NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 7)
Week 7's main slate features heavyweight matchups and revenge narratives from top to bottom. Whether it's divisional duels like Cowboys-Commanders (over) or sneaky totals spots (for unders) like Dolphins-Browns, there's value across the board. We'll focus on teams trending toward mid-season identity shifts - run-first squads meeting soft fronts, and over-performing defenses due for regression.
The official plays are up to 16-20-1 so far through six weeks. Starting to hit my stride over the last three weeks. Almost at .500. LFG.
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NFL Week 7 Betting Primer (2025)
Top-5 Best Bets:
- Browns -2.5
- CLE/MIA under 35.5
- MIN/PHI under 44
- Cardinals +7
- Broncos -7
Top Player Props:
- Drake Maye: OVER 1.5 passing TDs
- Caleb Williams: Under 30.5 pass attempts
- A.J. Brown: UNDER 60.5 receiving yards
- Isiah Pacheco: OVER 45.5 rushing yards
- Bo Nix: UNDER 18.5 Rushing Yards
Anytime TD Bets:
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Patriots to win AFC East (+185)
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 home games.
- In each of the Titans’ last 10 games, their opponents have been the first to 20 points.
- The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Patriots’ last nine games.
Totals:
- The Titans are 2-0 O/U this season at home (56.5 PPG)
- Each of the Patriots’ last six games as road favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Patriots' last nine games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Not touching this game this week. I "want" to believe that Mike Vrabel's hate of the Titans' organization will make this a blowout in the Patriots' favor.
But the HC dead-cat bounce is just betting 101 when it comes to NFL football.
Per the Action Network, 38 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-21 straight up (SU) and 22-16 against the spread (ATS) since 2023.
Last season's results: 1-2 SU and ATS.
- The Saints fired Dennis Allen - won outright at home as 3.5-point underdogs
- The Jets fired Robert Saleh, lost by 3 points to the Bills at home
- The Bears fired Matt Eberflus - and got destroyed on the road the next week.
One must consider that moving on from Brian Callahan is net positive. He was atrocious ATS as an NFL HC, boasting a 4-20-1 ATS (18%).
The general trends aren't great in backing TEN, but it just shows vast improvements for the team after firing their coach. Especially considering HOW terrible Callahan was.
The Titans will be better in Week 7.
Again, teams become average ATS after firing their HC. Considering Callahan was one of the worst HCs ever ATS...odds are in their favor to cover some games sooner rather than later.
Hence, my hesitation.
I don't aim to lay futures in the BP Primers, but I think the best way to approach the Patriots is just to take them to win the AFC East (+190).
Still close to solid 2-1 odds. They already beat Buffalo on the road, Miami/New York are trash, and the rest of their schedule is a cakewalk.
Keep in mind that every single year, we see teams go from last to first in the division.
In fact, since the 2002 realignment, only three times has at least one last-place team not finished 1st in the division the following year. One of those years was last season.
Twenty-five teams have achieved (worst to first) over the last 22 seasons.
The Patriots look like the team to get back on the trend in 2025.
Prop Angles:
Drake Maye has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of the Patriots’ last five games. The Patriots have heavily relied on their passing game this season, with the RBs struggling to take off.
Maye has thrown for 2-plus TDs in four of his last five games this season.
Stefon Diggs has the most yards and catches among WRs without a TD score yet this season. They have been desperately trying to get him in the end zone the last three weeks.
I’d also expect the Titans’ run defense to get a major boost if NT T’Vondre Sweat returns.
Erickson’s Props:
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Bears -4.5
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Saints have won each of their last eight games against the Bears.
- The Saints have lost the first quarter in each of their last six games.
- The Saints have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last five games.
- Spencer Rattler is 2-9 ATS as an underdog (18%).
- Caleb Williams is 4-2 ATS as a favorite (68%).
- The Bears are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite (75% ATS) since the start of last season.
- The Bears have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Bears have won 9 of their last 15home games.
- The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as favorites.
Totals:
- Each of the Saints’ last three road games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Saints' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Bears are 6-4 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 42 points per game (PPG).
Overall:
Caleb Williams tends to take care of business when he's favored at home. He plays better at home anyway, and I think this offense is starting to find its groove after their big week last week, post-bye week.
Give me the Bears laying the points at home versus the Saints.
Prop Angles:
This is the first game this year that the Bears will close as favorites.
