Navigate

NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 5)

by |

Week 4 of the NFL season gave us plenty of upsets, surprises, and some bad beats.

And of course...the one week I'm not on the BettingPros Show...I go 4-1 with my top-5 best bets (ATS/totals). The props tanked...but luckily, MY replacement, Pat Fitzmaurice, stepped up BIG TIME.

The official plays are up to 10-16-1 so far through four weeks.

Now let's turn the page and attack the full main Sunday slate for Week 5

Week 5's Sunday slate is packed with heavyweight matchups and sneaky betting edges.

From showdowns like Broncos-Eagles, bettors have no shortage of angles to attack. I'll help you identify where the sharp money is heading, which totals are mispriced, and which player props offer the most value. Think of this as your roadmap for finding winners across the full slate.

Whether you’re building Same Game Parlays (SGPs), locking in best bets against the spread, or hunting for value in the player props market, we’ve got you covered.

This primer breaks down every matchup with actionable angles – sides, totals, live bet leans, and player props – to help you get ahead of the market.

Plus, with the new BettingPros App, you’ll get instant alerts when a line hits your target, so you never miss the best number. Your 3-day free trial is waiting in the BettingPros app.

And if you haven't been using the Betting Prop Bet Cheat Sheet...well, there's no better time than now!

  • 5-star picks are hitting at a 63% clip. +82 units and a 21% ROI (Weeks 1-4). Smart prop bets, backed by data, not guesswork.
  • New users get 6 MONTHS of BettingPros Premium FREE (a $70 value) and a 90% deposit bonus from Novig (up to $45).

 Just deposit & place a trade with Novig!

NFL Week 5 Betting Primer (2025)

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • MIA/CAR over 44.5
  • Saints ML
  • Bengals +10.5
  • Buccaneers +3.5
  • Cardinals -7.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:


Erickson’s Pick: Texans ML

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Why:

  • Texans’ defense is the best unit on the field
  • Ravens are severely depleted on both offense/defense

Trends

Sides:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 games following a loss.
  • Baltimore is 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2021 (Second-best ATS record)
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 24 games and are 9-13-1 ATS since the start of 2024.
  • The Texans are 3-4-1 ATS as road favorites and 10-10-1 on the road ATS since C.J. Stroud became the team's starting QB.

Totals:

  • Each of the Ravens’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Ravens’ last nine games following a loss has gone OVER the total points line.
  • 16 of the Texans' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Texans finally got their first win of the season last week against the lowly Titans. It was also their first game in 2025, not decided by one score. Although Houston was pressing their luck to keep it a one-score game...as the score was 6-0, entering the fourth quarter.

Houston doesn't blow out other teams. Thirteen of the Texans’ last 21 wins have been by seven or fewer points. Lucky for us, they only need to beat Baltimore by an FG to cover the spread.

I wouldn't mess with the spread here. Take the Texans on the ML to beat an undermanned and severely depleted Ravens team that will be without starting QB Lamar Jackson.

Cooper Rush will start and has been solid in relief. 9-5 ATS record according to BetMGM. 2-0 when he was favored, so just slightly positive ROI as an underdog. And it was short spreads where Rush thrived...7-1 ATS at +6 or shorter. It's this record why I am gun-shy on the Texans ATS. This game will be close, but I think the Texans’ defense will make just enough plays/stops to get Houston a narrow road victory.

Terrell Furman Jr. gave out the Texans as one of his best bets this week on the BettingPros NFL Week 5 show.

Here are some of his tidbits...

"Baltimore is 4-9 without Lamar Jackson, averaging 16.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 33.3 PPG and piling up yards allowed. Houston's front anchors the No. 1 scoring defense, and even with C.J. Stroud below his rookie-year peak, he just completed 79% against Tennessee. It's also a revenge spot after Houston "scored two points against the Ravens in front of Beyoncé" last year. Lay the short number with the Texans.”

Worth noting that Rush faced the Texans’ defense last season with Dallas. They lost outright at home...34-10. One of the other few blow-out wins Houston has had in the Stroud era.

Prop Angles:

My best for this game will actually be on the QB...Cooper Rush. I expect this offensive approach to be a ton of Derrick Henry, and leave less for Rush as a passer. Rush went under his pass attempts prop in 6 of his last 8 games played in 2024.

