NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 18)

Through 17 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 51-45-1, still above the winning line after another above .500 in Week 17 (4-3) with two of ATS picks from the Week 17 Best Bets Show hitting (player props….not so much).

Let’s wrap the regular season on a high note. EMBRACE THE CHAOS. And be sure to check out the picks for Saturday’s two-game slate.

The final Sunday of the regular season is always chaos - and that's precisely why it creates some of the best betting edges of the year. This slate is split cleanly between teams fighting for playoff seeding, teams locked into their spots and managing snap counts, and teams already mentally checked out with Cancun reservations practically booked. The challenge - and the opportunity - is figuring out who still needs this game and who is just trying to get through it healthy. And how can we capitalize on the market’s confidence in teams that “want it” more?

You might see some contenders playing starters longer than expected to secure byes or home-field advantage, while others pull the plug early to protect their core pieces. On the other side, eliminated teams can still be dangerous - especially when players are chasing contract incentives, milestone bonuses, or simply putting good tape on film before free agency. That's when effort becomes uneven, rotations get weird, and game scripts break from what the market expects.

Week 18 is also where motivation outweighs matchups. Some teams tighten up under pressure. Others play loose with nothing to lose. Coaches show their hand quickly, and in-game adjustments matter more than any power rating ever could. This is the slate where you have to read between the lines - not just the spreads.

As always, this is where the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet really shines. Usage trends, snap expectations, and incentive-driven props are far more predictive than full-game sides this week. Some players are still grinding. Others are already packing sunscreen. Knowing the difference is the edge.

Note for this version of the BettingPros Primer (and future versions), game analysis will only be provided for contests where I have action. A la… no more as in-depth, complete game-by-game breakdowns with the focus shifting to the higher confidence plays (aka the best bets).

• More NFL Betting Advice
• NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• Expert NFL Game Picks
• NFL Betting Strategy

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Top Best Bets:

• Bengals -7.5
• Cardinals +9.5
• CHI-DET under 50.5
• PHI-WAS under 39.5
• Eagles -3.5
• MIN-GB under 37.5

Top Player Props:

• Michael Wilson OVER 65.5 receiving yards
• Hunter Henry: OVER 3.5 receptions
• Drake Maye: OVER 243.5 passing yards
• Caleb Williams: OVER 236.5 passing yards
• Bijan Robinson: OVER 128.5 rushing and receiving yards

Anytime Touchdown Bets:

• Tony Pollard: Anytime TD (+180)
• Chase Brown: Anytime TD (-115)

Week 18 NFL Betting Primer

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Erickson's Pick: Under 37.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

Green Bay is locked in as the No. 7 seed and won’t play another game at Lambeau Field.

The total is probably the cleanest angle to play here, because Minnesota's defense is dictating games regardless of who plays quarterback on either side. With Green Bay locked into its seed and their motivation in question, it’s hard to justify paying a premium on the side (although I see the argument for the Vikings with JJ McCarthy under center, not Max Brosmer for Minnesota). Even though the game is indoors, it’s not as crucial as the matchup itself - specifically, Brian Flores' defense suffocating limited offenses. The recommendation was to keep it simple and bet the under, rather than trying to thread the needle on a side in a game where motivation and Packers news can swing everything.

The line suggests GB is resting their main guys (as the team will be starting third-string QB Clayton Tune) and they’ll be facing JJ McCarthy under center for the Vikings. Still, the Vikings have several other offensive injuries, including Brian O'Neill, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

Justin Jefferson is 53 receiving yards away from 1,000. I’d expect Minnesota to pepper their No. 1 WR in an effort to get him over the century mark. The coaches are aware that he is striving for this benchmark.

Trends:

• Seven of the Vikings’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Vikings have won each of their last four games.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games (0-5 ATS after a loss).
• Vikings are 2-5 O/U at home this season (40.3 PPG).
• The Vikings have won eight of their last 12 home games.
• All but 17 of the Vikings' last 47 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (75%).

Props: 

• Justin Jefferson: OVER 67.5 receiving yards

---

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Erickson's Pick: Bengals -7.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Overall:

Cincinnati is positioned to take care of business at home and cover the touchdown-plus spread against Cleveland. The Bengals have looked comfortable as heavy favorites lately, piling up points in back-to-back lopsided wins, and the setup favors them again with Cleveland traveling.

The Bengals have won each of their last two games by 20+ points, defeating Miami 45-21 in Week 16 and Arizona 37-14 in Week 17.

