off unless the number moves significantly and creates value on the Titans catching a bigger spread.

That hasn't been the case, with the Browns laying just 3.5-4 points to the lowly Titans. The Titans have covered +3.5 just twice this season. Going RIGHT BACK to the Brownies even after they broke me in Week 13.

The Browns played well against the 49ers, aside from special-teams miscues that cost them the chance to cover the spread.  The 49ers' 3 TD drives started at the Browns' 16, 32, and 18-yard lines. Woof. 4/5 scoring drives began in the Browns' territory.

The Titans are also playing on the road for the first time since Week 8. Trust the process.

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings

Erickson's Pick: Vikings -1.5

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • In each of the Commanders’ last nine games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last seven games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Vikings’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Vikings' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings have won six of their last 10 home games.
  • All but 15 of the Vikings’ last 43 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (77%).
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread or win outright as an underdog following a loss in eight of their last nine games (also lost the first half).
  • Each of the Commanders’ last two games has gone to overtime.
  • Marcus Mariota is 2-4 ATS this season - but 4-2 toward the over. Covered in two of his home starts.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 11-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 27-7 toward the OVER.

Overall:

Minnesota looks like a team circling the drain, while Washington at least showed they can hang with a legit Denver defense in prime time. Even with J.J. McCarthy back, the Vikings' offense has been inconsistent.

The Commanders are live underdogs here, with the early lean toward taking Washington on the moneyline plus the small spread, then pairing it with the under. Betting the total lets you fade both Vikings quarterbacks and Marcus Mariota on the road in a potentially sloppy, lower-scoring game.

That all being said, it appears McCarthy will start for Minnesota, while Jayden Daniels is also set to return to action.

I can’t help but think the Commanders also might lay a dud here, coming off an emotional loss in OT to the Broncos. They've lost back-to-back OT games. However, a Daniels return (similar to Joe Burrow’s return) could help mitigate an overtime hangover.

Everybody also wants to BURY the Vikings after back-to-back road duds. So after liking the Commanders earlier in the week, I think I am pivoting to the Vikings at home.

Via Next Gen Stats...

The Vikings defense has blitzed on a league-high 49.6% of opposing dropbacks this season, at least 8% more often than any other team. Since their Week 6 bye, they've blitzed on 58.0% of dropbacks, a rate at least 20% higher than any other team. Jayden Daniels has completed just 47.3% of such passes, the lowest mark in the league.

Justin Jefferson hit rock bottom with Max Brosmer. Just two catches for four yards (20% target share and 51 incomplete air yards). The hope is that with JJ McCarthy returning from concussion protocol, the Vikings’ offensive weapons can take advantage of matchups versus the Commanders. Washington is allowing the 5th-most yards to WRs this season.

Jefferson is 7-4 toward the over as an underdog. Also, 4/5 toward the OVER at home this season.

Props:

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Erickson's Pick: Jets ML (Jets +2.5)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The home team has won seven of the last eight games between the Dolphins and Jets.
  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Dolphins have won the first quarter in each of their last five games against the Jets.
  • The Jets have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Jets are 0-4 ATS as underdogs versus the AFC East.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record (74%).
  • Miami is 15-10 ATS as a favorite since 2023 (60%).
  • Tyrod Taylor has been great ATS as a market underdog. 24-12-3 ATS record (61%). Last starts for Tyrod came in 2023 (New York Giants), where he finished 4-0-1 ATS in those games for a 73% ROI. 3-0 ATS in his three starts this season.
  • Thirteen of the Jets' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have lost 13 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have lost five of their last six road games.
  • The Dolphins have lost six of their last seven road games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games as road underdogs.
  • Twelve of the Dolphins' last 16 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

This spot was immediately flagged as a classic "bet against Tua outdoors in December" game. The Jets are coming off an upset win and now get Miami in cold weather, where the Dolphins' track-meet offense tends to be less reliable. The last time we saw Miami play on the road outdoors this season... they got SMOKED by the Browns, 31-6.

Even with Miami's defense playing better, there's enough distrust in Tua on the road in this environment to justify a swing on New York. The takeaway: Jets moneyline (+130) for a second straight week as the preferred way to attack the matchup rather than dealing with a short spread.

Aaron Glenn is following the footsteps of his mentor, Dan Campbell, who went on an ATS tear during the second half of his first season as HC for the Detroit Lions.

This game is a rematch of Week 4, when Miami won 27-21. The Jets out-gained the Dolphins but lost because they had three fumbles - 2 of which resulted in Miami touchdowns.