Erickson’s Props:  Cooper Rush: Under 30.5 pass attempts

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Colts -7
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Why:

  • The Colts have historically dominated as favorites under Shane Steichen (especially at home)
  • Shane Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (65%, 10-5).

Trends

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 26 of the Colts’ last 33 games.
  • The Colts as favorites are 6-3 ATS since the start of 2024.
  • As a home favorite since 2023 - 6-2 ATS (75%) tied for the best mark in the NFL.
  • The Colts are 13-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Raiders have lost 14 of their last 17 games.
  • Over the last three seasons...Geno Smith is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog (7-6 straight up).
  • The Raiders have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Colts’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Raiders’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 9 of the Raiders' last 15 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Opened the week on the Colts’ side. They win and cover when favored at home. The team has played extremely well and seems to have every unit advantage over the Las Vegas Raiders...both offensively and defensively.

The Raiders’ offensive line is a major problem after losing OT Kolton Miller last week to an ankle injury. I'll lay the points with Indy at home. Bet on Shane Steichen when the market is also backing him.

Prop Angles:

The Colts lost No.1 slot CB Kenny Moore. They are a slot funnel defense (2nd-most PPG allowed to opposing slot WRs) and struggle defensively overall against WRs. Jakobi Meyers posted a strong target share at 33% in Week 4. Also saw a 59% air yards share (56).

Tight end Brock Bowers still seems to be hampered by his early-season injury, teeing up Meyers to be the No. 1 WR in this offense.

The Raiders QB also offers a decent passing floor when he is a road underdog. According to DraftKings Sportsbook...Geno Smith has recorded 206+ passing yards in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a road underdog.

If the Colts build a lead, we should see plenty of pass attempts for Smith to get Meyers over this yardage prop.

Erickson’s Props:

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5
Confidence: ★★★★(4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Trust the process. Close Your Eyes Special (at least in terms of the Panthers' playing better).
  • Carolina plays better at home.
  • Miami can only play well when they are at home and/or against another bad team

Trends

Sides:

  • In each of the Dolphins’ last five games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 17 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The home team has won each of the Panthers’ last four games.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in five of their last six games at Bank of America Stadium.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Panthers’ last eight games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 14 of the Panthers’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Dolphins’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Who am I...Terrell Furman Jr.? After the Close Your Eyes Special went 2-1 last week (Sean Payton cannot be stopped in Week 4)...I really wanted to go back to it. The Panthers got destroyed by the Patriots on the road in Week 4. But now back at home, I like them to rebound against the 1-3 Miami Dolphins, fresh off a Monday Night win.

And unless Miami is playing a bad team at home, you can't have any confidence in them.

Now I have to admit that the Dolphins have taken care of business as road favorites. Since 2023, they are 5-0 ATS. Mike McDaniel has shown he can also perform on a short week - going 5-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

Carolina's not "good" enough for me (even at home) to back against a Dolphins team that only really loses to good teams.

Therefore, I am pivoting to the OVER at 44.5 points. Both of these defenses are terrible.

The Panthers can't stop the run or put pressure on opposing QBs. Miami's defense ranks 31st in pass defensive efficiency, which should create opportunities for Young to produce at home (even if we need some garbage time production).

Prop Angles:

Tetairoa McMillan has surpassed 63 or more receiving yards in two of his four games played this season. He is clearly the Panthers’ alpha WR - with 8-plus targets in every game played this season. Miami's defense ranks 31st in EPA/pass attempt faced - only Dallas is worse.

Carolina ranks second-to-last in yards to TEs this season (32nd in DVOA versus tight ends). Darren Waller has a massive red-zone role in the Dolphins' offense and will get his fair share of looks given this week's matchup. No, Tyreek Hill should help Waller see additional volume - especially in the red zone.

Erickson’s Props:

Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Under 43.5 (Broncos +8.5 + Under 49.5)
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Eagles home games skew toward unders
  • Broncos play better as favorites. Tough to trust Bo Nix on the road.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Eagles have won each of their last 10 games.
  • The Eagles are 9-15-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just nine spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 17-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (70%).
  • The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games (winners in 10 of 10)

Totals:

  • Each of the Broncos’ last four games against reigning Super Bowl champions have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Broncos’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-1 toward the under this season.
  • Ten of the Eagles' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Eagles’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 5-8 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (45 PPG).