The Browns have been a disaster on the road, losing 14 of their last 15 road games and failing to cover consistently in that split, which reinforces the "fade them outside Cleveland" approach. There's also uncertainty around Cleveland's offensive firepower, including whether they'll be missing key playmakers, and the spot is historically rough for a rookie quarterback making another road start.

Harold Fannin is out for the Browns after he injured his groin last week. Fannin has been the top playmaker for the Browns’ passing game.

Even though Cincinnati is already out of the playoff picture, the motivational edge still leans their way because Zac Taylor can sell "finish strong" momentum. Joe Burrow's presence creates urgency to bank wins whenever he's healthy.

The prop angle lines up cleanly with the side: Chase Brown is set up to be a focal point as he chases a 1,000-yard rushing season and needs roughly one normal workload to get there. Cincinnati has every reason to feed him early and often, especially with Burrow publicly praising his importance and the Browns' run defense having fallen off since losing key interior personnel (DT Maliek Collins). If Cleveland sells out to help Myles Garrett chase the sack record, that only invites even more run volume, and it also fits the trend that Cleveland tends to underperform the week after a win. Put it together, and the most likely script is a Bengals-controlled game where they build a lead, lean on Chase Brown to salt it away, and win by enough to cover.

Brown is currently at 947 rushing yards. He needs 53 rushing yards to hit 1,000 for the first time in his career.

Trends:

• The Browns have lost each of their last 10 road games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Browns have lost 14 of their last 15 road games.
• The Browns have lost the first half in each of their last 13 road games against AFC North opponents.
• The Browns have covered five straight against the AFC North.
• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 road games.
• The Browns are 1-6 ATS on the road this season (the only cover came against the Raiders).
• Every other road loss came by at least 7 points.
• The Browns are 4-14-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (3-11 ATS since 2024).
• The Browns are 0-7 ATS after a win.
• Five of the last six games between the Browns and Bengals have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Twelve of the Bengals’ last 15 home games have gone OVER the total points line (6-2 toward the over this season); 12-4 toward the over since 2024 (8-2 toward the over as a home favorite).
• Fifteen of the Browns' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props:

• Chase Brown OVER 61.5 rushing yards

---

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Erickson's Pick: Under 38.5

Confidence: ★★

Overall:

A Texans win, and the Jags' loss gives Houston the AFC South division. They are motivated, while the Colts are just trying to finish a disastrous second-half season.

Riley Leonard will make his first NFL start, but no CB Sauce Gardner for Indy after he got hurt again last week.

Houston being a big favorite makes sense on paper, but they don't consistently blow teams out, even when they control the game. With Indianapolis turning to a new and mobile quarterback due to elimination, that introduces weird volatility - and teams playing loose in Week 18 can be annoying to handicap. Something is bound to go lopsided in one of these two AFC South divisional games, with both home teams heavily favored against rookie QBs.

There are also individual incentives that could matter, like Jonathan Taylor chasing the rushing title currently held by James Cook, which can keep the Colts committed to a run-heavy plan even if the scoreboard turns. Houston may still win, but laying more than 10 points in a divisional spot is a tough click in what should be a lower-scoring game (as tends to be the case with all Texans games).

We saw Indy catching double-digit points on the road in Philip Rivers’ first start just a few weeks back, and they were narrowly close to winning outright in Seattle.

Alec Pierce is 129 receiving yards away from 1,000 (currently at 871 yards).

Trends:

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Erickson's Pick: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: ★★★

Overall:

Embrace the chaos because both teams are operating in the gray area between "what the franchise should do" and "what players and coaches will actually do." The Giants already damaged their draft position by winning against the Raiders last week, which opens the door to a "might as well win again" mentality. Dallas might be more likely to show up with purpose - especially if the Cowboys want to finish strong and complete a division sweep. A big Week 18 wild card here is random backfield production. If the Giants aren't fully engaged defensively (especially in the second half), you can get a surprise rushing eruption from a secondary runner. The total also stands out as playable because neither defense inspires trust, making the over an appealing way to avoid guessing which team cares more.

George Pickens is eight catches away from 100. Jake Ferguson is banged up (but playing), as are RBs Javonte Williams (out) and Malik Davis (out with calf and eye injuries). We could see this backfield spearheaded by Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah in Week 18.