In four games last season...Caleb Williams was 0-4 toward his pass attempts prop at 30.5 attempts as a favorite at home.
With the Bears unlocking their run game on Monday Night...I'd expect Williams to finish with fewer than 31.5 pass attempts.
He's been under this number in 3 of his 5 games played this season anyway.
New Orleans is also terrible against QB scrambles (32nd in EPA) so Williams will more likely take off and run, then add to his pass attempts number. Four of the 6 QBs that New Orleans has faced have attempted fewer than 27 attempts.
Note that D'Andre Swift did pop up on the injury report this week but is expected to play. Don't like the play nearly as much if Chicago's RB1 is out.
Erickson’s Props:
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Browns -2.5 (lean game total under 37.5)
Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Browns have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 home games.
- In each of the Browns’ last 11 games against AFC opponents, their opponents have scored first.
- The Browns have lost each of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
- The Browns have lost the first quarter in each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Browns are 6-5 over their last 11 games as home underdogs (SU)
- In each of the Dolphins’ last seven games, their opponents have scored last.
- Dolphins have lost 11 straight games as underdogs
- Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-14 overall since 2023. They are 5-15 as an underdog in their last 20 applicable games.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as road underdogs.
Totals:
- Each of the Dolphins’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Dolphins' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Browns’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Browns' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line (14 of last 22).
- Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 14-5 for the under at home.
Overall:
I've been fading the Browns the last two weeks, with their rookie QB making his first two starts in London and on the road against a well-rested Steelers defense.
Fading the Browns has been my cash cow - but the time is now to reverse course.
According to VSIN, rookie QBs are incredible bets as home favorites.
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).
Jaxson Dart is 2-0 ATS at home this season (2-0 straight up).
This also screams like a layup toward the under.
Rain forecasts in the showers.
The Dolphins are soft; the team is unraveling at the seams.
The Browns’ defense is the ’85 Bears at home. In Cleveland this year, they have faced Joe Burrow and Jordan Love. They covered both games.
At home, the Browns rank 2nd in yards and 3rd in pts allowed.
Bet ON a rookie QB making his first start at home and take the under with the forecast calling for heavy rain and wind.
The total has been bet down because of the weather, but I think this is just a case where the total can't go low enough. If you want a 40.5 number (my pick on the Week 7 best bets show)....take Browns ML with the under at 47.5 points (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook).
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Under 44
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Eagles have been the first to 15 points in each of their last nine road games.
- The Eagles have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
- The Eagles have covered the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Eagles have covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games.
- The Eagles are 9-17-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just nine spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- The Eagles are 17-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (70%).
- Eagles are 3-7 ATS after a loss since 2023 (33%).
- The Vikings have covered the spread in 7 of their last 11 games.
- All but 12 of the Vikings' last 37 games have been decided by eight points or fewer.
- The Vikings have won six of their last seven home games.
Totals:
- Each of the Vikings’ last three games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Philly is 3-7 O/U after a loss since the start of 2023 (the highest under hit rate).
- The Vikings are 7-10 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023
- 67% under hit rate as a home favorite (3-6) / 2-4 O/U as home underdog.
- Minnesota is 5-2 toward the UNDER with rest advantage under Brian Flores.
Overall:
Thinking the sharpest way to approach this game is to just bet the game total under. Both offenses are dealing with growing pains.
Minnesota is starting Carson Wentz, with J.J. McCarthy still dealing with his ankle injury. Per Next Gen Stats...Wentz has been sacked on 12 of his 39 pressured dropbacks this season, resulting in the highest pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL (30.8%).
Sacks kill drives...and lower scoring potential. Philly should also be getting back both CB Quinyon Mitchell and Jalen Carter after they missed the majority of the Giants' game in Week 6.
As for the Eagles offense. Not good. In fact, it is potentially worse than you might think.
2025 Eagles offense: 23rd in EPA/play, 28th in yards per play, and 30th in yards/game.
Brian Flores' defense is always a tough draw, and this unit doesn't give up chunk plays. Per Next Gen Stats...the Vikings’ defense has allowed three completions for a league-low 81 yards across six deep targets this season, making them the only defense to have allowed fewer than 100 deep passing yards through six weeks.
Prop Angles:
Jalen Hurts has recorded an average time to throw of 3.16 seconds when facing zone coverage this season, the longest in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).