Overall:

The Eagles are doing their best "2024 Chiefs" impression: Winning close games despite being out-gained. Philly has been out-gained in all four contests this season, but stands at 4-0. The passing game? Well it depends on which half of which game you look at. Needless to say...it's been very inconsistent.

Eventually, Philly won't be able to keep winning all these close games (4-0 in close games) if they continue to underwhelm.

The offensive line has not been nearly as good as in past seasons. Lane Johnson has been banged up, and that has played a big role in their reduced performance. Via Next Gen Stats...the Eagles have allowed pressure on 43.7% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

The only two teams to have allowed pressure at a higher rate (Titans and Jets) are a combined 0-8 this season. Last season, they allowed pressure on 34.1% of dropbacks despite their quarterbacks averaging a time to throw of 3.05 seconds (3rd-longest), more than a quarter of a second longer than their mark this season (2.79 seconds).

Saquon Barkley has been a shell of himself. According to Next Gen Stats...Barkley has forced missed tackles at the lowest rate (10.4%) of all 43 running backs with 25+ carries this season.

In 2024, he forced missed tackles on 22.0% of his runs, still below the position average of 24.1%. His 2.6 yards after contact per carry is 7th lowest among the same group; in 2024, his 3.4 yards after contact per carry was the 18th most among 46 running backs with 100+ carries.

The Eagles are hardly what their 4-0 record says they are. Or what their 3-1 ATS record also says they are.

Denver tends to perform much better as a favorite than an underdog - and I'd be lying if I said I felt confident in Bo Nix on the road. Just 4-6-1 (41% ATS) since entering the NFL.

Terrell Furman listed the UNDER in this game as one of his best bets for Week 5...and I am 100% tailing this one. Eagles' home game trend toward the under...

The 4-0 Eagles lead the NFL in three-and-out rate (45%+), and Jalen Hurts has been pressured on 43.7% of dropbacks (4th-highest). Denver's defense leads the league in pressure rate (48.1%).

Fades the sides...bet the game total under. Or tease the total up along with Broncos +8.5 - as the Eagles have not shown they can beat anybody by more than one score this season.

Broncos +8.5 and under 49.5 points for -110 odds.

Prop Angles:

No. 2 WRs have thrived against the Broncos this season. They are 3-1 toward the over...and Tee Higgins was an illegal penalty call away from a complete sweep of the board in Week 4. DeVonta Smith doesn't see a ton of volume when AJB and Dallas Goedert are active...but with Patrick Surtain blanketing coverage on the Eagles’ No. 1 WR...is he even playing?

Smith's yardage prop has dipped dramatically after the Eagles’ abysmal passing efforts from the last two weeks. It's the lowest since the start of 2024.

Smith has taken over as the Eagles’ slot receiver and tends to play better at home.

Smith has also recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 appearances against AFC opponents.

The Broncos and Bo Nix cut it loose more when they are underdogs. He has hit his rushing prop in 9/11 games in which he has been an underdog. He's over in 3/4 this season and has averaged well over this number throughout his NFL career.

Nix has recorded 25+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last four games as underdogs.

Erickson’s Props:

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Saints ML
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Giants overvalued after Jaxson Dart's debut
  • Bet against rookie QBs making road starts.
  • Saints’ run game can overpower Giants’ poor run defense
  • No Malik Nabers for the Giants

Trends

Sides:

  • The Saints have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games.
  • The Giants have lost 14 of their last 16 games.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games.
  • The Giants have lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • New York is 6-11 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-14 straight up).
  • The Giants have lost 16 of their last 20 road games.

Totals:

  • Four of the Giants’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Saints' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

You know that both franchises were circling this game as "okay, this is the game we can win" while eyeing the 2025 schedule.

And although the market opened with New York as a small road favorite, the lines quickly shifted to the Saints being favored. We talked about NO-NYG on the early look-ahead show, and Joe/I agreed that we liked the value on NO then as small home underdogs. I think the market has moved the line in the right direction with the Saints as favorites.

It's going to be Jaxson Dart's first start on the road. And now that there's tape on him...it's easier for the Saints defense to game plan for me as opposed to the Chargers, who were flying blind against Dart in Week 4. New York doesn't have their best offensive player, Malik Nabers, and that figures to put a damper on the Giants' pass attack.

Dart can make plays with his legs...but so can't Spencer Rattler.