However, I also think Dak Prescott is probably a long shot to play the entire game. I think he plays enough to lock down the 2025 passing yards title, though, as he is currently just 34 passing yards ahead of Matthew Stafford (also TBD how much he will play in Week 18).

The Giants will be without safety Jevon Holland, along with several other defensive players, including Cor’Dale Flott. They have a CVS-level receipt of injuries entering Week 18.

Wan'Dale Robinson is also eight catches away from 100 (also listed on the injury report this week with a rib injury). He and Theo Johnson will not play.

Trends:

---

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Erickson's Pick: Saints +3.5

Confidence: ★★★

Overall:

One of Joe and my favorite early numbers from the Week 18 lookahead show, with New Orleans (winners of four straight and five straight covers) catching points despite playing competent football and having a quarterback who has generated real momentum toward the offensive rookie of the year award. Tyler Shough has been productive enough that taking them as an underdog feels like the value side, especially with Atlanta coming off a high-leverage, prime-time game and dealing with a rest disadvantage.

Falcons are being overvalued at home after a big win…that they almost blew. Before Monday Night Football, Atlanta had dropped 3 in a row at home SU and ATS.

However, the loss of WR Chris Olave (ruled out in Week 18 due to blood clots) has me shying away from taking this game as one of my best bets – especially if I am only getting three points.

After a massive Monday Night performance, Bijan Robinson is now up to 2,255 yards from scrimmage this season. He’s also now 255 yards from scrimmage away from breaking the NFL single-season record of 2,509.

Bijan has over 128.5 yards in four of his last five games. He hit 107 in his first matchup versus the Saints, but New Orleans DT Bryan Bresee was active. Without him last week, Tony Pollard totaled 95 yards from scrimmage. And now the Saints are down another DT with Nathan Shepard also being ruled out. He leads the Saints in defensive snaps across the DL.

Trends:

• The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Saints have lost the first half in seven of their last eight road games.
• The Saints have lost each of their last five games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Saints have covered nine straight as NFC South underdogs.
• Ten of the Saints' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Sixteen of the Saints’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Saints are 1-3 over/under as favorites this season; 1-4 over/under after a win.
• Eight of the Falcons’ last 10 home games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Falcons are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 home games as underdogs and 11-9 as home favorites on the ML.
• As home favorites since 2023: 6-13 ATS (33%). 4-8 ATS since the start of the last season.
• The Saints with Tyler Shough at QB are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games (3-1 straight up).

Props:

• Bijan Robinson: OVER 128.5 rushing and receiving yards

---

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Erickson's Pick: Pass or Props

Confidence: ★★

Overall:

The Jags are still in play for the No. 1 seed if both NE/DEN lose in Week 18. The Jaguars win any tie with any combination of the Patriots and Broncos. They also still need to win to lock up the division with Houston on their tail to leap them if they win and the Jags lose.

Ergo, the Jags will be all hands on deck in Week 18 versus the Titans – hence the massive spread.

But if Jacksonville plays starters throughout, laying double digits against a familiar opponent is rarely a comfortable bet in Week 18. The cleanest stance here is simply caution: Jacksonville may be the right side to win outright, but the number might just be big enough to justify a pass.

Tony Pollard is 66 rushing yards away from 1,100 ($250K bonus). Also need two rushing TDs.

Trends:

Props:

• Tony Pollard: OVER 66.5 rushing yards
• Tony Pollard: Anytime TD (+180)

---

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Erickson's Pick: Broncos -13.5

Confidence: ★★★

Overall:

The Broncos won the AFC West in Week 17. Win Week 18, and they lock in the No.1 seed.

The Chargers will be an AFC wildcard team regardless of what happens in Week 18. I'd imagine they rest the guys in preparation for the postseason.

It was announced on Tuesday that Justin Herbert would sit, and we saw massive line movement toward the Broncos. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton also won’t play, as he is dealing with an ankle injury.

I took Denver -7.5 early on Monday, anticipating the Bolts resting their star QB. I’ll sit on that ticket, but would still lean Denver laying the points in a must-win, playoff-clinching scenario. They were in a similar situation last year and beat the Chiefs JV squad 38-0 as 10.5-point home favorites.