As a result of his propensity to hold onto the ball, Hurts has been sacked on 10.5% of his dropbacks when facing zone coverage, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. Overall, the only quarterback to have recorded a lower success rate against zone than Hurts (38.8%) is rookie Dillon Gabriel (36.4%). The Vikings’ defense has recorded the 2nd-highest blitz rate (36.7%) and faced the 9th-quickest average time to throw (2.76 seconds) when deploying zone coverage this season.
A.J. Brown has averaged career lows in catch rate (48.3%), yards per target (5.0), and yards per route (1.1) when facing zone coverage this season.
Contributing to these figures is the rate at which Brown has had less than one yard of separation when targeted. In total, 11 of his 29 targets vs zone coverage have been tight window targets (37.9%), the highest rate among wide receivers (min. 20 targets).
The Vikings are also allowing the fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs this season (where Brown mostly operates from). They also lead the league in zone cover 2. Womp.
Over the last nine games that AJB has played with Smith and DG - he has gone UNDER 60.5 receiving yards in 6 of those contests. Under in 4/6 games this season.
Erickson’s Props:
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Raiders +12.5 and Under 46.5
Confidence: ★★★(3 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games against AFC opponents.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against AFC West opponents.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
- Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of 7+ points is 36-2 SU but 13-24-1 ATS.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Raiders.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in three straight games versus the Chiefs (14,8.5, and 10.5-point underdogs).
- In each of the Raiders’ last eight games as road underdogs, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
- Over the last three seasons…Geno Smith is 9-5 ATS as a road underdog (7-7 straight up).
Totals:
- Each of the Chiefs’ last six home games against AFC West opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-one of the Chiefs' last 30 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Raiders' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
I'm old enough to remember the Chiefs coming nowhere close to covering spreads this large. The market sentiment on KC is that they are all the way back. Vibes are at an all-time high, the band is back together with WR Rashee Rice, etc.
But 12.5 points in a divisional matchup just seems like so much. I get the large spread, as the Raiders’ offense has struggled this season with Geno Smith. Brock Bowers is likely out. Jakobi Meyers is banged up.
But the Raiders defense has always played Patrick Mahomes tough. Over the last two seasons, KC has been held to under 21 points twice versus Las Vegas.
KC hasn't covered against divisional opponents in 6 straight games.
If you are gun-shy about taking the Raiders with the points, then take the game total under.
Chiefs home games heavily skew toward the under (6-14 0/U as home favorites since 2023).
The only way the Raiders keep this close is if the defense shows up in some capacity.
Prop Angles:
Isiah Pacheco has gone over his rushing prop in four straight games. The former Rutgers RB has been HEATING up.
The snap share continues to climb. 77% in Week 6 (season-high in carries at 12), after a season-high number in Week 5.
It's trending all the way up for Pacheco. Per Next Gen Stats, he had four rushes of 15-plus yards vs Detroit. He had four combined leading up to Week 6.
Pacheco also had three targets to Kareem Hunt's one (Brashard Smith drew 4). More importantly, the Chiefs RB had four red-zone carries to Hunt's one. Hunt had just five routes to Pacheco's 19 (50%).
PACHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU WRECK YOURSELF.
The Raiders use a ton of stacked boxes-the highest rate in the NFL (48%).
Pacheco - vs stacked boxes? 7.5 ypc. (3rd highest). 4th in success rate.
They said on the broadcast last Sunday night that he's ready for a bigger load.
Rashee Rice is back, and that means Travis Kelce's numbers are going to nose-dive.
He played three games last season with Rice, under 35 yards in all three contests.
Erickson’s Props:
- Isiah Pacheco: OVER 45.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco: OVER 11.5 rushing attempts
- Travis Kelce: UNDER 38.5 receiving yards
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Under 41.5 (lean Jets ML – EVEN)
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Panthers have lost the first half in each of their last nine road games.
- The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 20 road games.
- The Panthers are 4-7 ATS on the road since the start of last season (36%).
- Bryce Young is 1-15 on the road as a starter.
- Carolina is 0-10 ATS as a favorite.
- The home team has won each of the Panthers’ last six games.
- The Jets have lost each of their last six games.
- The Jets have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last six games.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games at MetLife Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last nine home games.
- The Jets have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
Totals:
- Six of the Panthers’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Sixteen of the Panthers’ last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Ten of the Jets' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Which Panthers team will we get on the road in Week 7? The 3-0 team that always wins/covers at home as an underdog? Or the 0-3 away team that looks absolutely abysmal at times.