The Jets still don't have a defensive interception this season.

Per Next Gen Stats...Tua Tagovailoa has faced zone coverage on 84.6% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate faced by any quarterback since at least 2018.

He has averaged 6.9 yards per attempt versus zone, 7th-lowest this season, and all 14 of his interceptions have come against zone. Against man coverage, however, he has recorded the 5th-highest completion rate (62.3%) and thrown eight touchdowns without an interception. The Jets have played zone coverage on 62.1% of dropbacks this season, the 5th-lowest in the NFL. In their Week 4 meeting, they played man coverage 44.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate Tagovailoa has faced this season by nearly 15 percentage points (next highest: 29.6% in Week 1 vs. the Colts). He finished that game with two touchdowns with no interceptions.

The Jets have not gone away from their man coverage scheme since the Sauce Gardner trade in the aggregate, but they have shown a willingness to throw a change-up. In Weeks 11 and 12, they played man coverage on just 21% of their coverage dropbacks.

They played a 19% man coverage rate in Week 11, 24% in Week 12. (21% man coverage rate). It's 40% in every other game they have played this season.

Tua is plus money to be intercepted. He has been picked off in five of his last nine road games. 5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week. Tua has played in New York twice I his career, later in the season. Threw picks in both games (3 total). From December on, the Dolphins QB has 28 passing TDs and 21 interceptions. Last time he played outdoors in December, Miami lost 56-19, and he threw two picks. Lost to KC 7-26 and threw another pick.

Safety Tony Adams likely won't play, and Andre Cisco is already on IR.

Darren Waller led the team in receiving yards (47) on two catches and three targets (1 RZ target and 23% of the air yards). He ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks - typical of a player coming off IR. Should ramp up similar to how we saw him start the season. In the first matchup versus the Jets earlier this season, he scored twice (finished as TE2 overall on the week). NY ranks 31st in DVOA vs TEs this season (Bengals are 31st). Coach Mike McDaniel also said they were conservative with him in his first game back.

Props:

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Erickson's Pick: Saints +8.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last 12 games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Buccaneers have lost four of their last six games.
  • Six of the Buccaneers’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games.
  • The Saints have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last 11 games.
  • Each of the Saints’ last eight games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Saints’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games against the Buccaneers.
  • The Saints have covered as road underdogs in the NFC South in eight straight games.
  • The Saints have won the first half in each of their last six road games against the Buccaneers.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Saints have lost 14 of their last 15 games as underdogs.

Overall:

The Bucs got a jolt with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin stepping up last week, but laying more than a touchdown with Baker Mayfield as a big home favorite is uncomfortable. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games.

Tampa Bay's defense continues to be vulnerable through the air, and the Saints have shown they're willing to sling it 40-50 times, which opens up plenty of backdoor-cover scenarios (exactly what happened last week). Division games with this kind of spread tend to tighten late, especially with New Orleans in full-blown pass mode. The early lean was Saints +7.5, trusting volume and garbage-time passing to keep them within the number. With the number shifting to +8.5...I am very much on the Saints' side with the points. Although I don't love it...given the track record of rookie QBs covering on the road compared to at home. Although Tyler Shough has knocked the trend, going 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, covering well within +8.5 points.

It's noteworthy that OT Tristan Wirfs is not expected to play due to an oblique injury.

Bucky Irving was thrown right back into the mix after his long absence (54% snaps). 17 carries for 61 yards (long of 13) with 2 catches for 20 yards (long of 20 yards). He also scored from the 1-yard line, but it came back on a holding call. No other Bucs' RB had more than two carries. Rachaad White still drew three targets, but otherwise, this was completely back to "Bell Cow" Bucky. White did catch a 15-yard TD, but it was called back on OPI.

Nothing but smooth sailing for Irving after just five games played so far in 2025. Guy has fresh legs. The Saints are allowing the 4th-most rushing yards per game to RBs (110.8/game).

Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Erickson's Pick: Jaguars ML (+110)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Jaguars have won each of their last nine games against the Colts at EverBank Stadium.
  • The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS at home this season (80% ATS).
  • The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014.
  • The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 10 games.
  • Each of the last five games between the Colts and Jaguars has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Jags have covered 5 straight versus Indy as home underdogs
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 15-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (12-8 ATS).
  • They are 4-2-1 ATS as a home underdog (2-5 SU) since 2024.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games against AFC South opponents.
  • Four of the Colts' last five games against AFC South opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 11 of the Colts' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Colts, as favorites, are 8-7 ATS since the start of 2024.
  • The Colts are 17-4 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
    • Just 3-4 ATS as a road favorite (1-1 this season).
  • Six of the Colts’ last eight games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Colts have won 6 of their last 7 games following a loss.
  • The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven games at EverBank Stadium against teams with winning records.