Trends:

• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Chargers and Broncos.
• Four of the Broncos’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Chargers have covered nine straight in the AFC West (Winners of seven in a row).
• The Chargers have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
• The Chargers are 3-4 ATS on the road this season. 4-1 ATS as road underdogs since last season.
• The Broncos have won each of their last 12 games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points). The Broncos are 8-1 at home this season, but just 4-5 ATS.
• Denver is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite. 2-9 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025.
• The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
• Twelve of the Broncos' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

---

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Erickson's Pick: Chiefs -5.5

Confidence: ★★★

Overall:

Geno Smith has a high ankle sprain. Pete Carroll says he is anxious to see Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell play if they get the chance this week (both will play). Translation.

The tank is ON. Do not overthink this game, mainly because the Raiders' incentives are obvious. If Las Vegas is limiting veterans and protecting key defenders, it becomes extremely difficult to trust them in any serious betting capacity - even against a flawed opponent trotting out a third-string QB.

Kansas City benefits from coaching and preparation resting edges, having played on Christmas, and it's easier to bet a functional structure than a team actively operating with constraints. The lean is for the Chiefs, with the acknowledgment that this is not a "fun" bet, but a logical one if the Raiders are truly playing with their hands tied. They will undoubtedly find a way to lose this game in the second half.

But I’m not sure it will come at the expense of Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders’ rookie RB is 112 rushing yards away from 1,000. And the coaching staff (specifically, Pete Carroll) is aware that it is within striking distance. Another record that the Raiders’ rookie RB can hit is the rookie record for total yards from scrimmage. Currently, it’s held by Josh Jacobs (1317 yards). Just needs 90 yards from scrimmage (line should be set somewhere around 80-100 yards).

For the Chiefs, it was confirmed earlier this week that Travis Kelce will play in the last game of the regular season.

Trends:

• The Raiders have lost each of their last 10 games (12 straight losses as underdogs).
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games.
• Each of the Chiefs’ last eight games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games as favorites.
• Fourteen of the Raiders' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games as underdogs, 75% (4-8 in their last 12 games, 66%).

---

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Erickson's Pick: Under 39.5 + Eagles -4.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

The Eagles can move up to the second seed if they win and the Bears lose. They already beat the Commanders 29-18 back in Week 16 (also covered the 7-point spread).

Now, the only reason this line isn’t bigger is that Nick Siranni indicated the Eagles will be resting their starters.

It was announced later in the week that Tanner McKee would make his second career start on Sunday for the Eagles.

Dallas Goedert has been nursing a knee injury and is likely to miss the game. Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, Jaelan Phillips, and Lane Johnson are additional starters who don’t seem likely to play.

Marcus Mariota will miss the game for the Commanders. Hello, Josh Johnson. The Commanders also lost another starting offensive lineman (center Tyler Biadasz) last week.

Trends:

• Teams are 2-2-11 toward the Over in their game following a matchup versus Dallas. The Lasso Lag!
• Philly has scored 26-plus points in the last four games versus the Commanders, coached by Dan Quinn.
• When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense, they are 11-4 toward the Under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 30-8 toward the OVER (79%).
• The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Eagles have won each of their last 11 home games against NFC East opponents.
• Seven of the Eagles’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Eagles have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Eagles are 19-8 ATS after a win since 2024 (69% – best mark in the NFL).
• The Eagles are 11-20-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20+ points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  The Eagles are 22-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (75%).
• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (5-1 SU); 1-5 toward the over.
• The Eagles are 6-12 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (<44 PPG).
• Eleven of the Eagles' last 15 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Marcus Mariota is 3-5 ATS this season – but 6-2 toward the Over. Covered in two of his home starts.

---

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Erickson's Pick: Jets +8

Confidence: ★★★

Overall:

Last home game at the Bills' old stadium. But playoff-wise, they have nothing much to play for-most likely a 6th or 7th seed. The Chargers are already shutting down their starting QB, so a Bills win would put them up for the No. 6 seed. But is that really worth it?

Josh Allen (foot) underwent X-rays after Sunday’s 13-12 loss. If Buffalo were wise, they'd punt Week 18 and get Allen healthy for the playoffs. Literally all that matters for them to make a run. Whether Buffalo wins any postseason game relies solely on the shoulders of their Superman QB and star RB.

Player incentives would be for James Cook to stay the NFL's leading rusher (Sean McDermott noted this rushing title this week). Ahead of Jonathan Taylor by 47 rushing yards. Note that JT plays first – so Buffalo will know the exact number needed for Cook to lock down the 2025 rushing crown. Worth noting that Derrick Henry is 137 yards behind Cook’s 1606 yards. Not impossible that the King reclaims his throne with another monster game. He has 128 rushing yards or more in two straight games. Also has 94 yards or more in 3 straight versus the Steelers defense.