And the worst unit on the field is the Giants’ run defense...that ranks dead last in EPA this season...New Orleans figures to have a more balanced offensive attack to put less stress on its second-year QB.

The Saints run game came alive versus the Bills in Week 3. Per Next Gen Stats...the Saints totaled 189 yards and one touchdown on the ground in Week 4, with 165 of those yards coming after contact, the 3rd-most by a team in a game since at least 2018.

Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara forced 4 missed tackles apiece, gaining a total of 25 yards after missed tackles. Kamara (70), Miller (65), and Spencer Rattler (49) all contributed in the run game, with 35 of Rattler's rushing yards coming on scrambles, his most in a game in his career.

New Orleans is 0-2 at home SU and ATS this season, but both those games were one-score contests.

Spencer Rattler is 0-10 as a starter and might not get many chances to win as an NFL quarterback. I think his team goes all out for him this week to get him his first NFL win.

Prop Angles:

Because I believe in the Saints to establish the run and win...I love the under on Rattler's attempts. Keep in mind that the Saints' pass-driven volume has been 100% dependent on game script. They rank 5th lowest in pass rate over expectation. They want to run the ball. And I think they will be doing that here in Week 5 at home.

Erickson’s Props:

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Jets over 23.5 points
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Why:

  • The Jets offense has been underrated with Justin Fields
  • Dallas defense is awful - allowing at least 24 points per game this season.
  • The Cowboys rank last on opponent third-down and are giving up 420.5 yards per game and 33.0 PPG.

Trends

Sides:

  • Dallas is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2024 season.
  • Since 2023…4-3 ATS as an away favorite.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in four of their last five games after coming off overtime.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games at MetLife Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Jets have lost each of their last four games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight home games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Cowboys’ last seven road games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 14 of the Cowboys' last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Jets’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This game has the look and feel of an easy shoot-out. Right? Well, not so fast. Dallas' defense has been bad all year, but they have only finished 2-2 O/U. Both road games have fallen short with 44 and 45 points scored. We know that Dallas tends to play better at home....and these home performances (specifically in OT) might be overinflating the following week's lines.

But what remains true is that Dallas has allowed at least 24 points on defense in all four games they have played this season.

Fade the sides. Fade the entire game total. The Jets’ team total is the move to make.

Terrell Furman brought this one up on our BettingPros Best Bets show for Week 5, and it's another one that I am 100% locked in. A few notes he added to inspire faith in Gang Green:

“The Jets quietly move the ball, then "Jet it up" with fumbles and penalties (13 accepted last week) yet still outgained Miami by 104 yards. The run game is legit (top-3 rushing; historically high rush yards for an 0-4 team), and Justin Fields' full-start splits are strong (73.5% comp, 9.1 YPA, 286.5 total yards, 5 TD / 1 INT, 114 rating).”

The Jets' faults have been due to self-inflicted wounds and poor defense. But the offense hasn't been the problem. With Justin Fields, they have scored 21-plus points in both his full starts, totaling nearly 400 yards of offense in both games.

I was fooled by Dallas just two weeks ago against the Bears as small road favorites...after an OT game at home. I won't fall for that again. Keep in mind that Dallas might be without another tackle (Tyler Guyton) due to a concussion.

Prop Angles:

Justin Fields' passing yards prop looks like a SQUAD ride play for Week 5. Both Chris Welsh and Pat Fitzmaurice are "IN" on the Jets QB hitting the passing yards over against a terrible Cowboys defense.

Projections love the OVER across multiple sites. Fields has at least 218 passing yards in both of his full games played this season.

Dak Prescott has recorded 251+ passing yards in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Cowboys as favorites.

Erickson’s Props:

Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Cardinals -7.5
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Arizona tends to flip-flop between good and bad performances
  • Since 2024...they are 7-3 ATS after a loss (70%).
  • Brian Callahan has been the worst HC ATS since his hire at the start of 2024.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • No team has been better against non-conference opponents than Arizona since 2023 (80% ATS)
  • In 10 of the Cardinals’ last 11 games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Titans have lost each of their last 10 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 17 games.
  • The Titans have lost 19 of their last 22 road games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 9-14-1 ATS.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 10 games as home favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cardinals' last 18 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Cardinals' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

How many points do I need to bet the Titans? In all honesty...I need more than 8 points. Double-digits or I am all the way out on Brian Callahan's football team. Betting against the Titans’ head coach is the gift that keeps on giving. Callahan has been the worst HC ATS since his hire at the start of 2024.

