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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 15)

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A loaded Sunday slate delivers everything we want in December - weather games, playoff swings, quarterback chaos, and plenty of overreactions waiting to be punished.

Favorites are inflated, dogs are live, and market movement is getting sharper by the hour. That's why this is the point in the season where props become the equalizer - data, trends, matchups, and usage tell us more than narratives ever will.

And that's where the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet keeps cashing -
1230 NFL props tracked so far... 57% wins... +92.6 units... 7.5% ROI.

Rushing attempts and passing attempts alone have been destroying the market with 60-62% win rates and 15% ROI.

So don't just sweat spreads and game totals - hunt player edges. The slate is full of them.

Through 14 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 40-36-1, STILL above the winning line after a slightly down Week 14 (2-3).

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • Bears -7.5
  • Eagles -11.5
  • ARI-HOU under 42.5
  • Cardinals +10.5
  • LAC-KC under 41.5
  • DET-LAR under 54.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

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Week 14 Betting Primer

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Patriots ML (Lean Over 48.5)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Patriots have won each of their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots have been the first to 20 points in each of their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last six games against AFC opponents.
  • Eight of the Patriots’ last nine December games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Bills.
  • Mike Vrabel 6-0 after a bye week. Sean McDermott is 0-3 facing teams off the bye week.
  • Buffalo is 3-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage since 2024
  • Buffalo is 0-6 ATS as favorites after a win.
  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 17 of their previous 26 games with their starters playing. In seven of 13 games this season, they have scored 30-plus.
  • The Bills are 1-5 O/U on the road this season.
  • The Patriots are 4-3 ATS at home this season (6-0 on the road).
  • The Pats are 3-1 SU as underdogs this season (0-1 as home underdogs).
  • Ten of the Patriots’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

My Patriots fandom makes the side tough to handicap because I respect how good Josh Allen is and how bad New England's red-zone defense has been. Instead of forcing a call on the spread, I'd rather bet on both quarterbacks putting up numbers and look to the over. That's the way the Patriots’ home games have played out, given that their defense is overrated based on their ease of schedule. Again... they have faced bad QBs, and their games have still gone over at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots are playing physical, confident football, and the Bills' offense can always explode, so a high-scoring script makes more sense to me than trying to pick a winner.

However, the trends have me confident that New England is the right side to bet here, especially given the odds of them winning outright (EVEN). And the fact that Buffalo is favored on the road after already losing to the Patriots earlier this season...the value is on NE as a divisional home underdog.

TreyVeon Henderson has 55-plus rushing yards in six straight games.

Drake Maye has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Patriots’ last four Sunday games at Gillette Stadium. Maye has thrown for at least 240 passing yards 10 times this season, tied for the most of any quarterback in 2025 (Next Gen Stats).

Maye’s active streak of six consecutive games with 240+ passing yards is the third-longest active streak in the NFL this season. His consistent production includes a 273-yard performance against the Bills in Week 5.

He has 233.5+ passing yards in six straight games, and in all but one game played at home this season (6/7). Also over in 3/4 games with the Patriots as underdogs this season.

Buffalo also put CB Christian Benford on the injury report this week with an elbow injury. Benford has matched up against 10 different receivers at least 10 times in a game this season. Across those matchups, according to Next Gen Stats, he has faced 22 targets, allowing just nine receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns. He has held five of those receivers to zero yards, including Ja’Marr Chase in Week 14 (2 targets, 16 matchups) and other notable pass catchers such as DK Metcalf (1 target, 13 matchups) and Drake London (2 targets, 12 matchups). Benford has not allowed more than 60 yards in coverage to any one receiver this season, with his worst performances coming against Zay Flowers (3 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD) and Nico Collins (2 receptions, 43 yards).

Per Next Gen Stats... Maye has completed 75.7% of his pass attempts against split-safety coverage this season, the 2nd-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks, while successfully pushing the ball downfield for 7.2 air yards per completion (2nd-most). The Bills have utilized split-safety coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (49.5%).