The core point here was that the market was overstating Buffalo's urgency early in the week (Jets +10.5) and understating the possibility that the Bills protect Josh Allen's health. If Buffalo's seed is relatively fixed and Allen is still dealing with nagging issues, there's a strong argument they won't push their starters into maximum exposure just to cover a big number. That opens the door for the Jets - even as a miserable team - to cover a larger spread simply because Buffalo's game plan could be conservative or shortened.

Buffalo will already be without starting LB Terrel Bernard for Week 18.

I took the points with New York on Monday’s early lookahead show, expecting the line could move further in that direction as rest narratives pick up steam.

So far, the CLV is on my side.

Buffalo was in a similar situation last season in Week 18. Allen started to continue his streak of consecutive starts, but Mitchell Trubisky played basically the entire game. The Bills were also favored by 3.5 points versus a 3-win Patriots team, and lost 23-16.

Breece Hall said after Sunday’s 42-10 loss to the Patriots that his knee is fine and the running back noted that he doesn’t think he’ll need testing on it, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. Isaiah Davis (concussion) was ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s contest against New England.

Trends:

• The Bills have won each of their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their last nine games against the Jets.
• The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Jets.
• Four of the Jets’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Sixteen of the Jets' last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Jets are 0-6 as underdogs ATS in the AFC East.
• The Jets have lost each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Bills have won 16 of their last 18 home games.

---

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Erickson's Pick: Props

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

The Pats win, and the Broncos lose, giving NE the No. 1 seed. Still, I think Mike Vrabel values health above all else. The Pats are already locked into a 1, 2, or 3 seed. Vrabel says starters who are healthy will play. But I’d bet that anybody carrying even a minor injury designation will be riding the pine in Week 18.

Still, Miami has a bunch of defensive injuries - and perhaps Vrabel wants to add more fuel to the fire of Drake Maye's MVP campaign.

Dolphins S Minkah Fitzpatrick remains day to day with a calf injury, per Mike McDaniel - Fitzpatrick "doesn't want to be shut down."

However, despite Fitzpatrick’s efforts, he looks like he will miss this game.

Stefon Diggs is eight catches from $500K-also, 30 receiving yards from 1,000 yards (500K). TBD on Diggs’ playing status based on the recent allegations against him, so wait till we hear more news before firing any Diggs-related props.

If anything, it’s more of a reason to fire on Hunter Henry props. Henry has contract incentives for 60 and 65 receptions (currently at 55 receptions).

Henry's prop line is usually around 3.5 receptions. Dolphins are allowing the second-most catches to TEs this season (6.5 per game). No, Fitzpatrick makes this an easy bet to make.

Drake Maye has at least 244.5 passing yards in 8/9 games played.

De'Von Achane is 33 yards away from the second-highest rushing season in Dolphins' history. Achane has now recorded 90+ scrimmage yards in 11 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. His 10 games with 100+ scrimmage yards this season are tied for the second-most by a player in Dolphins franchise history, trailing only Ricky Williams, who recorded 12 such games in 2002. However, Achane is banged up, dealing with a shoulder injury that has forced him to miss practices. He did not practice on Friday and is doubtful to play.

Quinn Ewers has played the last two weeks, showing he is not afraid to be aggressive with the football. He'll start again this week.

However, the weather projections are for sub-25 degrees with a chance of snow. Rookie QB on the road with a banged-up supporting cast is not a recipe for success.

Trends:

• The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against the Patriots.
• Each of the Patriots’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Dolphins have dropped nine in a row ATS as underdogs after a win.
• One Dolphins game (Week 16) has exceeded 44 points since Week 6.
• The Dolphins have lost six of their last eight road games.
• The Dolphins have lost seven of their last eight road games as underdogs.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games as road underdogs.
• Twelve of the Dolphins' last 18 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Miami is just 5-12 ATS as a road underdog dating back to 2023
• The Patriots are 4-4 ATS at home this season (9-0 on the road).
• The Pats are 3-1 SU as underdogs this season (0-1 as home underdogs).
• Eleven of the Patriots' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Props:

• Hunter Henry: OVER 3.5 receptions
• Drake Maye: OVER 244.5 passing yards

---

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Erickson's Pick: Cardinals +9.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Overall:

The Rams can't be the No. 1 seed or win the division.

