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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 17)

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Through 16 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 47-42-1, still above the winning line after a .500 Week 16 (4-3) with two of my favorite underdogs (Titans/Panthers) winning outright.

The Sunday main slate is where chaos lives in Week 17. Teams at opposite ends of the standings collide, the weather starts to matter and game scripts swing wildly based on early results across the league. This is where blindly trusting power ratings can get you burned.

Instead, this slate rewards context - who's playing for something, who isn't and which teams are showing their hand with late-season usage trends.

Note for this version of the BettingPros Primer (and future versions), game analysis will only be provided for contests where I have action. A la... no more full game-by-game breakdowns with the focus shifting to the higher confidence plays (aka the best bets).

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Top Best Bets:

  • Browns +3
  • Titans +2.5
  • Seahawks -7
  • Jets +13.5
  • Eagles +1.5
  • Jaguars-Colts Over 48.5
  • Giants Moneyline

Top Player Props:

Anytime Touchdown Bets:

Week 17 NFL Betting Primer

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals

Erickson's Pick: Props

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback (1-6 in the last seven starts). They are 7-4 toward the OVER.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 road games.
  • All but five games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-8 record in close games).
  • Four of the Bengals' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bengals' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line (5-2 toward the over this season); 11-4 toward the over since 2024 (7-2 toward the over as a home favorite).
  • The road team has covered the spread in 13 of the Cardinals' last 15 games.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Cardinals’ last five games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Trey McBride has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Cardinals’ last seven games as road underdogs.

Overall:

This was the easiest handicap on the board on Monday: Bet points unless the weather is insane. Two aggressive pass-happy offenses, two defenses that have been friendly to the over all year and a total that still might not be high enough if conditions are normal. The only under path is if Cincinnati turns into an arctic wind tunnel and Arizona (dome team) gets dragged into it.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature is not cooperating as the forecast calls for definite rain and wind (although not cold at 60 degrees). However, the game total has still not budged, sitting at a high of 53.5 points.

If rain makes it harder to complete passes, then we could see this game disappoint.

Player props it is.

Michael Wilson also saw his targets get nuked with Marvin Harrison Jr. back in Week 16. However, he bailed out fantasy managers with a touchdown and 52 yards on two catches (four targets).

Harrison also only had three targets (all deep targets with 73 incomplete air yards) on 51% of the snaps.

The Cardinals have nothing to play for, so there's no reason to limit Harrison in his second game back from injury. It’s so clear he is the preferred target over Wilson when both are healthy. Wilson has barely been targeted when sharing the field with Harrison in his last two games (neither of which Harrison has even played a full allotment of snaps).

The Arizona coaches have already discussed Harrison being ready for another game, now that he is removed from the heel injury.

Wilson doesn't have more than four catches in any game he has played with Harrison this season. Zero. And you can get this bet at plus money under 4.5 receptions.

Note the matchup, as the Bengals allow the third-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.

Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Erickson's Pick: Browns +3

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the last eight games between the Steelers and Browns.
  • The Browns have covered four straight versus the AFC North teams.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Fourteen of the Browns’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns boast the third-best home ATS record (15-9, 62%) since 2023 (trailing only Pittsburgh and Chicago).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in 13 of their last 21 home games.
  • The Browns are 6-9 over their last 15 games as home underdogs (straight up/SU).
  • They are 4-1 ATS at home as underdogs this season.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 road games.
  • The Steelers are 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Steelers are 8-6-1 toward the OVER this season.

Overall:

This is a classic December AFC North grime. The total tells you everything: 34.5 is an alarm bell that this is going to be an ugly rock fight. In low-scoring games, the underdog becomes live because you're not asking them to be "good," you're asking them not to get buried. Cleveland at home, Myles Garrett, weird things happen - and if the Steelers are becoming the public "hot team," that's usually when you start looking the other way.

Especially when they aren't playing with a ton of motivation, potentially - if the Ravens lose to the underdog Packers on Saturday Night Football, the Steelers lock up the AFC North. A single win for the Steelers or a loss by the Ravens in the next two weeks is all it would take for the Steelers to clinch the AFC North.