Props:

Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Under 42.5 (Lean Cardinals +10)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Cardinals have lost the first half in each of their last 10 games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 14 of their last 19 road games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the Cardinals' last 13 games.
  • Each of the Texans’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Houston is 1-4-1 O/U at home this season (41 PPG).
  • Houston is 3-11-1 O/U at home since the start of the last season (20%) as a home favorite...1-8-1 O/U.
  • Texans games have averaged just 35.3 points per game this season. 77% of their game have finished under 42.5 points. The Texans are an under factory - only one game cleared 50, and nine landed below 40.
  • The Cardinals are 4-4 ATS with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB (1-4 in the last five starts).
  • All but four games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-7 record in close games).
  • Twenty-two of the Texans’ last 31 games have gone UNDER the total points line (71%).
  • Seventeen of the Texans' last 28 wins have been by seven or fewer points (60%).

Overall:
In Texans games, my first instinct is to look at the total and lean under rather than mess with a big spread. Houston's defense keeps games tight and low scoring, and 42-43 feels a little rich given how often their unders have come in.

Jacoby Brissett can absolutely backdoor covers, but at some point, the "garbage time hero" week doesn't show up, so I'm more comfortable attacking the under than picking a side here. Arizona has been a plucky road underdog this season, given how pass-happy they can be. They also play games tighter than what you would typically expect from a 3-10 team. They live in one-score game land - except for three nuclear-blowout losses (-19, -22, -28).

However, Arizona will be without starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., which spells disaster for the offense against a fierce Texans' pass rush.

Feels gross, but the Cardinals also qualify for the "Close Your Eyes" Special given their 28-point loss last week to the Rams. Despite being blown out twice before last week's game, this is the first time they have qualified as a CYE Special.

And now they are catching well above TD in Week 15.

Fade the sides...give me the game total under 42.5 points (And lean Cardinals +10 ATS).

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Bears -7.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • Caleb Williams is 7-2 ATS as a favorite.
  • The Bears are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite (85% ATS) since the start of last season.
  • The Bears have won 12 of their last 18 home games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Bears are 7-6 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 45 points per game (PPG).
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Browns are 0-3 ATS after a win this season.
  • Thirteen of the Browns’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns have lost 13 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • The Browns are 1-5 ATS on the road this season.
  • The Browns are 4-13-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (3-10 ATS since 2024).
  • The Browns are 16-8 toward the OVER on the road since 2023 (No.1 among all teams).
  • The Bears have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five home games.
  • Each of the Bears’ last four games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Bears have won nine of their last 11 games.

Overall:
I'm on the Bears’ side here at home. The Browns' defense just does not travel the same way, and we literally just watched them give up 30+ points on the ground to a one-win Titans team. Chicago wants to run the ball anyway, and I think Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift can do damage in this matchup.

Bad offensive lines also don't tend to travel well...and that spells doom for the Browns, who are dealing with a ton of injuries on their offensive line.

Center Ethan Pocic suffered an Achilles injury during Cleveland's loss to the Titans (out for the rest of the season). Jack Conklin is out due to a concussion, and Wyatt Teller will be out again with a calf injury. Joel Bitonio is also dealing with knee/back injuries.

Given that Ben Johnson comes from the Dan Campbell coaching tree - notoriously great ATS after a loss - I'd expect similar results here for Chicago.

Assuming the weather isn't a total mess (the forecast calls for close to zero-degree temperatures with no precipitation), I also lean toward the over because both teams can get to the mid-20s given how these defenses are trending.

The Bears have now generated a league-high 49.5% rushing success rate in second halves this season, 1.9% higher than the next closest team (Vikings, 47.6%), and 1st overall in rushing success rate (49%) according to Next Gen Stats.

In Week 15, the backfield was split in the typical two-headed monster fashion. Per usual, Swift was more involved as a receiver (four targets resulting in a 57% snap share), but Kyle Monangai scored the 2-point conversion. Although Swift did see his fair share of red-zone rushes (4), neither was able to score a rushing touchdown. Monangai runs like a bowling ball, and you can see why the Bears like him so much. Runs super hard and plays physically. The rookie has 12-plus carries in four straight games (14 or more in back-to-back games and in three of his last four when you include carries negated by penalties)-averaging 15/game - same as Swift.

Also per NGS...Since Week 9, Monangai has totaled 154 rushing yards before contact, 3rd-most in the NFL during that span. The Bears have three players with 100+ rushing yards before contact in that span (Caleb Williams with 123, and D'Andre Swift with 101); only one other team has more than one (Rams). Monangai's 308 yards after contact since Week 9 is tied for the 10th most during that span, while Swift has the 17th-highest mark (272).