After all, the Titans did the unthinkable. Losing to a team in blowout fashion (although the game was closer than the 26-0 final score) last week. The Texans don't blow teams out...and Tennessee fell very flat on the road in Week 4.

I'd expect more of the same this week against the Arizona Cardinals, coming off extra rest.

Prop Angles:

Let's have some fun, folks. Arizona has heavy home favorites should find themselves in a surplus of scoring opportunities. The Red Birds are down to their third-string RBs...creating a value proposition for bettors who want to take advantage of an ambiguous backfield -albeit in a great matchup.

Hello, Bam Knight. When asked about his RB room after placing Trey Benson on IR, Arizona Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon brought up Knight as part of the rotation. We could see 3 different RBs used between Michael Carter, Emari Demercado and Knight. But given Knight's long-shot odds (+500), I think he is the best bang-for-your-buck TD bet.

Erickson’s Props:

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (also live bet the Bucs)
Confidence: TBD (4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield historically thrives as a road underdog.
  • The Buccaneers are 15-5 ATS on the road
  • Since 2023, Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers are 8-7 straight up as road underdogs.
  • 12-3 ATS (80%) as road underdogs. Also, 11-4 ATS after a loss (73%) – 9 of last 10 games covered after a loss.

Trends

Sides:

  • The road team has won nine of the Seahawks’ last 10 games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as favorites.

Totals:

  • Seattle has averaged 43.5 points at home this season (1-1 O/U)
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last seven games as home favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last six home games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Buccaneers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I cannot guarantee a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ upset victory, but I feel great about them covering the +3.5-point spread here. Baker Mayfield’s track record as a road underdog is outstanding, and I hardly feel they are overmatched. Yes, Seattle's defense is top-tier, but Mayfield still has great offensive weapons to work with (even without Mike Evans and potentially Bucky Irving), and he’s not afraid to use his legs when he needs to. This bet is all about backing the moxie of the Bucs' QB when the market is counting him out. He still has Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin among his WRs.

Losing Irving is a big loss, but Rachaad White and Sean Tucker can provide solid depth. TB was likely going to struggle rushing the ball in this game anyway - as Seattle is best attacked through the air with RBs (most receiving yards allowed to RBs this season).

White will not put up gaudy rushing numbers...but he can/will post a strong receiving stat line.

And defensively, the Buccaneers defense can do what it does best against one of the league's run-heaviest offenses....stop the run.

Tampa Bay is 7th in run defensive efficiency this season. 5th-fewest rushing yards per game. Fewest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Third-highest stuff rate. Just 3.3 YPC allowed on outside tackle runs - what Seattle does best.

If the Buccaneers can stop the run and force some mistakes from Sam Darnold and a one-dimensional pass attack...they can win on the road. TB is second in pressure rate this season (47%).

The Bucs have been one of, if not my most profitable team to bet on, dating back to last season (Up 5.17 units for 91% ROI according to BettingPros).

Prop Angles:

In Mayfield's last 10 road games, he has hit the over on 16.5 rushing yards...9 times. In 7 of his last 10 road games...over 1.5 passing TDs. Including four of the last 5.

Erickson’s Props:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bengals +10.5
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

  • Home team getting double-digit points
  • Jake Browning has a better track record at home vs on the road

Trends

Sides:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last 14 road games following a home win.
  • The Lions are 28-12 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 25-11 ATS over their last 36 games (72%).

Totals:

  • Seven of the Bengals’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bengals’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Lions’ last EIGHT games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Since Zac Taylor took over as the Bengals HC in 2019, no team has performed better ATS off a rest disadvantage than his team. 16-4-1 ATS (80%).

Everybody is calling for Jake Browning's job. But what else was there to be expected? Two road matchups versus the Vikings/Broncos - two of the better defenses in the NFL. Browning also underperformed in his first two starts back in 2023...before going on a run of 21-plus fantasy points scored in six straight games. Browning put up 27 fantasy points versus the Jaguars at home in Week 2. With the Lions coming to town in Week 5, I think we see the Bengals rebound. Ja'Marr Chase against a banged-up secondary - CB DJ Reed, CB Terrion Arnold and S Kerby Joseph - yes please.