That said, running back touchdown props for the Steelers look rather off. Jaylen Warren (+260) and Kenneth Gainwell (+210) are longer than 2-1 to score despite facing a poor Browns run defense since the loss of defensive tackle Maliek Collins.

The Steelers are the only NFL team with two running backs with 900+ scrimmage yards in 2025, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Warren leads the Steelers with 1,128 scrimmage yards; Kenneth Gainwell has 911 scrimmage yards.

Props:

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans

Erickson's Pick: Titans +2.5

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last eight games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Titans have scored first in each of their last six home games.
  • Ten of the Saints’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Saints' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Saints are 0-3 over/under as favorites this season; 0-4 over/under after a win.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 straight following a win (lost 12 outright).
  • Titans are 5-3 toward the over at home this season (44 points per game).
  • The Titans have covered four of the last five home games.

Overall:

I'm backing Tennessee again. They've been covering at home, they're building momentum and the Saints are an indoor team (with definite rain in the forecast) traveling to Tennessee. The Titans' plan is simple: Feed Tony Pollard, shorten the game and hope for one or two turnover moments. I also don't mind the Titans Moneyline sprinkles if the number stays reasonable.

Pollard recorded 102 rushing yards on 21 carries against the Chiefs' defense in Week 16. Pollard generated a season-high 101 yards after contact, the most allowed by Kansas City’s defense to any running back this season. He also forced eight missed tackles, resulting in 41 additional yards gained on the ground, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also had a touchdown that was called back on an illegal penalty play. Also fumbled.

Even so... Pollard has some contract incentives within reach to round out the season  - 1,110 yards and seven touchdowns are well within reach. Currently at 949 rushing yards and five scores.

Pollard is averaging 20 touches per game over the last three weeks. He has 60+ rushing yards in each of his last four games.

The Saints just lost defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, who leads the Saints’ defensive line in snaps and run stops this season. He has been ruled out of Sunday’s game versus the Titans.

Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Erickson's Pick: Props

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Jaguars have been the first to 15 points in each of their last seven games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last six games (won six straight as favorites).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 17-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (14-8 ATS).
  • Each of the last six games between the Jaguars and Colts has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Colts' last six games at home as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Colts’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Colts' last 11 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Colts are 9-6 ATS at home since 2024 (3-3 ATS as a home underdog).

Overall:

This is a dome game in late December - that's basically a permission slip to bet on the offense. Jacksonville is playing fast and confident, and its defense is a pass funnel. If you're choosing one bet, I'd rather bet points than lay a big number.

Although the fact that cornerback Sauce Gardner will return for the Colts does have me slightly hesitant on the game total over.

The Colts are out of the playoffs, so there's nothing else for them to play for than to pad some stats. Looking at you, Alec Pierce.

Pierce scored twice versus the 49ers, going 4-86 on just five targets (two end-zone targets). Feels very boom-or-busty with his high air yards per target (18.1). But he has just shown all year that he is just good. Also produced earlier this year versus the Jags with Riley Leonard at quarterback (80 yards).

The 2026 impending free agent is also 129 yards away from 1,000 yards. Pierce has 40+ yards in all but three games this season, with 60+ yards in all but four games played (78%).

The Colts’ defense ranks second in yards and fifth in targets/receptions to tight ends this season. Brenton Strange was efficient last week, going 5-39-1 on seven targets (thrice in the red zone). Strange scored against the Colts in Week 15, but it was called back on an offensive pass interference call. Still finished with three catches for 27 yards on six targets.

Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

Erickson's Pick: Props (Lean Over 44.5 Points)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
  • The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • Each of the last five games between the Buccaneers and Dolphins has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games following a division game.
  • The Buccaneers have lost seven of their last nine games.
  • The Buccaneers are 17-9 ATS on the road since 2023 (71%) - second-best mark in the NFL.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record (74%).
  • Ten of the Dolphins’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • One Dolphins game (last week) has exceeded 44 points since Week 6.
  • Tampa Bay is 2-6 over/under as a road team this season toward the total.