Early in the week, I was vocal about grabbing the Cardinals with the points, as I think the Rams won't play their guys in a game that is only related to seeding. Sean McVay has shown in the past that he doesn't care too much for seeding, valuing health over everything else.

Now the loss to Atlanta on MNF compounds this idea - given the Rams don't even control their path to the No. 5 seed because the 49ers need to lose on Saturday.

The Rams must beat the Cardinals and have the Seahawks beat the 49ers on Saturday night. Los Angeles' game against Arizona may not even matter, as the 49ers’ win over the Seahawks on Saturday would lock the Rams into the No. 6 seed regardless.

McVay said after the loss to Atlanta that the starters will play in Week 18.

"Oh, we're playing. Yeah, they're playing." And he was very assertive, saying that this was always going to be the decision regardless of Week 17's outcome. But to what extent the “starters” play till…remains to be seen. Conventional thinking would suggest it won’t be for all four quarters.

Davante Adams and Blake Corum seem unlikely to play, given the recency of their injuries among others.

Arizona has clear player-driven motivations too, with individual milestones and record-chasing potentially shaping play-calling, primarily through the air. If the Cardinals are trailing, they can still throw their way into relevance and cover, and that dovetails with the Michael Wilson yardage angle if he's being featured as a focal point. The cleanest version of the play is simply Arizona plus the points, because you don't need them to be the better team-you just need the Rams to be measured with starters and Arizona to keep throwing.

Michael Wilson needs 93 yards to get to 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He has over 65.5 receiving yards in 3/4 games played without Harrison Jr. in the lineup (118-plus in 3/4 games). Averaged 125 yards per game with Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. got injured again last week and has already been ruled out for Week 18. A la - that means targets are coming their way for Wilson. Take all the overs.

Trends:

• The Cardinals are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback (1-7 in the last eight starts). They are 8-4 toward the OVER.
• The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
• All but six games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-8 record in close games).
• Trey McBride has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Cardinals' last eight games as road underdogs.
• The Rams are 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS in the last Week 17/18 games without Matthew Stafford.
• The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• Rams are 5-5 ATS as home favorites since 2024
• Rams as home favorites O/U since last season: 2-8. 4-12 since 2023.
• Eight of the Rams' last 10 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Rams’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.

Props:

• Michael Wilson OVER 68.5 receiving yards

---

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Erickson's Pick: Under 50.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Overall:

The Bears won the division but can't get the No. 1 seed after losing to the 49ers on SNF. Currently, they hold the No. 2 seed but could fall to the No. 3 seed if they lose and the Eagles win.

No way Dan Campbell lays down to Ben Johnson after they lost last week. Are the Lions really going to fail to cover the spread in four straight games?

Still, we have to acknowledge they have defensive injuries, including Alex Anzalone and Alim McNeil. Also, Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing through an injury (considered day-to-day, questionable to play on Sunday). However, stud tackle Penei Sewell has been ruled out.

Detroit outdoors in January is also a tough sell (Jared Goff is an indoor cat), especially if the Lions are dealing with injuries or limiting key players, and Chicago's incentive level may not be "full throttle" if their seeding range is relatively narrow.

Detroit should still show pride and play inspired under Campbell, but that doesn't automatically translate into points - it can also mean a more physical, defense-forward script. With the number sitting high, the under was the preferred angle I wanted to take.

50.5 points is a ton for a Bears’ home game in January with the weather forecasting for 25 degrees with an 18-degree wind chill.

Caleb Williams is 270 yards away from 4,000 passing yards. Has gone over 236.5 in three straight. The Lions have allowed 5/6 QBs to throw for 234-plus, with four going for at least 266 yards. Williams has eight career games with 270 passing yards, including at home last season versus the Lions (334 passing yards).

Trends:

• The Bears have won each of their last six home games.
• The Lions have won the first half in each of their last six games against the Bears.
• Each of the Bears’ last four home games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Lions' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Bears are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite (85% ATS) since the start of last season.
• The Bears have won 14 of their last 20 home games.
• The Bears have the No.1 record ATS at home since
• Caleb Williams entered the NFL (69%, 10-4-1).
• The Bears are 7-8 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 44 points per game (PPG). The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2024 (2-0 this season).
• As home favorites, the Bears are 3-6 O/U since 2024 (1-4 O/U this season).
• The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• When the Lions have played on the road outdoors as underdogs this season, 1-3 O/U.

Props:

• Caleb Williams: OVER 236.5 passing yards