Their stark road/home splits are terrifying.
Meanwhile, you've got the 0-6 Jets...who do not have No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson.
Offensively, you don't need to squint to see this game underwhelming.
MetLife Stadium is where totals go to die.
Best bet? Take the under.
The Jets’ run defense can stuff out the Panthers’ rushing attack more so than Miami/Dallas could. Fourth in DVOA versus the run this season. Dallas and Miami rank 28th and 29th, respectively, in those categories.
Also, the Panthers might be without starting guard Damien Lewis.
But the Jets aren't the only underrated run defense. Carolina is third in run DVOA this season. They have allowed 50 rushing yards over the last two games.
Both teams want to run the ball offensively, even though both defenses are top-5 versus the run.
Under. Under. And Under.
As for the sides....we know Justin Fields can't win if the Jets allow 21 points. The Panthers’ implied team total is right at that 20.5/21.5 number.
I think it's a gross, ugly, low-scoring game.
And I think the home team does enough to get the win. I also spent way too long looking at how OLB Patrick Jones might have been impacting the Panthers’ run defense. He was active the last two weeks after missing Weeks 3-4. He is out, and that might give the Jets’ offense the boost it needs to get over Carolina. FWIW…Pat Jones is PFF’s second-highest graded run defender on the DL for the Panthers.
Prop Angles:
Mason Taylor has at least four catches in three of his last four games. No Garrett Wilson, so we could see MT act as the jet's de facto No.1 WR. Carolina has been atrocious versus TEs this season...allowing 6.2 catches per game to the position.
Burned us last week, but I am going right back to it in a better matchup where volume should easily find Taylor's way.
Erickson’s Props:
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Broncos -7 + Under 40.5
Confidence: ★★★ (4 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Broncos have won each of their last seven home games (9 straight wins as home favorites)
- The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Giants have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games.
- Giants have lost 7 of their last games following a win.
- New York is 3-5-1 ATS after a win since 2023.
- New York is 6-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-15 straight up).
- The Giants have lost 17 of their last 21 road games.
Totals:
- Seven of the Broncos’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Broncos’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Denver is 5-1 toward the under this season.
- Five of the Giants' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- New York is 1-8 O/U toward the over after a win since 2023.
Overall:
Denver's run game should rebound at home against a bottom-tier Giants run defense (30th in run defense EPA), setting up Sean Payton's play-action menu for Bo Nix.
Chase the fade the rookie QB on the road trend (Jackson Dart already showed the split going 0-1 ATS in his lone road start).
Embrace Bo Nix as a heavy home favorite.
Denver's strong defense is going to make it tough on Dart. And to make matters worse, New York will also be without starting center John Michael Schmitz (concussion).
The Giants have been poor ATS after wins, further setting the stage for a Broncos cover.
For a live betting angle...wait to take the Broncos at a better number. New York has been great on their opening drives, so they may open up with a small lead. Be patient. Then strike.
And take the under.
For more analysis on these picks…check out the video below.
Prop Angles:
Bet on Bo Nix's rushing yardage under when he is favored.
Nix as an underdog? Rushing yards over. Hit it in Week 5. But as a favorite…we slam the UNDER.
Last three of his four games as a favorite this season? Under 20.5 rushing yards. Under in eight of his last 12 games as a favorite.
This prop is even better when Nix is a home favorite: Under in six of his last eight games as a home favorite.
Erickson’s Props:
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Over 48.5
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The home team has won nine of the Colts’ last 10 games.
- The Colts have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
- The favorites have won 28 of the Colts’ last 35 games.
- But since 2023, the Colts are 7-16 SU as underdogs.
- The Colts are 7-5 ATS as an underdog (4-8 overall).
- The Chargers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers' last 10 games at SoFi Stadium.
- The Chargers are 15-9 ATS since the start of 2024 with Jim Harbaugh as HC.
- 6-2 ATS as a home favorite overall and ATS.
Totals:
- Each of the Colts’ last four road games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Chargers' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line
- Eight of the Colts' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Only once this season have the Colts been road underdogs. And funny enough, it was in this same stadium against the other L.A. team. Although had it not been for a few knucklehead decisions from WR Adonai Mitchell, they would have likely won outright as 3.5-point underdogs.