Overall:

The cleaner angle than sides here is either player props or on the point total - warm weather, both teams can create chunk plays and Tampa's defense is a weekly invitation to throw. If this turns into the "get-right" spot for Baker Mayfield, it still probably comes via scoring. If Miami keeps it frisky at home with their young signal-caller, that also feeds the same outcome. I'd rather bet the environment than pick a side and get annoyed.

Even so, Mayfield has gone under 30.5 passes in seven of his last 10 games played. Todd Bowles spoke vocally last week about wanting to run the ball 30+ times. Maybe that was specific to Carolina. But I think there's a chance it carries over versus Miami - top-10 run% faced this season. Against a rookie quarterback, Tampa Bay might run the ball 30+ times and win in Week 17. Only thrice has Mayfield exceeded 31 passes when favored this season. The Buccaneers are 1-3 toward the over when offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs has not played.

5-star bet this week on the BP Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Props:

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Erickson's Pick: Pass (Lean Jets +13.5)

Confidence: ★★

Trends:

  • The Patriots have won each of their last seven road games (covered five straight as road underdogs).
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • Nine of the Patriots’ last 10 games at MetLife Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Patriots have lost the first quarter in each of their last three games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
  • The Jets have lost each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Jets.
  • The Jets are 0-5 ATS as underdogs in the AFC East.
  • The Jets have covered the spread in four of their last eight games.
  • Fifteen of the Jets’ last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have lost 16 of their last 19 games as underdogs.
  • Ten of the Patriots’ last 11 December games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Pats are 2-1 ATS as road favorites this season; 1-1 ATS as road touchdown favorites.

Overall:

I badly want to lay the points. It's the Jets. They're an invisible team on both sides of the ball, and the Patriots are still chasing positioning for the No. 1 seed. Normally, I hate living in the "big spread" neighborhood (and always take the double-digit home underdog), but this is one of the rare spots where the mismatch + motivation + opponent incompetence lines up. Also, the Patriots have been money on the road ATS. The Pats have been covering; the Jets can't stop anybody and don't consistently sustain offense.

But to bet against my process is something I don't like to do, so this is likely a shy-away spot for me (or just close your eyes and take the Jets +13.5). So far, third-string quarterbacks are 3-0 ATS in Week 17.

The Patriots are still banged up, both on offense and defense. Milton Williams will not be activated for Sunday’s game against the Jets.

And as a sidenote, as a true ball-knower and Patriots diehard... Drake Maye has not fared well when he has played in the rain this season. That’s part of the reason why the Patriots lost in Week 1 versus the Raiders.

The Patriots’ run defense is not as good as the season-long stats would suggest. They have been decimated by injuries (Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Khyiris Tonga) and have allowed five straight running back rushing prop overs since Week 10.

Last week, Breece Hall rushed for 54 yards on 16 carries while adding two catches for nine yards (64% snap rate). That’s 18 total touches. Hall’s lowest touch total since Week 10 is 14.

Hall rushed for 58 yards on 14 carries in his first matchup this season against the Patriots.

Props:

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Erickson's Pick: Seahawks -7

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Seahawks have won each of their last 13 games as road favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 12-2 SU on the road since the start of 2024.
  • However, Seattle is just 4-3-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
  • However, they have been great playing on the East Coast in general, boasting a 5-0 record straight up (4-1 ATS). East coast road warriors for the most part.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last 11 games have gone over the total points line.
  • Carolina is 4-3 toward the over at home this season (44 points per game)
  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 14 games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Carolina is 2-5 ATS after a win this season (4-7 ATS since 2024); 0-2 ATS after divisional wins.
  • Seven of the Panthers’ last nine games at home as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Trend collision game: Seahawks ATS on the road versus Panthers ATS after a loss. But Carolina won last week - so the Panthers trend doesn't apply, which means we're fading them in the follow-up. Seattle also has extra rest (Thursday game), and they've been one of the best road-cover teams in football under Mike Macdonald. I'm laying the touchdown with the road warrior Seahawks.