Overall:

Jacksonville, as a short home underdog, was one of the more surprising early lines that Joe and I discussed on Monday's show. Both teams sit at 8-4, but the Colts have been exposed a bit recently with Daniel Jones trailing off (The Colts losing three of their last four games) and the defense losing pieces like star CB Sauce Gardner. Jones doesn't have the same mobility due to his leg injury, and the Jaguars SELL OUT to stop the run, the highest pass rate faced this season. They will make Jones have to beat them...and that's a recipe for success regarding the home team.

Per Next Gen Stats...Daniel Jones, who played through a fractured fibula in Week 13 against the Texans, showed indications that his mobility may have been affected, headlined by his first career game (since 2019) with zero scrambles. He traveled 375.9 yards, his fewest in any game he has played from start to finish, and over 200 yards fewer than his season average entering Week 13 (589.5 yards). Jones reached a top speed of just 10.43 mph, five miles per hour slower than his previous season low (15.46 mph) and the first game of his career not reaching at least 14.0 mph.

The Jaguars have used Cover 6 on 19.8% of opponents’ dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Eagles (22.5%).

When deploying Cover 6, Jacksonville has allowed a 65.9% completion percentage (13th-lowest) and 6.5 yards per attempt (10th-fewest). Matchup: Daniel Jones has struggled against Cover 6 this season, completing just 58.3% of his passes (4th-lowest) while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt (11th-fewest).

Historically, Indianapolis hasn't won in Jacksonville since 2014, and while that kind of long-term trend can be overstated, it does underscore how tough this trip tends to be for them.

Given the situation and motivational edge, the early recommendation was the Jaguars’ moneyline at plus odds, expecting this to be a statement win and a potential pivot point in the AFC South race.

The Jags are 2-1 straight up as a home underdog this season, beating the Chiefs/Chargers in FG spreads. They lost to Seattle by 8 points.

Brenton Strange has been targeted on 22.8% of his routes against zone coverage this season (29 of 127), the highest rate among non-backfield Jaguars pass catchers.

Strange has gained 315 of his 342 total receiving yards against zone coverage this season. His 10.9 yards per target against zone ranks 2nd-most among tight ends with at least 25 targets. Strange has 45-plus yards in all but one of his healthy games played this season (6/7). The Colts are allowing the second-most yards to TEs this season (72.1 per game).

Considering starting left tackle, Walker Little, is likely going to miss this game with a concussion...short-quick passes seem most likely on the table as the Jags' offensive plan of attack.

Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Erickson's Pick: Ravens -6

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Ravens have won each of their last 16 games as favorites following a division loss.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • Nine of the last 10 games between the Steelers and Ravens have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Ravens have lost the first half in each of their last four games.
  • In each of the Ravens’ last four games as home favorites, their opponents have scored first.
  • Baltimore is 14-16 ATS as home favorites and 11-7-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 19 (7-6-1 ATS as home favorites in 2024).
  • Baltimore is 8-6-1 ATS as home favorites since 2024 – only once have they failed to cover a spread of fewer than 6 points.
  • Baltimore is 14-9-1 toward the over as a home favorite since 2023.
  • The Ravens have won each of their last 15 of 16 home games against AFC opponents on a losing streak.
  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between AFC North teams.
  • The Steelers are 6-6 toward the Over this season. All but two of their non-divisional home games this season have gone over the total.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road games against teams that held a winning record.

Overall:

AFC North games are always nasty, and this one is no exception. Baltimore hasn't looked like an untouchable juggernaut, while Pittsburgh is clearly broken in some ways, with Aaron Rodgers' leadership and the broader locker room vibes coming into question. This team, Mike Tomlin, is the definition of "reeling."

In a vacuum, the "smart" play in this division is usually grabbing the points with the dog and expecting a one-score game decided late. Holding your nose and taking the Steelers +6, with the expectation that Baltimore probably wins but Pittsburgh hangs around just enough to cover in a game that doesn't feel good to bet from either side.

But given the number has settled on Steelers +6...I feel much less warm and fuzzy about backing the underdog. Pittsburgh has been bad on the road, and they have a laundry list of injuries. Kyle Dugger, Patrick Queen, Derrick Harmon, Aaron Rodgers, Broderick Jones, Calvin Anderson...