The Browns also have allowed 184 rushing yards in two of their last four games.

Was Browns' DT Maliek Collins truly that good? His absence, coinciding with Tony Pollard's Week 14 blow-up game, makes me believe so. Pollard rushed for a career-high 161 yards on 25 carries with two touchdowns in Week 14.

Mason Graham is also battling a rib injury. CB Denzel Ward is also hurt.

Monangai also fits the profile of an RB you want to feed the ball 20-plus times to in cold weather. Take the over on yards/carries.

Props:

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Over 51.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a Division loss.
  • The Ravens have covered four straight on the road versus the Bengals.
  • The Ravens have won 16 of their last 17 games as favorites following a division loss.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last eight home games against the Ravens have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the last seven games between the Bengals and Ravens have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last nine games between AFC North teams.
  • The Ravens have lost the first half in each of their last five games.
  • The Bengals have lost five of their last six games.
  • Eight of the Bengals’ last 13 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bengals’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line (5-1 toward the over this season), 11-3 toward the over since 2024.
  • The Ravens are 19-10 ATS on the road over the last two seasons.
  • Ravens are 15-10 ATS as a road favorite in their last 25 appearances.
  • As road favorites…they are also 8-5-1 toward the over since 2024 (10-4 toward the over on the road overall).

Overall:

This one screams shootout again for me, so I'm going right back to the over. The Ravens' defense has been thoroughly unimpressive; we already know the Bengals' defense is bad, and these matchups tend to push into the 50s and 60s.

Per Next Gen Stats...The Bengals and Ravens have combined to score 52.9 points per game in 8 matchups started by both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. That is the 2nd-most among all active quarterbacks to make more than five starts against each other, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at 56.8 points per game.

On top of that, I want the home dog in an AFC North game, so I lean Bengals catching points at home while making the total my primary angle.

Mike Gesicki also looked fantastic last week despite a brutal matchup against Buffalo. The Bengals tight end slot WR went a perfect 6-86-1 (38% target rate per route run), including one-handed catches in the snow. However, Ja'Marr Chase won't often finish with just eight targets. With Higgins out again, bet the over on Gesicki's receiving yards props. Higgins may miss the rest of the season to avoid further brain damage (The Athletic).

Gesicki also saw two red-zone targets (one in the end zone) back on Thanksgiving night versus the Ravens, suggesting he might have more to offer in the rematch than his final Week 13 box score: 2-19 on four targets. Gesicki also fell short of 35 yards last year at Baltimore without Higgins in the lineup. However, he also has three games with 70-plus yards sans Higgins dating back to last season.

Isaiah Likely went 4-25-1 on six targets last week, while Mark Andrews (fresh off a newly signed extension) caught one pass on five targets. Bengals are next, so both guys are back on the betting OVERs radar, particularly Likely, given how involved he has been in the last two games (especially in the red zone area). Nine catches to Andrews' five in the previous two games. Likely has been a top 12 TE the last two weeks, despite two TDs that didn't convert. Andrews had two end-zone targets versus the Steelers but didn't score.

Per the Athletic – With four games remaining, the Bengals have already allowed the third-most yards to tight ends in a season in NFL history. They've allowed 1,258 yards on 97 receptions.

Props:

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Under 41.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • KC is 1-6 O/U at home this season (40 PPG)
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 13 games following a home loss.
  • Each of the Chiefs' last five home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chiefs have won 16 of their last 17 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against AFC West opponents.
  • Each of the Chiefs’ last seven home games against AFC West opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the Chargers' last six games.
  • The Chargers have lost 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs following a win.
  • The Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage since 2024.
  • The Chargers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season (first time they have been road underdogs)

Overall:
My favorite way to play this is the game total under. Only one game at Arrowhead has gone over the total all year, and the Chargers' offense is held together with duct tape amid QB injuries and an offensive line that’s a mess. The Chiefs' defense played really well against Houston, and Kansas City hasn't been a profitable side to back as short favorites this season. I'd rather trust a lower-scoring, defensive game script than lay it with the Chiefs. Both teams are top-10 red-zone defenses.