New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders

Erickson's Pick: Props (Lean Giants Moneyline)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last 10 games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • In each of the Raiders’ last five games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Eight of the Giants’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Raiders’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders have lost 11 straight as underdogs.
  • The Giants have lost 12 straight as road underdogs
  • The Giants have lost 22 of their last 26 road games.
  • With Jaxson Dart, the Giants have gone 1-4 ATS in his five road starts.
  • New York is 8-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-20 straight up).
  • NY is 5-3 over/under on the road this season (four of the last five have gone over the points total)
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games as underdogs (4-7 in their last 11 games).

Overall:

The "battle for the No. 1 overall draft pick" games are always chaos - which is exactly why I'm not picking a side. Indoors in Vegas, bad defenses and one obvious "best non-quarterback" player you can actually trust to touch the ball: Ashton Jeanty. My favorite angle here is attacking it through Jeanty props.

Jeanty recorded 128 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against the Texans in Week 16 (+39 rushing yards over expectation), including a career-high 104 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries between the tackles. Jeanty also generated 109 yards after contact, his second-most in a game this season. He turned his lone reception into a 60-yard touchdown in the third quarter, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Giants have allowed the second-most yards allowed to running backs this season, behind only the Bengals.

However, the tea leaves are very much leaning into the Raiders looking to “tank” this game. It was announced late Friday that EDGE rusher Maxx Crosby would be held out of action on Sunday. He plays through everything.

Props:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

Erickson's Pick: Eagles +1.5 (Under 44.5 Points)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 18 of their previous 28 games with their starters on the field. In eight out of 15 games this season, they have scored 30+ points.
  • The Bills have won 16 of their last 17 home games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • In each of the Bills’ last four games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • Six of the Eagles’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 18-8 ATS after a win since 2024 (69% - best mark in the NFL).
  • The Eagles are 11-20-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20+ points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 21-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (74%).
  • The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (4-1 SU); 1-4 toward the over.
  • Buffalo is 1-7 ATS as favorites after a win.

Overall:

I opened the week looking to bet on Josh Allen at home in a short spread. Buffalo's defense still has tackling issues (which matters against Philly) and more injuries, but I’m still not fully bought into the Eagles as a complete, reliable week-to-week team - especially with health questions around key pieces. If the number is basically "choose your winner," I felt like I wanted to back Allen at home.

Lane Johnson is still out for the Eagles, but defensive tackle Jalen Carter will return to bolster the defense. Linebacker Nakobe Dean will be out.

But the trends love the Birds as road underdogs, and the Bills’ run defense cannot stop the run.

Buffalo’s offense feels undermanned outside of James Cook and Josh Allen - the latter of whom might not be 100% after suffering a foot injury last week. The Eagles can run the football on Buffalo and play effective defense on the road.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen has generated an explosive play on 19.8% of his dropbacks when facing four or fewer rushers this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

In addition to his ability to gain chunk yardage, Allen has been able to consistently move the chains, as only Brock Purdy has converted a first down on a higher percentage of his dropbacks (44.8%) than Allen on those plays (37.2%). The Eagles' defense has surrendered an explosive play on just 6.9% of their opponents' dropbacks when they send four or fewer pass rushers this season.

And if the Eagles cover the +1.5vline, it will likely be accompanied by the under at 44.5 points.

I also love DeVonta Smith’s props this week. Smith was efficient last week, catching six passes for 42 yards and one touchdown (on eight targets). Had another end-zone target knocked out of his hands, but he scored a few plays later.

I felt like Smith had the opportunity to finish the year on a high note, given the defenses on the Eagles' schedule were bad versus slot receivers. That will be true versus Buffalo in Week 17 (rank in the top five of fantasy points allowed to slot receivers). Buffalo has also been very good versus No. 1 WRs in the last several weeks, suggesting more targets for the Slim Reaper. Especially with A.J. Brown nursing a wisdom tooth operation earlier this week (seriously, who approved this?),

The Bills are elite versus fantasy tight ends.

Smith has hit over 46.5 yards in 10 out of 15 games this season (67%). Also hit the over in four straight games when the Eagles have been underdogs (60+ yards in 10 straight games as underdogs on Sundays). Smith has also exceeded the previous closing receiving yards line at 49.5 this season.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Smith has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AFC opponents.

Props:

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