Browning has played better at home than on the road. 6-2 as a starter at home...1-7 on the road. Also, much better ATS. Including the Jaguars’ win earlier this season, Browning is 3-1-1 ATS at home versus 1-4 ATS on the road.

Needless to say. Don't go selling your Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football stock...with the Lions potentially looking ahead to a Sunday Night Showdown versus KC in Week 6.

Trap game? Yup.

Bengals at home with double-digits? Who dey? Dey ME. Trust the process.

Prop Angles:

Ja'Marr Chase is averaging 165 receiving yards at home this season. But the projections say OVER.  The Lions are potentially down two CBs (DJ Reed was placed on IR)...Buy the dip.

Keep in mind that Patrick Surtain Clamp to Prop Champ. WRs have gone 3-0 over their receiving yards prop the week AFTER they face Broncos CB Patrick Surtain...yes, that EVEN includes Calvin Ridley.

Erickson’s Props:

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Chargers -2.5
Confidence: ★★(2 out of 5)
Why:

  • Chargers are excellent ATS at home under Harbaugh
  • Jayden Daniels is coming off an injury with depleted weaponry.

Trends

Sides:

  • The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers’ last nine games at SoFi Stadium.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 games.
  • The Chargers are 15-7 ATS since the start of 2024 with Jim Harbaugh as HC.
  • 6-1 ATS as a home favorite overall and ATS.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in 9 of their last 14 games.
  • Jayden Daniels is 5-5 ATS as an underdog.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four of their last 6 games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Six of the Chargers’ last seven games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Chargers' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Five of the Commanders’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 9-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 23-5 toward the OVER.
  • 11 of the Commanders’ last 16 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • In 8 of the Commanders’ last 13 road games, they have scored 23 points or fewer.

Overall:

Both offenses enter this game banged up. The Chargers are missing another offensive lineman (Joe Alt). The Commanders are missing more skill players...and Deebo Samuel popped up on the injury report with a heel injury. But Washington will get back QB Jayden Daniels, which is the biggest factor when handicapping this game. How effective will he be coming back from the knee injury?

Daniels will be wearing a brace on his knee for the first time. And this leads me to the best bet in this game. Under Daniel's rushing props. After Daniels got hurt last season (ribs), he ran a lot less. He was under 52 yards in three of his next four games, averaging fewer than 8 carries per game. With his rushing prop north of 45 yards (O/U 8.5 attempts) I'll take the under. Daniels is all that matters when it comes to the Commanders franchise....and I think they'll lean on the cautious side if they can. That being said...I think I do prefer the attempts under. After the Panthers game that he was hurt in last season....he was 0-4 toward his rushing attempts prop (never surpassed 7 carries).

As for the sides and totals, my leans are the Chargers and the game total under - but how Jayden Daniels plays coming off his injury will decide the betting outcome of this game. Could go either way...so I'll opt for the player props.

Prop Angles:

One of the top defenses versus tight ends this season is the LA Chargers. 7th-fewest yards and top-5 fewest targets allowed to opposing TEs. One TE they have faced has surpassed 40 yards. Zach Ertz has surpassed 40 yards once this season.

Per Next Gen Stats...No receivers have faced more double coverage than Keenan Allen (6, 1st) and Ladd McConkey (5, T-2nd) this season.

McConkey has faced double coverage on 26 routes since entering the league in 2024, trailing only Ja'Marr Chase (38).

Ladd McConkey has been targeted on just 17.8% of his routes this season, down from his rate of 24.9% during his 2024 rookie year.

His target rate disparity is most notable from a wide alignment, where he has caught 7 of 9 targets for 104 yards but has been targeted at nearly half the rate (16.1%) he was last season (30.0%). Though he has been targeted less often, McConkey has recorded an identical catch rate (77.8%) while being targeted nearly three yards further downfield on average (12.7) when aligned wide compared to last season (9.9).

The Commanders are a good matchup for slot  WRs. SLOT Funnel. 3rd-most targets and 4th-most points allowed to slot WRs this season.  Washington has allowed a league-high 10.1 yards per target to pass catchers aligned in the slot this season.

Ladd leads the Chargers in slot routes and slot rate (65%). Most targets (16) have just not been efficient. Something has to give. Take the over. Ladd to the MOON.

Erickson’s Props:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App