And both OLs are in shambles. Even with Trey Smith returning, KC is still down multiple tackles.

Per Next Gen Stats...

Justin Herbert has taken 106 QB hits in 2025, and Patrick Mahomes has been hit 93 times this season. Those are the most and T-2nd-most QB hits taken by any quarterback in the NFL in 2025.

Don't need to squint too hard to see how this game underwhelms...

Before Week 1's OVER in Brazil (by one point), LAC-KC matchups hit four straight unders.

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Props

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Jets have lost 24 of their last 25 road games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games at EverBank Stadium.
  • The Jaguars have won the first half in each of their last six home games against the Jets.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
  • The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS at home this season (83% ATS).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 16-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (13-8 ATS).
  • Six of the last seven games between the Jets and Jaguars have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • NY is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season (75%).
  • Fourteen of the Jets’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have lost 14 of their last 17 games as underdogs.

Overall:

This feels like a classic Jacksonville letdown spot as a big home favorite, so my early lean was toward the Jets catching a huge number. The Jaguars have been volatile all year, and it's easy for them to get a little overvalued after a statement win over the Colts. That said, I really need clarity on the Jets' quarterback situation (Editor’s Note: Brady Cook will start) before getting aggressive here, so for now it's a lean to New York plus the points and a "wait and see" on the injury front.

Early indications are not at all favorable for the Jets, with their offense all over the injury report.

Per Next Gen Stats...

The Jets offense has allowed pressure on a league-high 44.0% of dropbacks this season, and is one of three teams with a pressure rate above 40%.

Much of that comes from their tackle play, as Jets tackles have allowed a 13.0% pressure rate, the 2nd-highest in the NFL. Both starters, Olumuyiwa Fashanu (15.0%) and Armand Membou (11.2%), rank in the bottom 11 at their respective positions in pressure rate allowed, with Fashanu allowing the 2nd-highest pressure rate among left tackles (min. 150 pass blocks).

Fade the large spread here and bet the props on Jaguars players.

Travis Etienne ran for 74 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, with 75.0% of his attempts coming outside the tackles, tying a season high. Etienne rushed for 55 yards across 15 outside carries, along with one TD, while his remaining five carries between the tackles produced 19 yards and his second touchdown (Next Gen Stats). Played 72% of the snaps.

Bhayshul Tuten got hurt last week on a kickoff return - although he did return. He also fumbled twice - once on the kickoff return and on one of his few carries (recovered by the Colts)-tough scene for the rookie RB, who did struggle with fumbles in college.

The Jets are a layup after their mass exodus of players before the NFL trade deadline - Travis Etienne could flirt with a monster rushing line in Week 15.

Nine RBs in the last seven games have hit 62-plus rushing yards versus the Jets. 7 have hit 65-plus rushing yards. Etienne has over 71.5 rushing yards in four of his last six games played.

John Metchie III has three drops over the last two games. Also, he has gone over 4.5 receptions just once in his previous four games. Given the question marks around the Jets QBs... seems like a pretty safe bet on the under.

Worth noting that Metchie did see seven targets from Brady Cook last week (four completions).

Breece Hall has generated 15 of his 23 explosive runs on outside carries this season, tied for the 6th-most among running backs.

On those outside runs, he averages the 8th-fastest speed (13.75 MPH, min. 50 outside carries) and is tied for the 3rd-most carries reaching at least 20 MPH (3) among running backs. The Jaguars’ defense has been strong against designed outside runs, allowing the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate (5.8%) and holding rushers to the 3rd-lowest success rate on those carries (29.2%).

Props:

Las Vegas Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Eagles -11.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • In each of the Raiders’ last 11 games as road underdogs, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 12 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Raiders have lost nine straight as underdogs.
  • Thirteen of the Raiders’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Eagles’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • The Eagles are 11-20-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 19-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (72%).
  • Philly is 4-9 ATS after a loss since 2023.
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as underdogs (3-6 in their last nine games).
  • They are 2-4 ATS on the road (failing to cover in blowout fashion)
  • The Eagles are 6-11 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (<45 PPG).
  • Ten of the Eagles’ last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • In each of the Raiders' last 11 games as road underdogs, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.