The Ravens are coming off the mini-bye after playing on Thanksgiving - and they have been bad when playing with a rest disadvantage this season (0-3 ATS). The Steelers thrive with a rest advantage, but that's not the case here.

Baltimore is 2-0 ATS this season with a rest advantage.

Somebody has to bounce back here...and my lean is on the Ravens (especially if you can get it at -5.5).

After all...it's Derrick Henry versus a defense that ranks 5th-worst in yards allowed this season (100-plus rushing yards allowed per game to RBs). Henry has averaged 108.4 rushing yards per game in December and January in his career. That is the highest rushing yards per game average by any player to play at least 25 career games in December and January since 1970 (Next Gen Stats). The Steelers’ defense is trash versus the run. They couldn't stop anything the Bills did on the ground (despite running the same 2 plays over and over again). James Cook rushed for 144 yards on 32 carries.

Henry has also averaged 4.8 yards per carry (3.67 yards after contact per attempt) since Jackson returned in Week 9 - averaging 84 rushing yards per game.

In Henry's last two games at home versus Pittsburgh, he rushed for over 160 yards.

Props:

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Erickson's Pick: Raiders +7.5

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 10 games against AFC West opponents.
  • Each of the Broncos’ last six games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have won the first half in nine of their last 10 home games against the Broncos.
  • 12 of the Raiders' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Raiders’ last 10 road games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs (2-6 in their last eight games).
  • Ten of the Broncos’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last 9 games.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos have won 9 consecutive games, with their last four wins by a combined 10 points. That is tied for the smallest margin of victory by any team in a 4-game win streak in NFL history, tied with the 2009 Colts, who went on to win the Super Bowl that season.
  • Denver is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. 2-6 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025.

Overall:

Denver's defense is legit and continues to be the backbone of their success, but laying a full touchdown with Bo Nix on the road against a division rival is asking a lot. I've lost a lot of bets on Denver this season because they have not been covering these larger spreads.

We just saw these teams play in an ugly, low-scoring slog on Thursday night, and nothing about either offense suggests a sudden explosion of efficiency. On the early lookahead show...Joe's instinct was to trust the Broncos to handle business and cover, while I pushed back from a spread perspective, preferring the Raiders +7.5 at home as divisional underdogs. I loved them back as underdogs at Denver

Overall, the early takeaway is that Denver is more likely to win than cover, and if you're getting involved, grabbing the points with Las Vegas in another grindy game makes sense. Vegas is 2-1 as a home underdog this year (failing to cover versus Dallas) - and the Broncos are coming off an emotional OT victory in prime time.

10 of the Broncos’ 12 games this season have been decided by one score. The Raiders also run a ton of zone coverage, which Bo Nix has struggled against this season (including the first matchup versus LV) - the 12th-lowest yards per dropback this year when facing zone.

DT D.J. Jones also might miss this game for the Broncos...which could provide a slight edge for the Raiders' run game to get off the ground. DL Zach Allen is also on the injury report with a calf injury (DNP on Thursday).

Courtland Sutton scored late in the first half on a terrific throw by Nix...finishing 5-62 on six targets. Last six games for Sutton - four games with 59-plus receiving yards.

Pat Bryant also drew eight targets, catching three for 42. Notable that he saw more volume in the first game post bye week.

Troy Franklin regressed to WR3 with 2-21 on three targets. Bryant ran more routes than Franklin.

The rookie WR hit a season-high in route participation (76%). Dominated the air yards (36%). Has back-to-back games with a 15% or higher target share (6-plus targets). 40-plus yards in four of the last five games.

I was concerned that Franklin would maintain WR1 usage despite poor efficiency. And that came true versus the Commanders. Not only did Sutton out-target him, but so did Bryant.

With Denver's tough playoff schedule (GB, JAX, KC), Franklin will be a tough click. He's scored four TDs in the last six games-8-plus targets in five of six but just two games with more than 40 receiving yards. A red flag that suggests targets might go elsewhere.

And only once this season has Franklin gone over 40.5 yards on the road this season. Under in 6 of his last 10 games played.