Either way, the Colts’ underdog games have gone down extremely close to the wire...so I'm likely shying away from the sides here. They are NOT nearly as strong of a bet as underdogs compared to favorites. And last week...We saw some glimpses of "not-so-great Daniel Jones."
The Colts defense is also in very rough shape - especially in the secondary. CB Kenny Moore will return, but Charvarius Ward will miss the game after suffering a concussion last week.
The Bolts could also get back two key players on the trenches - OT Joe Alt and OLB Khalil Mack.
Fade the sides and bet the over in the dome.
Trends are heavy into the over. Jonathan Taylor should have a field day against the Chargers’ run defense that has recorded the 2nd-highest missed tackle rate (16.6%) and the 2nd-most yards after missed tackles (407) this season.
The Chargers will have their starting trio of WRs in Week 7 as well.
Prop Angles:
Allen leads the Chargers in RZ targets this season. The Colts’ secondary has been decimated by injuries, and they have allowed the league's second-highest passing TD rate. Look for the wily veteran to score again in Week 7.
I also kind of like the idea of a redemption arc for Adonai Mitchell. Going back to the same SoFi stadium where he made a costly mistake, his team needs him this week with Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin OUT with injuries.
Look for some of the overs on his receiving props (they will be extremely low). 5-1 anytime TDs for AD.
Erickson’s Props:
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Commanders over 26.5 points
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games.
- The Cowboys have scored first in each of their last nine home games against the Commanders.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Cowboys’ last seven games.
- The Cowboys have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Commanders.
- The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven road games.
- The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in 9 of their last 15 games.
- Jayden Daniels is 6-4-1 ATS as an underdog.
- The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
Totals:
- Eight of the Cowboys’ last 10 home games against the Commanders have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Cowboys’ last two home games has gone to overtime.
- Sixteen of the Cowboys' last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Dallas’ last three home games as favorites: 3-0 O/U.
- When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 10-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 23-6 toward the OVER.
Overall:
If you are looking for defense...Dallas ain't it. The game has a massive total, and the close spread suggests a close back-and-forth contest.
Money has moved Dallas to become a home favorite - with the Commanders down their top WRs. Terry McLaurin remains out...and Deebo Samuel will miss the game as well.
But the Commanders are one of the league's best running offenses. And Dallas cannot stop the run. Via Next Gen Stats...the Cowboys defense has allowed the 3rd-highest explosive run rate (17.6%) and the 2nd-highest success rate (51.5%) when facing designed runs out of 11 personnel this season. In Week 6 against the Panthers, they allowed Rico Dowdle to gain 96 yards across 16 carries out of 11 personnel formations, including three carries that gained 10+ yards.
Terrell recommended the Commanders' Team Total on the Week 7 Best Bets Show, and I think I agree. Especially with the line moving toward Dallas...
Commanders' team total is down to 26.5 points.
The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to go over their team total in 4 of 5. The Jets are the only offense to fall short versus Big D (shocker).
Prop Angles:
The Cowboys give up the second-most yardage to WRs. Rookie Jaylin Lane could see an expanded role with Samuel battling an injury.
Erickson’s Props:
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson’s pick: Cardinals +7
Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)
Trends
Sides:
- The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as road favorites.
- The home team has covered the spread in five of the Packers' last six games.
- The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games as favorites.
- Since 2023, the Packers have been 21-4-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-9 ATS. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
- In 12 of the Cardinals’ last 13 games, their opponents have scored last.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the Cardinals’ last six games.
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last four games.
Totals:
- Each of the Cardinals’ last five games at home as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Cardinals' last six games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Thirteen of the Cardinals’ last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Cardinals’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Packers' last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Ford Field in Detroit is well-known for being the "over" stadium. But Arizona actually boasts the highest over hit rate since 2023 (70%). Conversely, over that same time frame, GB has the 4th-highest over rate on the road (62%).
Green Bay is laying a touchdown on the road, but this is hardly a confident bet to make. Green Bay is 2-6 as a road favorite ATS (20%) and 5-2-1 on the money line since 2023.
Terrell Furman laid out the perfect case of why a Jacoby Brisett-led Cardinals team is the perfect bet to make this weekend on the BettingPros Week 7 best bets show.
"Brissett has covered +7 in 15 of his last 19 applicable games. Arizona has played all one-score games this season (2-6)."
In a higher-scoring game, give me the Red Birds with the points at home.