Overall:
If I'm going to lay a huge number with anyone this week, it's more likely to be the Eagles at home than some of the other big favorites. The Raiders' offensive line is a disaster; they have to go on the road to a hostile environment, and it's hard to imagine this 2-11 team putting up much of a fight down the stretch. Geno Smith isn't even playing after getting hurt last week. Kenny Pickett will start in a #revenge game.

Philly at home against a lifeless offense is the kind of spot where I can live with laying double digits. Do I love the Eagles’ offense? No. However, whether they cover the spread depends mainly on their defensive performance.

As bad as the Eagles were on MNF, this is a pretty great get-right spot to get the bad taste out of their mouth.

Also, after that ridiculous back-door cover by the Raiders last week, regression seems inevitable for the Las Vegas roster.

The Raiders have lost 7 games this season by 11 or more points. They basically have to be +17 or more to feel safe in any capacity.

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Over 46.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
  • The Commanders have lost the first half in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
  • In each of the Commanders' last 10 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Giants have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games.
  • Seven of the Giants’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Marcus Mariota is 2-4 ATS this season – but 4-2 toward the over. Covered in two of his home starts.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense, they are 11-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 27-8 toward the OVER.
  • With Jaxson Dart, the Giants have gone 1-4 ATS in his five road starts. 5-3 toward the over overall, 3-2 toward the over on the road.
  • The Giants have won two of their last four home games outright as underdogs (4-2 ATS at home this season)
  • Since 2022, the Giants are 14-11-1 as home underdogs. Big Blue at home: 17-13-1 ATS since 2022.

Overall:
This was a complete stay-away for me earlier in the week (major four-range outcome vibes). Both organizations are banged up and dysfunctional, and with Jayden Daniels dealing with another injury, there are far too many unknowns on the Commanders' side. Marcus Mariota is going to start, and he has tailed off ATS.

If I had to pick a side, I'd opt for the Giants at home.  They have been better at home this season and are coming off a bye week. I'd also entertain the idea of betting on them to score first. Significant discrepancies in how fast they have started this season against the Commanders’ defense, allowing the third-most points per game in the first quarter (6.7).

Given my leans toward the Giants and the game total over (two bad defenses), you might consider teasing Big Blue and bringing the total down.

But to be honest, that doesn't even make me feel great. Both of these teams have very strong over profiles (as they each have their fair share of blowouts.

Chris Rodriguez led the backfield with 10 carries for 52 yards (5.2 YPC, 42% snap share). He saw all the carries in the first half (Jeremy McNichols had a first-half carry taken off by a flag).

C-Rod looked good last week. Game script nuked him, and he just didn't score. But he has a great matchup this week versus Big Blue.

Sees goal-line carries every week. The Giants are dead last in red-zone rushing defense this season.

Props:

Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Packers ML

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Broncos have won each of their last 10 games.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last 11 home games (6-0 at home this season, but 3-3 ATS)
  • They are 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Denver is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog since 2024.
  • Eleven of the Broncos' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • Each of the Packers’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • GB is 9-4-1 on the road in their last 14 road games (69% – 3rd highest winning percentage).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 23-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 19-11 ATS. Green Bay is 6-15 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.

Overall:
I actually like the Packers in this one, even on the road. Top to bottom, I think Green Bay is the better overall team compared to Denver, and this number is tight enough that I'm willing to lay a small spread. In what profiles as a close, lower-scoring game, I trust the Packers' structure and ceiling a bit more than the Broncos'.

Just comparing the two QBs - it's no contest.

Bo Nix has an 87.2 passer rating in the Broncos’ current 10-game win streak. That is the 4th lowest passer rating by a quarterback in a 10+ game team win streak since 1970, only behind Kerry Collins with the Titans in 2008, Warren Moon with the Oilers in 1993, and Mark Brunell with the Jaguars in 1999.

Jordan Love ranks 1st in total EPA (and EPA/play) and 8th in dropback success rate. Nix ranks 30th in dropback success rate this season.

And per Next Gen Stats, Matt LaFleur is 21-4 as a head coach in games in December. That is tied with Vince Lombardi for the best December record by any head coach in NFL history (minimum 25 December games).

If the top-end defenses are close to a coin flip, I'll take the team with the superior QB - regardless of where the game is being played.