Props:

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Erickson's Pick: Under 44.5 & Bears +6.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Packers are 0-5-1 O/U this season at home (34.2 PPG).
  • They are 4-10-1 O/U since last season at home.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers are 9-7 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 22-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 18-11 ATS. Green Bay is 6-15 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
  • The Bears have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
  • The Bears have won nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Bears have lost 11 of their last 15 road games following a win.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Each of the Packers’ last five home games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Chicago keeps hanging around and covering, and at some point, the market has to fully adjust to the idea that this team might just be good (or at least better than expected). The Packers are riding high off a big win over Detroit, but they've had plenty of "up one week, down the next" stretches where they follow impressive efforts with flat performances. The Bears have been more consistent in their identity: opportunistic defense, enough offense to stay within one score, and a knack for tightening games in the fourth quarter. With more than a field goal to work with, I'm just going to continue riding the Bears +6.5 to keep this rivalry matchup close. The Bears' advanced metrics might say they're overperforming, but a 9-3 record still counts on the field, and they have a clearer identity than the volatile Packers. Green Bay has looked like a Super Bowl-caliber team one week and then completely disjointed the next, and this inconsistency makes it hard to trust them as a favorite. Note that this has been more offense-related. According to Next Gen Stats...The Packers’ defense has allowed just 13.0 points per game in their 3 losses in 2025, the lowest mark among NFL teams.

That is tied with the 2000 Ravens, who won Super Bowl XXXV, for the fewest points per game allowed in losses by any team in the last 40 seasons.

The Pack's defense also doesn't give up big plays. The Packers’ defense has allowed a league-low 8 explosive plays (15+ yards) across 227 passes targeted short of the sticks, resulting in the lowest explosive play rate allowed in the NFL this season (3.5%). Their ability to limit explosive gains can be directly tied to their ability to limit yards after the catch. They have allowed a league-low 4.3 yards after the catch per reception overall, the 2nd-fewest by a defense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

The primary takeaway remains the same: lean toward Chicago with the points and expect another one-score battle.

But upon further review...I think the game total under is the move to make. The Bears’ secondary got reinforcements last week with Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. They are healthier entering this game than they have been most of this season.

And we know that Chicago's ball-control, run-heavy offense mutes its high-scoring potential. They have been able to run the ball on everyone, and the Packers' defense will be without DeVonte Wyatt.

Per NGS: Wyatt suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 13 against the Lions. Prior to his injury, opposing offenses had averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on designed runs directed towards Wyatt (66 carries), compared to 5.1 yards per carry on runs directed away from him this season (80 carries). Despite his effectiveness, he had logged just 148 snaps in run defense, the 12th-most among Packers' defenders.

I think this game is great to tease...Bears +10.5 and take the total down to under 51.5 points (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook).

Bears +10.5, Under 51.5, and Odunze UNDER 3.5 receptions are close to 2-1 odds.

If you take the normal spread/totals with the prop closer to 6-1 implied odds, with an A+ correlation grade per the BettingPros NFL Same Game Parlay Builder tool.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Erickson's Pick: Rams -9.5 (Lean over 47.5)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Cardinals are 4-3 ATS with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB (1-3 in last four starts).
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 6 of 8 games as road underdogs.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the Cardinals’ last 12 games.
  • Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Arizona is 5-1 toward the over at home this season (nearly 50 PPG)
  • All but three games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-7 record in close games).
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 14 of their last 19 road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Rams have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Rams have won the first half in each of their last six games.
  • The Rams have won 10 straight following a loss (covered 6 straight games after a loss)
  • Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Rams’ last 16 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (10-2 ATS)
  • The Rams are 4-1 toward the O/U on the road this season
  • The Rams have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games as road favorites.
  • Rams are 2-0 ATS after a loss this season (6-3 ATS after a loss dating back to last season).

Overall:

The Rams' turnover-fest last week completely derailed them, but the expectation here is a focused bounce-back against an Arizona defense that can be attacked in any which way.

Matthew Stafford and this offense still move the ball well; they just need to finish drives without self-sabotage. On the other side, Jacoby Brissett has been a fun fantasy story, with Arizona content to let him drop back and chuck it, which creates plenty of potential for a late backdoor and pushes many of his starts toward the over. The overall view: Rams should control and likely cover, but the cleaner angle is attacking the total - expecting Los Angeles to score at will and Brissett-driven volume to push this toward another over.

The Rams have some injuries on defense between Poona Ford, Darious Williams, and Byron Young

The Rams have talked about wanting to keep Kyren Williams "fresh" for the postseason. In an effort to keep him operating at a high level of efficiency, they have been rotating Williams and Blake Corum drive-by-drive. Given Williams is nursing an ankle injury, we should see a hefty dose of Corum against the Arizona Cardinals' bottom-10 run defense (allowed 5 straight RB rushing overs).

Corum has over 32.5 rushing yards in four of his last 6 games. Kyren Williams has hit 16 carries ONCE in his last nine games played-lock of the week.

Props:


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