Props:

Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Seahawks -13.5 (Lean over 42.0)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • The Colts have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Colts’ last six December games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Twelve of the Colts’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last nine games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in six of the Seahawks' last seven games at Lumen Field.
  • Nine of the Seahawks' last 11 games as home favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Seahawks have won each of their last nine games against teams with losing records.

Overall:

My first instinct was actually to lean toward the over rather than to pick a side. Seattle can absolutely put up points at home, and maybe the Colts can get enough from Philip Rivers' arm within Shane Steichen's scheme to give the Colts' offense a little surprise upside. Rivers hasn't played in five years, but he can probably still sling it. His mobility, though, is a big question mark. RT Braden Smith also will miss the game, along with star CB Sauce Gardner.

After Seattle-Atlanta blew up my under last week, I'd rather bet on another game script where either a Seahawks blowout or a feisty Colts showing can still get this total over the mid-40s.

Nobody can exactly pinpoint how this Colts offense will perform with the massive downgrade at QB...but at Seattle is the toughest matchup one could draw. The second-best defense in EPA/allowed on defense.

The Hawks have the best ATS after wins (12-5-1, 71%). Seattle is No.1 in point differential and first in margin of victory (17). As heavy home favorites...(7 points or more), Seattle is 3-0 ATS this season.

The Seahawks have continued to be a run-heavy offense this season, calling run plays nearly half of the time (49.7%), the highest rate in the NFL.

When doing so, the Seahawks have rushed outside on 60.6% of designed runs (5th-highest in NFL). Kenneth Walker has totaled 523 yards from outside rushes, the 8th-highest among running backs. At the same time, his teammate Zach Charbonnet has been effective in scoring situations, with five of his eight touchdowns coming from outside rushes.

Walker has been seizing a larger role in recent weeks. Charbonnet had one carry in the first half last week, while also seeing some carries in garbage time. Walker played 60% of the snaps with Sam Darnold as the QB. He also drew two targets near the end zone but didn't score (3 RZ carries).

Over the last three weeks, touches have been 42-29 in favor of KW3. Walker has 13-plus opportunities in seven straight games to Charbonnet's four.

If DeForest Buckner remains sidelined for Indy (questionable coming off the IR), we could see a spike in week from Walker versus the Colts defense in a heavy positive game script.

Walker has 60-plus rushing yards in three of his last four home games. The last four RBs have 64-plus rushing yards versus the Colts.

Charbonnet has scored in five straight home games. Zach Charbonnet: Anytime TD (-105). Every home game he has played this season, he has scored.

With old man Rivers under center, I expect a lot of quick passes. That includes RB Jonathan Taylor. JT has gone over 2.5 receptions in 8/13 games this season. Seattle has allowed the second-most receptions to RBs this season (5.5/game).

Props:

Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: 49ers -12.5 (Lean Over)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The 49ers have won each of their last 10 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • In each of the Titans’ last 11 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The Titans have lost the first half in each of their last nine road games.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against starting rookie QBs.
  • Each of the Titans’ last four games against NFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 0-11 ATS after a win (0-11 SU).
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 18 games following a win.
  • The 49ers are 1-4 ATS after a bye week (since 2021)
  • The Niners have lost and failed to cover the spread following four of their last six
  • The Niners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 home games.

Overall:
This sets up as a complete smash spot for the 49ers off the bye, but I'm not in a hurry to lay nearly two touchdowns with San Francisco or hold my nose with the Titans. Typically, the 49ers don't cover these massive home spreads, and they have been brutal post-bye weeks.

But against rookie QBs...they have dominated. Given how the Titans covered (and won) last week, odds are they won't roll it back two weeks in a row.

Even so, I'd rather attack this game through Christian McCaffrey props in a classic "CMC runs wild" script. Multi-touchdown and yardage overs on McCaffrey make more sense to me than getting involved with the spread.

Both teams are coming off wins at Cleveland - and ironically, the Titans' offense scored more points (29 vs 26).

Would also lean toward the over.

Aside from CMC props, I love buying the dip on 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall. His numbers are incredibly low, given his lack of production in the last three games. But to start the year, Slick Rick had two 100-yard games. Still no guarantee he goes off here...but the matchup is solid and the number is so low for a WR in this offense. Titans have allowed the 6th-most yards to WRs this season. In four straight games, a WR has surpassed 76 yards or more against them.

And if you recall last season...Pearsall had a stretch of games where he was not relevant before really popping off over the final three weeks.

As SF makes a push towards the postseason, it would make sense for him to get going.

Projections have him clearing 40 yards easily.

Props:

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Under 40.5

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Saints have won the first half in each of their last six games against the Panthers.
  • The Saints have lost eight of their last nine home games.
  • Eight of the Saints’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Saints have conceded the first touchdown in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • Fourteen of the Saints' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the Saints’ last four games.
  • Carolina has lost 11 straight and failed to cover the spread as a favorite.
  • Bryce Young is 4-16 on the road as a starter. 8-15-1 ATS.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Saints have lost 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine home games.
  • Eight of the Saints’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Saints are 1-5 O/U at home this season (37.3 PPG)

Overall:

My heart wants to go back to Carolina here, especially with those Panthers division futures still alive, but I'm not pretending this is a high-confidence spot. Carolina has been 6-0 against the spread after a loss, but this time they're coming off a bye, which muddies that trend a bit. I still think they're the better team than New Orleans, so I lean toward the Panthers as a short favorite, but this is far from a confident take. Bryce Young has been BUNS on the road, and Carolina, you want as an underdog after a loss...not as a road favorite in a divisional matchup. We already saw the Panthers lose to the Saints 17-7 in Week 10 as 4.5 home favorites - naturally coming off a massive win versus the Packers.

New Orleans has been home to the under this season...and I think that's the angle I ultimately lean here.

The Panthers have played zone coverage at the highest rate in the league this season (84.6%).

Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Tyler Shough has averaged 6.8 yards per attempt against zone coverage, compared to 5.5 yards per attempt against man coverage. However, he has thrown all five of his interceptions against zone coverage.

Juwan Johnson played just 52% of the snaps last week, seeing a season-low 61% route rate - likely due to the run-heavy game script. Likely an outlier for a player who has provided a high floor this season and still finished with four catches for 38 yards. His receptions prop is now listed at 3.5 - great value. Over in every game but one since Week 7. In his first matchup vs Carolina, Johnson caught all four of his targets for 92 yards and a touchdown

Props:

Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Erickson's Pick: Under 54.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Rams have won the first half in each of their last seven games.
  • The Rams have won each of their last four games against teams with winning records.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last four games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • Rams are 4-5 ATS as home favorites since 2024
  • Rams as home favorites O/U since last season: 1-8. 3-12 since 2023.
  • Eight of the Rams’ last nine games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the last four games between the Lions and Rams has gone UNDER the total points line. All were projected as 50-point-plus shootouts, none of which transpired. Jared Goff versus Sean McVay has not produced as many points as anticipated before kickoff.
  • The Lions are 0-4 ATS after a win.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Teams are 2-1-9 toward the Over in their game following a matchup versus Dallas. The Lasso Lag!

Overall:

Early in the week, my lean was heavily toward the Lions if I'm getting more than a field goal. The Rams don't really have a true home-field advantage, Detroit gets dome conditions that suit their offense, and they also have extended rest coming off the Thursday game. The Rams just blew out Arizona and might be a bit overvalued at home, so I'm happy to take Dan Campbell's team with the points in that scenario.

But upon further review...I am just going to take the under. 54.5 points is a monstrous total - and it's just not giving enough credence to the Rams defense (No. 2 in red zone TD rate allowed this season, 3rd in EPA/pass attempt faced, and 10th in pressure rate).

The Rams defense has forced a league-high 10 turnovers by pressure this season, the most in the NFL.

These two teams rank top-5 in defensive DVOA this season. I understand the Lions have had some injuries, but schematically, they are very sound. And they still have studs like Aidan Hutchinson.

The Lions' offensive line will have its work cut out for them - even if guard Christian Mahogany returns to action. OT Taylor Decker is playing at less than 100% – and that is evident in his pressures allowed this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, Decker has allowed a pressure rate above 9.8% for the third year in a row (11.1%) after not allowing a greater than 9.2% rate in any of the previous four seasons.

The Rams' defense has also faced the lowest rate of play action this season - a staple in the Lions' offensive scheme.

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